{"id":253502,"date":"2026-08-13T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-13T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=253502"},"modified":"2026-08-14T04:25:51","modified_gmt":"2026-08-14T08:25:51","slug":"producer-inflation-unchanged-in-july-below-expectations-updated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/producer-inflation-unchanged-in-july-below-expectations-updated\/","title":{"rendered":"Producer Inflation Unchanged in July, Below Expectations (UPDATED)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><br>Editor\u2019s Note: This article has been updated to reflect the revised June Producer Price Index figure and to include additional content.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Producer Price Index (PPI) was unchanged in July, coming in below the 0.2% monthly rebound economists expected after June\u2019s upwardly revised 0.1% decline, the Bureau of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/news\/econ-s\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Labor Statistics reported Thursday.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The annual producer inflation rate eased to 4.7%, down from 5.5%, and below the 4.9% consensus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Core PPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.2% in the month against the 0.3% expected, with the annual core rate easing from 4.7% to 4.2%, in line with expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The print lands a day after the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 0.1% month over month, pulling annual inflation down to 3.4% from 3.5%, with core CPI up 0.2% and its annual rate easing to 2.5%, an in-line report that showed the energy-driven inflation burst continuing to fade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-where-did-producer-prices-fall-and-rise-in-july\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Where Did Producer Prices Fall And Rise In July?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Energy was the biggest source of relief.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Final-demand energy prices fell 3.1% in July after declining 2.8% in June. Gasoline prices dropped 5.7%, accounting for more than half of the decline in final-demand goods prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Food prices also fell, with final-demand food prices down 0.9%. Diesel fuel, jet fuel and residual fuel prices declined as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Not everything moved lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prices for motor vehicles and equipment rose 0.3%, while electric power and grains also increased. On the services side, final-demand prices rose 0.2%, which was considerably slower than the 0.5% increase in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One notable exception was portfolio management, where prices jumped 6.5% in July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Overall, final-demand goods prices fell 0.7%, while services rose only 0.2%. The result was a flat headline PPI reading for the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There was also an important divergence beneath the flat headline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prices for final demand less foods, energy and trade services \u2014 the gauge the Fed watches most closely for the inflation trend \u2014 rose 0.4% in July, compared with just 0.1% in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That suggests the disinflation story is not completely uniform.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-market-reactions\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Reactions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The market initially treated the report as another piece of good news for the Fed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 2-year Treasury yield fell to 4.163%, while the dollar slipped and gold moved higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">U.S. equity futures also edged up, with the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones and Russell 2000 all in positive territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The key number, however, remains the September Fed meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fed futures still imply a 38.4% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, against a 61.6% probability of no change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That probability has fallen from 55% one week ago and 51.2% one month ago for a hike, according to the market data in the chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In other words, the market is already moving toward a Fed hold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today\u2019s PPI report gives that move another reason to continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"633\" src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-369-1024x633-1-1.avif\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-253504\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-369-1024x633-1-1.avif 1024w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-369-1024x633-1-1-700x433.avif 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-369-1024x633-1-1-300x185.avif 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/image-369-1024x633-1-1-768x475.avif 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>&#8212;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted August 13, 2026 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/markets\/economic-data\/26\/08\/61172436\/producer-inflation-ppi-report-july-2026\">Producer Inflation Unchanged in July, Below Expectations (UPDATED)<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Producer Price Index (PPI) was unchanged in July, coming in below the 0.2% monthly rebound economists expected after June\u2019s upwardly revised 0.1% decline, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1128,"featured_media":206628,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13584],"class_list":["post-253502","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-benzinga"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ 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