{"id":254060,"date":"2026-08-18T13:08:14","date_gmt":"2026-08-18T17:08:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=254060"},"modified":"2026-08-18T13:37:43","modified_gmt":"2026-08-18T17:37:43","slug":"fed-pause-likelihoods-at-71-for-sept-62-for-oct","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/fed-pause-likelihoods-at-71-for-sept-62-for-oct\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Pause Likelihoods At 71% For Sept., 62% For Oct.: Aug. 18, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets expect Fed pauses at upcoming interest rate meetings in September and October. Indeed, the curve has become much more dovish in the past few weeks\u2014just look at how the orange line below jumped above the purple in early August as it relates to next month\u2019s contract. The recent increase in the probability for \u201cno change\u201d arrives as economic data has surprised to the downside lately, with contracting payrolls, declining retail sales, plunging consumer sentiment and decelerating inflation strengthening the argument that the Fed should be increasingly patient on policy and turn its attentive to slowdown risk. Earlier this summer, the central bank appeared to be squarely focused on price pressures, but data signaling cyclical fragility are warranting a balanced approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 18, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets expect Fed pauses at upcoming interest rate meetings in September and October. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":184479,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[5,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[446,570,850],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-254060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-europe-middle-east-africa","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-federal-reserve","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFed 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