{"id":254597,"date":"2026-08-26T14:02:19","date_gmt":"2026-08-26T18:02:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=254597"},"modified":"2026-08-26T14:02:22","modified_gmt":"2026-08-26T18:02:22","slug":"is-nvidia-more-important-than-the-fed-right-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/is-nvidia-more-important-than-the-fed-right-now\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Nvidia More Important Than the Fed Right Now?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nvidia earnings and the Fed are competing for investors\u2019 attention as markets weigh sticky inflation, rising Treasury yields and signs of pressure on the consumer. Jeff Praissman and Scott Bauer discuss whether Nvidia\u2019s results could ultimately matter more for markets than Jackson Hole, inflation data and the Fed\u2019s next move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Is Nvidia More Important Than the Fed Right Now?\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=wrik4-1b447e5-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-420\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 420<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hi, everyone.\u00a0This is Jeff Praissman with Interactive Brokers, and it&#8217;s my pleasure to welcome back to the IBKR Podcast Studio, Scott Bauer from Prosper Trading Academy.\u00a0Hey, Scott. How are you?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jeff, end of the summer coming up here, but I am great. How about you?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-0\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;m\u00a0doing well.\u00a0Yeah, it is crazy with such a late Labor Day. We still\u00a0got\u00a0one more week of summer.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-0\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I know.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-1\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But love having you come in every other week, discussion on the markets. And for those new to this, we just spend like a quick five minutes, Scott and I, just\u00a0kind of talking\u00a0about the week prior and the week ahead.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So&nbsp;without further ado,&nbsp;let&#8217;s&nbsp;kick it off.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-1\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All right.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-2\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So\u00a0Scott, last week the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index jumped to its highest level since 2021. Even\u00a0as like\u00a0easing price paid reading suggests that some inflation relief, the combination\u00a0doesn&#8217;t\u00a0really fit neatly in either the soft landing or the kind of re-acceleration narrative.\u00a0So which signal should investors actually be weighing more heavily right now, the strengthening factory activity or the cooling price pressures?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-2\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That&#8217;s\u00a0a great question, Jeff. We are getting so many divergent\u00a0reports,\u00a0economic data reports that are coming out here. Some\u00a0showing\u00a0acceleration in manufacturing, which is great for the economy. Reports\u00a0saying\u00a0that inflation is still sticky.\u00a0So\u00a0I think\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0very, very important\u00a0to really see what the bond market is doing.\u00a0So\u00a0the strengthening factory activity,\u00a0that&#8217;s\u00a0great. However, I need to see that continuing, right? This was&#8230; I\u00a0don&#8217;t\u00a0want to say it was a one-off. It was\u00a0a great number\u00a0from Philly Fed, but I\u00a0gotta\u00a0see that continuing before I can really buy into that.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-3\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah. And Scott, that leads me\u00a0actually like\u00a0perfectly into my next question. The S&amp;P 500 initially rallied last week that the Treasury would kind of ramp up their long bond\u00a0buybacks, but\u00a0then reversed as the 30-year yields climbed again on inflation worries.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We had Walmart&#8217;s worst week since 2022, adding to this unease, and then even other retailers like TJ Maxx, despite my wife&#8217;s best efforts, also slid 7%. So how much of last week&#8217;s volatility was really about the Fed versus&nbsp;kind of a&nbsp;genuine repricing of consumer inflation risks?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-3\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I think it was really about 50\/50, to be honest.\u00a0That\u00a0initial\u00a0pop that we saw after the news came out, the\u00a0initial\u00a0pop in bonds and rates going down. I think after that was digested in the news, the market said, &#8220;Eh, maybe that&#8217;s really not\u00a0gonna\u00a0work.&#8221; And as the yield started to climb again, and then like you said, we got that Walmart report.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I think\u00a0there&#8217;s\u00a0some definite\u00a0pressure on there\u00a0on the consumer.\u00a0We&#8217;ve\u00a0talked a while for the consumer trading down, meaning that some of the lower-cost retailers, like a Target, a Walmart, a TJX,\u00a0that&#8217;s\u00a0the place\u00a0they&#8217;re\u00a0going to. But then we get what happened\u00a0last week here.\u00a0So\u00a0I think overall\u00a0we&#8217;ve\u00a0got to be\u00a0very, very careful\u00a0on how the consumer feels and what their retail spending is like.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-4\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This week, obviously a lot of the key guys are in Jackson Hole, right? It starts\u00a0kind of toward\u00a0the end of this week, and\u2014\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-4\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;d\u00a0love to be there with him.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-5\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I know,\u00a0me\u00a0too. Well,\u00a0maybe more\u00a0so in the winter though\u00a0with\u00a0skiing. But we have Warsh&#8217;s keynotes on Friday. Also, as we always talk about, there&#8217;s always tons of data, right?\u00a0So\u00a0there&#8217;s\u00a0the preliminary annual payrolls benchmark revision the same day, and that&#8217;s sort of a data point for people that know that\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0historically reshaped the labor market narrative kind of more than any other single monthly jobs report.\u00a0So\u00a0if the revision and the speech kind of send conflicting signals, which one should traders actually trust more heading into September&#8217;s FOMC meeting?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-5\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u00a0don&#8217;t\u00a0want to be a contrarian, but I\u00a0think that\u00a0that revision is what we need to focus on. I think, what is Warsh\u00a0gonna\u00a0say?\u00a0He&#8217;s\u00a0gonna\u00a0come\u00a0out\u00a0and\u00a0he&#8217;s\u00a0gonna\u00a0tell us still that right now\u00a0we&#8217;re\u00a0not doing anything with rates, but if inflation continues to be sticky and manufacturing is picking up, they may have to be hawkish.\u00a0So\u00a0I think we\u00a0really need to look at that revision because that is something that the Fed is really focused on. If that revision is adding payrolls, boy, that&#8217;s\u00a0gonna\u00a0be tough for the market. If it is\u00a0relatively unchanged\u00a0or removing payrolls,\u00a0maybe that\u00a0takes a little pressure off.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-6\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We&#8217;re\u00a0toward the end of earnings season, but we got a big one tonight. We got\u00a0maybe the\u00a0biggest of the\u00a0bigs. Nvidia is reporting their earnings after the close today. And obviously, AI, AI, AI, right?\u00a0So\u00a0like, I mean, this is something that could really move the entire market, especially considering I think\u00a0there&#8217;s\u00a0a projected 600 billion spend on AI infrastructure this year.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So&nbsp;do you think Nvidia&#8217;s print&#8217;s&nbsp;gonna&nbsp;be&nbsp;the single most important data point this week, even ahead of all the stuff we just talked about with Jackson Hole and PCE?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-6\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I think the print itself is a little difficult to say, well, whether this is bullish or bearish for the market. We\u00a0have to\u00a0let it play out. We know that when the headlines hit and we see the numbers, things can change\u00a0real\u00a0quickly when we get Jensen Huang speaking about the numbers.\u00a0So\u00a0I do think, though, when the dust is settled, this is the most\u00a0important point. This is the leader. Are people still buying into the AI expansion, the\u00a0CapEx\u00a0that is being spent? If they start to see Nvidia\u00a0maybe waning\u00a0on that a little bit, that could put a little bit of hurt into the marketplace.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I do think this is more important than PCE, which we just got in Jackson Hole.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-7\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scott, as always,\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0great having you in the studio. You can find more from Scott at prospertrading.com as well as on our website, interactivebrokers.com. Click on Education, click on Podcasts or Webinars or even Articles. As always, Scott, love having\u00a0you in\u00a0here and looking forward to seeing you next, in a couple\u00a0weeks.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-7\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thanks a lot, Jeff.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nvidia earnings and the Fed are competing for investors\u2019 attention as markets weigh sticky inflation, rising Treasury yields and signs of pressure on the consumer. Jeff Praissman and Scott Bauer discuss whether Nvidia\u2019s results could ultimately matter more for markets than Jackson Hole, inflation data and the Fed\u2019s next move.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":914,"featured_media":254616,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[18442,15018,14545,912,1826,3762,9362,77,446,15769,570,850,8295,17708,21122,10995,1385,8235,17767,22108,15194,19392,910,18379,4109,4232,19738],"contributors-categories":[13576,16315],"class_list":["post-254597","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-podcasts","category-podcasts","tag-ai-infrastructure","tag-ai-investing","tag-ai-stocks","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-bond-market","tag-consumer-spending","tag-economic-outlook","tag-fed","tag-federal-reserve","tag-ibkr-podcasts","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-jackson-hole","tag-jeff-praissman","tag-kevin-warsh","tag-market-volatility","tag-nvda","tag-nvidia","tag-nvidia-earnings","tag-payroll-revision","tag-pce-inflation","tag-prosper-trading-academy","tag-sp-500","tag-scott-bauer","tag-stock-market","tag-treasury-yields","tag-walmart-earnings","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers","contributors-categories-prosper-trading-academy"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is Nvidia More Important Than the Fed Right Now?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/254597\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is Nvidia More Important Than the Fed Right Now? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Nvidia earnings and the Fed are competing for investors\u2019 attention as markets weigh sticky inflation, rising Treasury yields and signs of pressure on the consumer. Jeff Praissman and Scott Bauer discuss whether Nvidia\u2019s results could ultimately matter more for markets than Jackson Hole, inflation data and the Fed\u2019s next move.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/is-nvidia-more-important-than-the-fed-right-now\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-08-26T18:02:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-08-26T18:02:22+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/pod-20260826prosper_coverimage.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1080\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jeff Praissman\" \/>\n<meta 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