{"id":253271,"date":"2026-08-11T13:10:14","date_gmt":"2026-08-11T17:10:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=253271"},"modified":"2026-08-11T15:54:39","modified_gmt":"2026-08-11T19:54:39","slug":"opinion-us-cpi-3-3-yes-undervalued-at-0-53-considering-the-expectation-is-3-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/opinion-us-cpi-3-3-yes-undervalued-at-0-53-considering-the-expectation-is-3-4\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion: US CPI 3.3% \u201cYes\u201d Undervalued at $0.53 Considering the Expectation is 3.4%: Aug. 11, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Tomorrow\u2019s July US Consumer Price Index\u2019s (CPI) 3.3% \u201cYes\u201d contract<\/a>, in my opinion, is undervalued at $0.53 as the distribution of economist estimates signals a higher chance for an upside surprise rather than a downside miss. Indeed, in the monthly Reuters poll of 53 forecasters, expectations range from a minimum of 3.3% to a maximum of 3.6% amidst a 3.4% median projection. Additionally, my expectation, at 3.44%, and it\u2019s unlikely that cost pressures cooled much from June\u2019s 3.5% against the backdrop of elevated fuel charges stemming from ongoing disagreements between the US and Iran. Turning to the over and under thresholds in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 3.1%, 3.2%, 3.4% and 3.5% are going for $0.97, $0.89, $0.18 and $0.06.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Interactive<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Core 2.4% \u201cYes\u201d Undervalued Too<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

For similar reasons, I believe the \u201cYes\u201d at 2.4% for the Core CPI is undervalued, too, at just $0.39<\/a>. The monthly Reuters poll of 50 forecasters places the minimum and maximum estimates at 2.4% and 2.8% amidst a median of 2.5%, signaling a heavier possibility of a stronger-than-anticipated figure rather than a weaker-than-projected one, according to the distribution of economists’ views. The prior result was 2.6% and my official expectation is at 2.53% because I don\u2019t see a significant amount of cooling to the tune of roughly 20 basis points in the indicator as likely either.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Interactive<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

German CPI Revision Expected Flat<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Germany\u2019s CPI, to be released tomorrow, is likely to land close to the preliminary print of 125.72 because revisions historically haven\u2019t deviated much from flash releases. For this reason, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets price the \u201cYeses\u201d with thresholds of 125 and 126 at $0.98 an $0.05<\/a> since it\u2019s a likely that the gauge will arrive between those two numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Interactive<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 11, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tomorrow\u2019s July US Consumer Price Index\u2019s 3.3% (CPI) \u201cYes\u201d contract, in my opinion, is undervalued at $0.53 as the distribution of economist estimates signals a higher chance for an upside surprise rather than a downside miss.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":206724,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[2180],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-253271","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-consumer-price-index","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOpinion: US CPI 3.3% \u201cYes\u201d Undervalued at $0.53 Considering the Expectation is 3.4%: Aug. 11, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/cpi-gold-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/253271","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=253271"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/253271\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":253364,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/253271\/revisions\/253364"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/206724"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=253271"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=253271"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=253271"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=253271"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}