{"id":252804,"date":"2026-08-06T13:22:49","date_gmt":"2026-08-06T17:22:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=252804"},"modified":"2026-08-06T14:05:12","modified_gmt":"2026-08-06T18:05:12","slug":"nonfarm-payrolls-yeses-at-50k-and-100k-going-for-0-74-0-27","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/nonfarm-payrolls-yeses-at-50k-and-100k-going-for-0-74-0-27\/","title":{"rendered":"Nonfarm Payrolls \u201cYeses\u201d at 50k and 100k Going For $0.74, $0.27: Aug. 6, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Tomorrow\u2019s nonfarm payrolls report is expected to reflect an acceleration after three consecutive months of slower hiring. The Interactive Brokers Prediction Market anticipates a number around 75k, as the \u201cYes\u201d contracts with thresholds of 50k and 100k are priced at $0.74 and $0.27, respectively. This indicator is volatile and carries an elevated deviation rate, however, and could surprise, which is why the associated contracts signal a wide range of potential outcomes. Indeed, over and under, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 150k, 90k, 30k and 10k are priced at $0.16, $0.33, $0.84 and $0.90. The monthly Reuters poll of 68 forecasters signals a similar backdrop, as the median stands at 80k amidst minimum and maximum projections of 10k and 140k. I\u2019m well below consensus at 40k, because I believe labor supply constraints will continue to weigh on the result for the rest of the year, and I generally favor the \u201cNos.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Unemployment Expected Steady at 4.2%<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The US unemployment rate is expected to remain steady as slower job growth coincides with weaker participation that serves to neutralize the indicator. Of 67 forecasters in the monthly Reuters poll, the median estimate is for an unchanged 4.2% amidst minimum and maximum projection of 4.1% and 4.3%. The Interactive Brokers Prediction Market is in close alignment, meanwhile, as participants price the \u201cYeses\u201d at 4%, 4.2% and 4.4% at $0.92, $0.49 and $0.04.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Canada Unemployment \u201cNo\u201d at 6.5%<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Canadian Jobs Report is also scheduled for tomorrow and in my view participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market are underestimating the potential for a slight decline. The consensus estimate expects a steady unemployment number of 6.5%, but a modest decrease to 6.4% is possible because this indicator carries an elevated deviation rate and can surprise significantly in either direction. Despite the 6.4% level not being reached since July 2024, the \u201cNo\u201d at that threshold is going for just $0.05. This price is undervalued, in my opinion, because a meager drop in the gauge to 6.4% or below would return $1.00 back to investors per contract; making the instrument simply too cheap. Furthermore, of the 15 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll, the minimum projection is 6.4%, indicating that other economists, like I, see a path to this lighter figure. Over, meanwhile, the \u201cNos\u201d at 6.6% and 6.8% are at $0.93 and $0.96.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 6, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tomorrow\u2019s nonfarm payrolls report is expected to reflect an acceleration after three consecutive months of slower hiring. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":184809,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[12537,686],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-252804","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-layoffs","tag-unemployment","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNonfarm Payrolls \u201cYeses\u201d at 50k and 100k Going For 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/bogy-au-employ-1920.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/252804","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=252804"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/252804\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":252860,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/252804\/revisions\/252860"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/184809"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=252804"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=252804"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=252804"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=252804"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}