{"id":253001,"date":"2026-08-10T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-10T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=253001"},"modified":"2026-08-11T04:59:22","modified_gmt":"2026-08-11T08:59:22","slug":"weekly-market-recap-week-of-august-10-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-week-of-august-10-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: Week of August 10, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 id=\"h-the-week-in-review\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>U.S. composite PMI rose from 51.9 to 54.5<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 23k<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-week-ahead\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>CPI<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PPI<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumer Sentiment<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While the Federal Reserve held rates steady at the July meeting, the 9\u20133 vote made it clear that the committee isn\u2019t fully aligned and hasn\u2019t closed the door on tightening later this year. Committee members Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike. Notably, these were the same three who pushed to remove the easing-bias language in April. While the July jobs report reduced the odds of a September hike, the pattern remains clear: There\u2019s a consistent hawkish bloc pressing for a tighter stance. Our base case is the Fed staying on hold, but in the case they do hike rates, short-term yields would likely reprice quickly and that shift could carry through to the broader bond market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The chart of the week lays out bond performance under three scenarios for the upcoming decision: no change, one hike and two hikes. Historically, a 25 bp increase in the federal funds rate has lined up with a 5.25 bp rise in the yield of the Bloomberg Agg. With duration around 5.9, even relatively small yield increases can result in meaningful capital losses, but total return remains a better lens than price alone. With the Agg yielding around 5%, income remains a meaningful cushion against price moves and can help total returns remain resilient even if rates drift higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Between now and September, policymakers will have plenty of data to guide the next decision. In addition to the July jobs report, the Fed will receive two CPI reports, a PCE report and one additional employment report, shaping market expectations going into the meeting. For fixed income investors, even as those expectations and long-term yields shift, income can help anchor performance and support attractive total returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1021\" height=\"401\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-10-101530.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-253015 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-10-101530.png 1021w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-10-101530-700x275.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-10-101530-300x118.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-10-101530-768x302.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1021px) 100vw, 1021px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1021px; aspect-ratio: 1021\/401;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chart of the Week: Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset<br>Management. Hypothetical illustration. Past performance is not a<br>guarantee of future results.<br>Thought of the week: Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset<br>Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted August 10, 2026 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., August 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of August 10, 2026 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s chart highlights a hawkish Fed bloc, with bond returns cushioned by income even if rates rise and yields shift higher.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":253015,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":["post-253001","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: Week of August 10, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This 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