{"id":252223,"date":"2026-07-31T12:52:59","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T16:52:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=252223"},"modified":"2026-07-31T13:44:10","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T17:44:10","slug":"fed-hike-at-sept-meeting-going-for-0-56","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/fed-hike-at-sept-meeting-going-for-0-56\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Hike at Sept. Meeting Going For $0.56: July 31, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The severe selling pressure hitting both Treasury bonds and the US dollar following last Wednesday\u2019s Fed pause may worsen in future weeks considering that the probability for a rate hike in September is at just 56%. Chair Kevin Warsh has communicated an unwavering commitment to quell price pressures but hasn\u2019t shifted policy in the two opportunities he\u2019s had so far. His messaging has certainly tightened financial conditions; however, the fixed-income complex is now confused when contemplating if the central bank has the resolve necessary to attempt the difficult and risky task of containing cost forces without slowing the economy. Indeed, economists thought the chief was the most hawkish of the voting members in Warsh\u2019s early days, only to see that he’s more towards the middle as at least three officials, dissenters Kashkari, Logan, Hammack, are out hawking him. I believe the recent credibility hit is temporary and will be reversed at the next decision and because of that, I think the \u201cYes\u201d tied to a 25-basis point increase is potentially undervalued and should be closer to $0.70.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 31, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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