{"id":253622,"date":"2026-08-14T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-14T13:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=253622"},"modified":"2026-08-17T05:05:09","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T09:05:09","slug":"stock-market-dealing-with-yield-signs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/stock-market-dealing-with-yield-signs\/","title":{"rendered":"Stock market dealing with yield signs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Briefing.com Summary:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">*The July Retail Sales report was much weaker than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">*Longer-term Treasury yields have not responded in kind this week to the seemingly market-friendly inflation news.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">*Applied Materials is down after a good earnings report, hitting a wall of high expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The stock market had the inflation data break its way this week, which in turn helped the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, and S&amp;P 400 breakaway to new record highs. Strikingly, longer-term bond yields, which are more sensitive to inflation, didn&#8217;t breakdown to new lows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Coming into today, the 10-yr note yield was unchanged for the week at 4.64%, and the 30-yr bond yield was up four basis points to 5.23%. Why that is the case is open for debate, but supply concerns, deficit concerns, oil price concerns, and, yes, even inflation concerns, are all in the mix as possible reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Long-term rates, however, came down a bit in the wake of the Retail Sales report for July, which was weaker than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Total retail sales declined 0.6% month-over-month in July (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) following a 0.2% increase in June. Excluding autos, retail sales declined 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) following a 0.2% decline in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The key takeaway from the report is that control retail sales dropped 0.4% month-over-month. This figure will feed into GDP forecasts, so there are apt to be some downward revisions to Q3 GDP forecasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The headlines from the retail sales report were a bit of a shock, but it would be remiss not to point out that nonstore retailer sales were down 2.2% month-over-month, which can be attributed in large part to Amazon&#8217;s Prime Day sales event taking place in June. That doesn&#8217;t account fully for the weakness in July retail sales, but it did contribute to things looking worse than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Notably, the Treasury market hasn&#8217;t overreacted to this weak report. There was some knee-jerk buying in its wake, but as of this writing, yields across the curve are basically back at where they were trading just before the release.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The equity futures market, in turn, didn&#8217;t get too worked up about it either. Current indications are not far off at all from where things stood just before the release.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The S&amp;P 500 futures are up eight points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 81 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 63 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That is a recipe for a mixed and somewhat flattish start on this summer Friday, which might feel like a vacation day for the market, meaning some chop in narrow trading ranges as buyers and sellers alike lack conviction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The caveat is that larger swings in Treasury yields and\/or oil prices could alter that dynamic. WTI crude futures are currently up 0.2% to $81.45\/bbl, paying some heed to Treasury Secretary Bessent&#8217;s pronouncement that the U.S. will be implementing &#8220;unprecedented&#8221; economic isolation measures against Iran next week, according to Bloomberg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That news had been a focal point before the retail sales report, along with the downside action in&nbsp;<strong>Applied Materials (AMAT)<\/strong>&nbsp;after its good earnings report\u2014a move most have attributed to facing a wall of exceedingly high expectations after a big run for the stock, which is up 22% from its July 29 close\u2014and upside action in&nbsp;<strong>Reddit (RDDT)<\/strong>, which will be added to the S&amp;P 500 prior to the open on August 18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted August 14, 2026 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.briefing.com\/page-one\">Stock market dealing with yield signs<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Briefing.com Summary:<\/p>\n<p>*The July Retail Sales report was much weaker than expected.<\/p>\n<p>*Longer-term Treasury yields have not responded in kind this week to the seemingly market-friendly inflation news.<\/p>\n<p>*Applied Materials is down after a good earnings report, hitting a wall of high expectations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":27573,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13589],"class_list":["post-253622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-briefing-com"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Stock market dealing with yield signs | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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