{"id":253405,"date":"2026-08-12T11:18:36","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T15:18:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=253405"},"modified":"2026-08-12T11:22:05","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T15:22:05","slug":"is-the-economy-starting-to-crack","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/is-the-economy-starting-to-crack\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Economy Starting to Crack?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cooling labor data, persistent inflation concerns and the strength of the U.S. consumer are putting the economy under the microscope. Scott Bauer joins Jeff Praissman on this week&#8217;s IBKR Market Minute to discuss the latest jobs numbers, CPI and PPI, retail sales, Fed expectations and the market forces investors should be watching next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Is the Economy Starting to Crack?\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=yn59s-1b33fa9-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-416\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 416<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hey, everyone. This is Jeff Praissman with Interactive Brokers.\u00a0It&#8217;s\u00a0my pleasure to welcome back to the IBKR Podcast Studio, Scott Bauer from Prosper Trading Academy. Hey, Scott. How are you?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Great, Jeff. Yourself?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-0\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;m\u00a0doing well, and love when you come in every other Wednesday morning, talk about the market, talk about the economy.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For first-time listeners, we\u00a0generally talk\u00a0a little bit about the week before and a little bit about the week after.\u00a0And for more from Scott, you can go to prospertrading.com and also our website, ibkr.com. Click on Education and you can find all our old podcasts and webinars.\u00a0So, Scott, the labor market was a big story last week. What were some of the key takeaways from the jobs data and, you know, what does it tell us about the health of the US economy?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-0\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It&#8217;s\u00a0a bit different now this week than it was last week, right? After the report came out, yields pulled\u00a0back,\u00a0oil prices fell, as the July NFPs came in much lighter than expected. In fact, we saw\u00a0crude\u00a0down about 10% last week. Obviously,\u00a0that&#8217;s\u00a0rallied back quite a bit.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So&nbsp;what is going on? I mean, the labor market is softening. There was, you know, a lot of talk, maybe&nbsp;excuse&nbsp;that it had to do with the World Cup. Okay, great. We give that, but then what do you make of May and June also being revised lower by over 100,000?&nbsp;So&nbsp;I think that&nbsp;is certainly a concern moving forward.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-1\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As we always talk about,\u00a0there&#8217;s\u00a0no shortage of data, but looking at the broader picture, were there any signs last week\u00a0and\u00a0the beginning of this week that the economy&#8217;s accelerating or slowing? What sectors of the market appeared to respond most strongly to the data?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-1\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What&#8217;s\u00a0been on fire really are financials. I think\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a011 weeks\u00a0in\u00a0a row financials\u00a0have been up. We&#8217;ve seen kind of the, I don&#8217;t want to say the rebirth of the tech trade or so, but, but a lot of these stocks that were, you know, kind of, kind of left out there, you know, weeks ago are, are resurgent again.\u00a0And so, talk of\u00a0maybe that, that extended\u00a0CapEx\u00a0that people were concerned about, maybe\u00a0that was a little, you know, a little long in the tooth or so. So, you know, the economy\u00a0seems to be\u00a0doing well, but certainly the inflation data is going to be huge here.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-2\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We just had the CPI released this morning, and, you know, we have some important data coming out later this week, like PPI, you know, initial jobless claims, U.S. retail sales.\u00a0Let&#8217;s\u00a0kind of skip forward to the PPI.\u00a0So\u00a0what insight does the PPI provide that the CPI alone does not capture?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-2\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sure. Well, that looks at the\u00a0producer\u00a0side of things and not just the consumer.\u00a0We all feel it individually, personally on, on the CPI side, but PPI shows, you know, what are those businesses doing?\u00a0What&#8217;s\u00a0happening on that\u00a0producer\u00a0side? So, really, just as important.\u00a0 Sometimes it gets overshadowed by CPI, but PPI is certainly, certainly absolutely just as important as our retail sales data.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-3\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And, you know, retail sales data is going to be, you know, usually offers\u00a0sort\u00a0of a,\u00a0a fresh\u00a0look at consumer spending. You know, given how much consumers drive a\u00a0portion\u00a0of the US economy, well, what could this report tell us about growth heading into the second half of the year?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-3\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Boy, Jeff,\u00a0the consumer has hung in there for months, for years.\u00a0You know, there&#8217;s been all this talk about pullback and the consumer not doing well, yet we&#8217;ve seen consumer spending retail sales data actually very, very strong.\u00a0So especially this time of year,\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0back to school,\u00a0end\u00a0of the summer, how is the consumer feeling about the economy right now?\u00a0And that could really set the stage for what we see in a few months\u00a0come\u00a0Christmas season.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-4\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And in your opinion, out of those three, PPI, initial jobless claims and, or US retail sales, which of them have the greatest potential to move the market next week? Or end,\u00a0end\u00a0of this week too, I should say.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-4\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Think retail sales actually, because we&#8217;ve seen initial jobless claims right around that 200,000 number.\u00a0I know it was a bit lower a\u00a0couple\u00a0weeks\u00a0ago. PPI is going to be what\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0gonna\u00a0be. But when you really dive down to it, like you said earlier, the consumer\u00a0is responsible for\u00a0what?\u00a0About 68 to 70% of the economy.\u00a0So\u00a0we need to see if they are still spending and the health of the consumer.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-5\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Finally, last question, Scott. Beyond the economic calendar, what market theme should investors be\u00a0monitoring\u00a0over the next, you know, week or so? You know, inflation, earnings, Fed expectations, AI-related stocks, which we always seem to talk about. Global conflict,\u00a0which is\u00a0unfortunately always\u00a0have\u00a0to talk about, or, or something else?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-5\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I still think front and center, even though\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0getting numb at this point, right, is\u00a0really global\u00a0conflict, right? Because each day when we see something new here, we\u00a0could\u00a0see oil prices\u00a0moving considerably, which\u00a0then flows down, impacts inflation and all sorts of other things.\u00a0So global conflict\u00a0to\u00a0me is still front and center. Earnings season is wrapping up a bit. We still have retailers to go, but then what is the Fed\u00a0gonna\u00a0do and where are we with inflation? Is it still sticky? Are we still seeing potentially what was expected to have the Fed raise rates in September that ebbed a little bit, is that\u00a0gonna\u00a0stay like that?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-6\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scott, this has been great as always. For our listeners, you can find more from Scott at prospertrading.com or on our website, ibkr.com. Click on Education, go down to Podcasts, and you can see all the great podcasts that Scott and I have done. All right, Scott, until next time. Thank you.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-6\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thank you very much, sir. Have a great end\u00a0of\u00a0the summer here.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-7\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah, absolutely.\u00a0You\u00a0too.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-7\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thanks.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cooling labor data, persistent inflation concerns and the strength of the U.S. consumer are putting the economy under the microscope. Scott Bauer joins Jeff Praissman on this week&#8217;s IBKR Market Minute to discuss the latest jobs numbers, CPI and PPI, retail sales, Fed expectations and the market forces investors should be watching next.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":914,"featured_media":253411,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[3762,217,3221,18683,15089,4006,446,6988,17827,15769,570,2099,850,789,17708,2067,683,13038,3598,4231,600,19392,1546,18379,4109,11692,2167],"contributors-categories":[13576,16315],"class_list":["post-253405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-podcasts","category-podcasts","tag-consumer-spending","tag-cpi","tag-economic-data","tag-economic-slowdown","tag-employment-data","tag-fed-policy","tag-federal-reserve","tag-financial-markets","tag-global-conflict","tag-ibkr-podcasts","tag-inflation","tag-interactive-brokers","tag-interest-rates","tag-investing","tag-jeff-praissman","tag-jobs-report","tag-labor-market","tag-market-analysis","tag-market-outlook","tag-oil-prices","tag-ppi","tag-prosper-trading-academy","tag-retail-sales","tag-scott-bauer","tag-stock-market","tag-us-consumer","tag-us-economy","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers","contributors-categories-prosper-trading-academy"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is the Economy Starting to Crack? | IBKR Podcasts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/253405\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is the Economy Starting to Crack? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Cooling labor data, persistent inflation concerns and the strength of the U.S. consumer are putting the economy under the microscope. 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