{"id":253796,"date":"2026-08-17T13:12:38","date_gmt":"2026-08-17T17:12:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=253796"},"modified":"2026-08-17T13:31:02","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T17:31:02","slug":"opinion-industrial-production-no-at-1-extremely-undervalued-since-consensus-is-1-and-prior-print-was-1-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/opinion-industrial-production-no-at-1-extremely-undervalued-since-consensus-is-1-and-prior-print-was-1-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion: Industrial Production \u201cNo\u201d at 1% Extremely Undervalued Since Consensus is 1% And Prior Print Was 1.1%: Aug. 17, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Tomorrow\u2019s industrial production print is expected to reflect 0.3% month-over-month (m\/m) and 1% year-over-year (y\/y) increases but the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets \u201cNo\u201d contract with a 1% y\/y threshold is priced at only $0.04. This contract is extremely undervalued in my opinion because it would pay $1.00 on a result in-line with expectations, or in other words, on a number less than or equal to 1% y\/y. Furthermore, this indicator was a close 1.1% in June and carries an elevated deviation rate, because it\u2019s difficult to predict on a relative basis. Emblematic of the potential for large swings is the monthly Reuters poll of 45 forecasters with estimates ranging from as low as -0.1% m\/m to as high at 0.6% m\/m. Against this backdrop, the \u201cNos\u201d at 1.5% and 2% are additionally attractive at $0.77 and $0.86 in my view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

US Gasoline \u201cYes\u201d at $4.05 Undervalued<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

I like the \u201cYes\u201d contract with a $4.05 threshold for this week\u2019s retail US gasoline prices as it\u2019ll require just a 1.2% week-on-week increase from $4.006 to deliver $1.00 to investors. The $0.35 cost for this contract is cheap, in my view, as pricing of futures for energy reflect a sharper climb of about 6 cents to $4.066 in this indicator. Over and under in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market, meanwhile, the \u201cYeses\u201d at $4 and $4.10 are going for $0.95 and $0.03.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYeses\u201d at 1.35 Million, 1.2 Million Cheap On Permits, Starts<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Tomorrow\u2019s new residential construction report will offer results on building permits and housing starts. Against this backdrop, I believe there are two potentially undervalued opportunities in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets tied to these releases. The \u201cYeses\u201d at 1.35 million and 1.2 million seasonally adjusted annualized units are cheap at $0.69 and $0.78 in my view because they\u2019ve only been breached once in the last 5 and a half years. Additionally, the economist consensus estimates are well above those levels, at 1.37 million and 1.35 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 17, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tomorrow\u2019s industrial production print is expected to reflect 0.3% month-over-month (m\/m) and 1% year-over-year (y\/y) increases but the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets \u201cNo\u201d contract with a 1% y\/y threshold is priced at only $0.04. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":181781,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[720],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-253796","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-industrial-production","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOpinion: Industrial Production \u201cNo\u201d at 1% Extremely Undervalued Since Consensus is 1% And Prior Print Was 1.1%: Aug. 17, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Tomorrow\u2019s 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In this capacity, he is responsible for economic analysis, economic commentary and educational content focused on the economy. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Jos\u00e9 spent 6 years working as an economist in the United States government within the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). During his time with the U.S. government, Jos\u00e9 frequently led presentations covering economic conditions and forecasts for elected officials, political appointees and senior management. He also built economic models, consulted with private sector executives, contributed to the modernization of economic processes and gained recognition for predicting the inflationary episode of the 2020s. Jos\u00e9 has also been a professor of economics at the City University of New York and holds a master\u2019s degree in financial economics from West Texas A&M University. His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/07\/EU-Industrial-Production.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/253796","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=253796"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/253796\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":253807,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/253796\/revisions\/253807"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/181781"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=253796"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=253796"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=253796"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=253796"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}