{"id":254628,"date":"2026-08-26T13:55:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-26T17:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=254628"},"modified":"2026-08-26T18:58:58","modified_gmt":"2026-08-26T22:58:58","slug":"the-0-27-210k-yes-on-initial-claims-seems-cheap-considering-the-median-estimate-stands-at-208k","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/the-0-27-210k-yes-on-initial-claims-seems-cheap-considering-the-median-estimate-stands-at-208k\/","title":{"rendered":"The $0.27 210K \u201cYes\u201d on Initial Claims Seems Cheap Considering The Median Estimate Stands at 208k: Aug. 26, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The last two prints of initial jobless claims have come in at 206k and 212k, and tomorrow\u2019s release is projected to arrive at 208k. The range of potential outcomes is particularly wide, however, as the Reuters poll of 37 forecasters stands at a minimum of 200k and a maximum of 215k. Meanwhile, the $0.27 210K \u201cYes\u201d contract<\/a> in Interactive Brokers Prediction Market appears to be cheap, as it should cost closer to $0.40 in my view since it\u2019s so close to the median estimate. Over and under, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 220k, 200k and 190k are going for $0.03, $0.75 and $0.88.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Consider the WEI 2.8% \u201cNo\u201d at $0.60<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Dallas Fed\u2019s Weekly Economic Index hasn\u2019t exceeded 2.71% for four consecutive weeks and in consideration of a slower pace of cyclical data in recent weeks, I don\u2019t think it\u2019ll come in well above that level in tomorrow\u2019s update. For this reason, I find the 2.8% \u201cNo\u201d contract<\/a> undervalued at just $0.60. Over and under in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, the \u201cNos\u201d at 3.2%, 3%, 2.6% and 2.4% are going for $0.90, $0.85, $0.37 and $0.13.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets. <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 26, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The last two prints of initial jobless claims have come in at 206k and 212k, and tomorrow\u2019s release is projected to arrive at 208k. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":225341,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-254628","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe $0.27 210K \u201cYes\u201d on Initial Claims Seems Cheap Considering The Median Estimate Stands at 208k: Aug. 26, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The last two prints of initial jobless claims have come in at 206k and 212k, and tomorrow\u2019s release is projected to arrive at 208k. 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The range of potential outcomes is particularly wide, however, as the Reuters poll of 37 forecasters stand at a minimum of 200k and a maximum of 215k. Meanwhile, the $0.27 210K \u201cYes\u201d in Interactive Brokers Prediction Market appears to be cheap, as it should cost closer to $0.40 in my view since it\u2019s so close to the median estimate. 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In this capacity, he is responsible for economic analysis, economic commentary and educational content focused on the economy. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Jos\u00e9 spent 6 years working as an economist in the United States government within the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). During his time with the U.S. government, Jos\u00e9 frequently led presentations covering economic conditions and forecasts for elected officials, political appointees and senior management. He also built economic models, consulted with private sector executives, contributed to the modernization of economic processes and gained recognition for predicting the inflationary episode of the 2020s. Jos\u00e9 has also been a professor of economics at the City University of New York and holds a master\u2019s degree in financial economics from West Texas A&M University. 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