{"id":253998,"date":"2026-08-18T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-18T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=253998"},"modified":"2026-08-18T13:32:33","modified_gmt":"2026-08-18T17:32:33","slug":"the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\/","title":{"rendered":"The S&amp;P 500 Has a 5% Problem And It Could Decide What Happens Next"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br>The stock market may have found an unlikely ally: a valuation model that&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/topic\/expert-ideas\">failed investors for decades.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Ed Yardeni<\/strong>&nbsp;said on Monday that the Fed\u2019s Stock Valuation Model may finally be working again and is sending a surprisingly bullish signal for the S&amp;P 500. But there is one catch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 10-year Treasury yield cannot rise too far above 5%. That threshold could become one of the most important numbers for stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-chart-10-year-treasury-yields-have-remained-below-5-since-june-2007\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Chart: 10-Year Treasury Yields Have Remained Below 5% Since June 2007<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"635\" src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-492-1024x635-1.avif\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-254040\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-492-1024x635-1.avif 1024w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-492-1024x635-1-700x434.avif 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-492-1024x635-1-300x186.avif 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-492-1024x635-1-768x476.avif 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-old-fed-model-is-back\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Old Fed Model is Back<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The model compares the S&amp;P 500\u2019s forward earnings yield with the 10-year Treasury yield.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When the earnings yield is higher than the bond yield, stocks are considered undervalued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The forward earnings yield is the flip side of the forward price-to-earnings ratio. A forward price-to-earnings of 20 equals an earnings yield of 5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is the return a buyer gets on next year\u2019s profits, quoted the way a bond is quoted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yardeni named it after the model surfaced inside the Fed\u2019s Monetary Policy Report accompanying Alan Greenspan\u2019s congressional testimony on July 22, 1997. Fed officials never endorsed it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It worked through the 1980s and 1990s. Then it broke, showing stocks as cheap almost all the time, and missed the financial crisis bear market entirely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yardeni\u2019s argument is that quantitative easing broke the signal. With the Fed pinning the yield near zero, the comparison lost its meaning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-why-it-may-be-working-again\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why It May Be Working Again<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now Yardeni believes it may be becoming useful again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The reason is simple: Treasury yields have moved back toward historically normal levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Last week, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.68%. Based on that yield, Yardeni put the fair-value price of the S&amp;P 500 at 8,300.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The index closed Monday at 7,785.76.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That implies roughly 6.6% upside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The model therefore does not suggest that stocks are dramatically overvalued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Instead, it points to something more interesting: the bond market may now matter more than the stock market\u2019s multiple.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-then-comes-the-5-red-line\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Then Comes the 5% Red Line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yardeni\u2019s model becomes much less comfortable if Treasury yields push above 5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At a 5% 10-year yield, the model\u2019s fair-value P\/E would be 20 \u2014 roughly where the S&amp;P 500 trades today on forward earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That means another significant rise in yields could leave stocks with little valuation cushion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And there is a reason yields could keep climbing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-40-trillion-problem\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The $40 Trillion Problem<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">U.S. public debt has reached a record $40 trillion, including about $31 trillion in marketable Treasury securities held by the public.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, net interest paid by the Treasury has climbed to a record $1.1 trillion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That creates a feedback loop: higher yields increase the government\u2019s interest burden, while investors may demand higher yields if they become increasingly concerned about deficits and debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The risk Yardeni described is that \u201cBond Vigilantes\u201d, a term he coined on July 27, 1983, drag the yield toward nominal economic growth, which ran at 6.5% in the second quarter of 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Their message is simple: if fiscal and monetary authorities do not restrain the economy, the bond market can do it for them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-stocks-may-be-fine-until-bonds-say-otherwise\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Stocks may Be Fine \u2014 Until Bonds Say Otherwise<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For now, Yardeni\u2019s base case remains constructive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He assigns an 80% probability to his &#8220;Roaring 2020s&#8221; scenario and expects the 10-year yield to remain between 4% and 5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the warning is clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The biggest threat to the stock market may not be an earnings collapse or recession. It may simply be Treasury yields breaking above 5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And if that happens, the valuation equation Wall Street is relying on could change very quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted 8\/18\/2026 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/analyst-stock-ratings\/analyst-color\/26\/08\/61272609\/sp500-5-percent-problem-yardeni-fed-stock-valuation-model\">The S&amp;P 500 Has a 5% Problem And It Could Decide What Happens Next<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ed Yardeni said on Monday that the Fed\u2019s Stock Valuation Model may finally be working again and is sending a surprisingly bullish signal for the S&amp;P 500. But there is one catch.<\/p>\n<p>The 10-year Treasury yield cannot rise too far above 5%. That threshold could become one of the most important numbers for stocks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1128,"featured_media":236383,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13584],"class_list":["post-253998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-benzinga"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The S&amp;P 500 Has a 5% Problem And It Could Decide What Happens Next<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ed Yardeni said on Monday that the Fed\u2019s Stock Valuation Model may finally be working again and is sending a surprisingly bullish signal for the S&amp;P...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/253998\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The S&amp;P 500 Has a 5% Problem And It Could Decide What Happens Next | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ed Yardeni said on Monday that the Fed\u2019s Stock Valuation Model may finally be working again and is sending a surprisingly bullish signal for the S&amp;P 500. But there is one catch.The 10-year Treasury yield cannot rise too far above 5%. That threshold could become one of the most important numbers for stocks.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-08-18T14:45:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-08-18T17:32:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/sp-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Piero Cingari\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Piero Cingari\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Piero Cingari\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/2e1deb46bf9913df17d7a772edadc24b\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"The S&amp;P 500 Has a 5% Problem And It Could Decide What Happens Next\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2026-08-18T14:45:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2026-08-18T17:32:33+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 615,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 0,\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/sp-featured-img.jpg\",\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"Macro\",\n\t                \"North America\",\n\t                \"Region\",\n\t                \"Securities\",\n\t                \"Text Articles\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t                    \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\\\/#respond\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"The S&amp;P 500 Has a 5% Problem And It Could Decide What Happens Next | IBKR Campus US\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#website\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"primaryImageOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/sp-featured-img.jpg\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2026-08-18T14:45:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2026-08-18T17:32:33+00:00\",\n\t            \"description\": \"Ed Yardeni said on Monday that the Fed\u2019s Stock Valuation Model may finally be working again and is sending a surprisingly bullish signal for the S&P 500. But there is one catch.The 10-year Treasury yield cannot rise too far above 5%. That threshold could become one of the most important numbers for stocks.\",\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"ReadAction\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\\\/\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"ImageObject\",\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\\\/#primaryimage\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/sp-featured-img.jpg\",\n\t            \"contentUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/sp-featured-img.jpg\",\n\t            \"width\": 1000,\n\t            \"height\": 563\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebSite\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#website\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"IBKR Campus US\",\n\t            \"description\": \"Financial Education from Interactive Brokers\",\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"SearchAction\",\n\t                    \"target\": {\n\t                        \"@type\": \"EntryPoint\",\n\t                        \"urlTemplate\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"\n\t                    },\n\t                    \"query-input\": {\n\t                        \"@type\": \"PropertyValueSpecification\",\n\t                        \"valueRequired\": true,\n\t                        \"valueName\": \"search_term_string\"\n\t                    }\n\t                }\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\"\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Organization\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Interactive Brokers\",\n\t            \"alternateName\": \"IBKR\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/\",\n\t            \"logo\": {\n\t                \"@type\": \"ImageObject\",\n\t                \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\n\t                \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg\",\n\t                \"contentUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg\",\n\t                \"width\": 669,\n\t                \"height\": 669,\n\t                \"caption\": \"Interactive Brokers\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"publishingPrinciples\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/about-ibkr-campus\\\/\",\n\t            \"ethicsPolicy\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/cyber-security-notice\\\/\"\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Person\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/2e1deb46bf9913df17d7a772edadc24b\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Piero Cingari\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/piero-cingari\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The S&amp;P 500 Has a 5% Problem And It Could Decide What Happens Next","description":"Ed Yardeni said on Monday that the Fed\u2019s Stock Valuation Model may finally be working again and is sending a surprisingly bullish signal for the S&P...","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/253998\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The S&amp;P 500 Has a 5% Problem And It Could Decide What Happens Next | IBKR Campus US","og_description":"Ed Yardeni said on Monday that the Fed\u2019s Stock Valuation Model may finally be working again and is sending a surprisingly bullish signal for the S&P 500. But there is one catch.The 10-year Treasury yield cannot rise too far above 5%. That threshold could become one of the most important numbers for stocks.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\/","og_site_name":"IBKR Campus US","article_published_time":"2026-08-18T14:45:00+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-08-18T17:32:33+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1000,"height":563,"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/sp-featured-img.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Piero Cingari","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Piero Cingari","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\/"},"author":{"name":"Piero Cingari","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/person\/2e1deb46bf9913df17d7a772edadc24b"},"headline":"The S&amp;P 500 Has a 5% Problem And It Could Decide What Happens Next","datePublished":"2026-08-18T14:45:00+00:00","dateModified":"2026-08-18T17:32:33+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\/"},"wordCount":615,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/sp-featured-img.jpg","articleSection":["Macro","North America","Region","Securities","Text Articles","Traders' Insight"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\/","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\/","name":"The S&amp;P 500 Has a 5% Problem And It Could Decide What Happens Next | IBKR Campus US","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/sp-featured-img.jpg","datePublished":"2026-08-18T14:45:00+00:00","dateModified":"2026-08-18T17:32:33+00:00","description":"Ed Yardeni said on Monday that the Fed\u2019s Stock Valuation Model may finally be working again and is sending a surprisingly bullish signal for the S&P 500. But there is one catch.The 10-year Treasury yield cannot rise too far above 5%. That threshold could become one of the most important numbers for stocks.","inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/the-sp-500-has-a-5-problem-and-it-could-decide-what-happens-next\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/sp-featured-img.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/sp-featured-img.jpg","width":1000,"height":563},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#website","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/","name":"IBKR Campus US","description":"Financial Education from Interactive Brokers","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization","name":"Interactive Brokers","alternateName":"IBKR","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg","width":669,"height":669,"caption":"Interactive Brokers"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"publishingPrinciples":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/about-ibkr-campus\/","ethicsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/cyber-security-notice\/"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/person\/2e1deb46bf9913df17d7a772edadc24b","name":"Piero Cingari","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/piero-cingari\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/12\/sp-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/253998","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1128"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=253998"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/253998\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":254041,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/253998\/revisions\/254041"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/236383"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=253998"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=253998"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=253998"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=253998"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}