{"id":252481,"date":"2026-08-04T12:56:42","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T16:56:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=252481"},"modified":"2026-08-04T15:56:45","modified_gmt":"2026-08-04T19:56:45","slug":"after-3-straight-weeks-under-210k-consider-that-no-contract-at-0-66-for-this-thursday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/after-3-straight-weeks-under-210k-consider-that-no-contract-at-0-66-for-this-thursday\/","title":{"rendered":"After 3 Straight Weeks Under 210K, Consider the \u201cNo\u201d Contract at $0.66 for This Thursday: Aug. 4, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Initial unemployment claims have been below 210k for three consecutive weeks as labor conditions continue to show impressive stability. There\u2019s an expectation that this Thursday\u2019s headline will market the fourth straight week, as none of the 33 forecasters in the weekly Reuters poll envision a number ahead of that threshold. Indeed, the median estimate stands at 202k amidst minimum and maximum projections of 192k and 210k. Meanwhile, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market<\/a> prices the 210k \u201cNo\u201d at what I consider to be an undervalued $0.66, since it should cost $0.83, in my opinion. The contract would deliver $1.00 back to investors on any result beneath 211k. Under, the \u201cNos\u201d at 200k and 190k are going for $0.32 and $0.10.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 4, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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