{"id":252300,"date":"2026-08-03T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-03T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=252300"},"modified":"2026-08-04T06:17:27","modified_gmt":"2026-08-04T10:17:27","slug":"weekly-market-recap-week-of-august-3-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-week-of-august-3-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap Week of August 3, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 id=\"h-the-week-in-review\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>FOMC kept rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumer confidence fell to 90.8 in July<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-week-ahead\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>July jobs report<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>JOLTS job openings<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Mfg. and services PMIs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Last week\u2019s 2Q26 GDP report showed annualized real growth of 1.5% in 2Q26, down from 1Q26\u2019s pace of 2.1%. While consumer spending stayed elevated and business fixed investment remained strong amid the AI capex buildout, a few key areas led to the weaker print. In particular, a 11.5% q\/q jump in imports, 89.4 million barrels of oil released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (which is counted as reduced government spending) and a $50.8bn annualized fall in private inventories all cut reported growth. However, all these factors should be temporary. The surge in imports could reflect an attempt by businesses to import goods after the IEEPA tariffs were declared illegal and before they could be fully replaced. The U.S. has reduced oil stockpiles sharply to cushion the impact of the Iran war on consumers but with the SPR now at its lowest level since 1983, this drawdown will have to end soon. Additionally, private sector inventories can\u2019t keep falling this fast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2Q26 marked the fifth consecutive quarter of declining private inventories. However, as shown in this week\u2019s chart, these stockpiles are now at very lean levels. Indeed, the inventory\/sales ratio (measured as the number of days it would take to clear the shelves) has now fallen to 67.9 days, lower than at the trough of each of the last three recessions. We don\u2019t see a recession around the corner and, consequently, expect inventory growth to return to its average pace over the last 10 years of $41.9bn. If that had occurred in the second quarter, economic growth would have been 3.06% \u2013 twice the actual reported rate. This, along with the other distortions, suggests the economy is stronger than implied by headline GDP growth and should continue to expand steadily in the quarters ahead, providing further support to risk assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1005\" height=\"397\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-03-104319.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-252301 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-03-104319.png 1005w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-03-104319-700x277.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-03-104319-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/08\/Screenshot-2026-08-03-104319-768x303.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1005px) 100vw, 1005px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1005px; aspect-ratio: 1005\/397;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chart of the Week: Source: BEA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.<br>Thought of the week: Source: BEA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted August 3, 2026 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., August 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of August 3, 2026 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s chart highlights lean inventories at 67.9 days, masking underlying economic strength and supporting steady growth ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":252301,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":["post-252300","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap Week of August 3, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This 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