{"id":252023,"date":"2026-07-30T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=252023"},"modified":"2026-07-30T12:06:10","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T16:06:10","slug":"why-gold-is-falling-even-as-conflict-in-the-middle-east-escalates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/why-gold-is-falling-even-as-conflict-in-the-middle-east-escalates\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Gold Is Falling Even as Conflict in the Middle East Escalates"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Brent crude crossed above $100 a barrel last week, all due to a 20-mile-wide stretch of water some 6,500 miles away from the U.S.
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz\u2014the Persian Gulf bottleneck that carried roughly a fifth of the world\u2019s seaborne oil before the fighting started\u2014has fallen to virtually zero. Before the war, some 80 vessels made the transit on a good day. The recent\u00a0high-water mark is 25.<\/a>
Now Iran is working a second front, leaning on its Houthi allies in Yemen to threaten the Bab el-Mandeb, the southern gate to the Red Sea. It\u2019s about as narrow as Hormuz. With Saudi Arabia pushing more barrels through its East-West pipeline to the port of Yanbu, an attack there would put something like\u00a04.5 million barrels a day at risk.<\/a>\u00a0And unlike Hormuz, it would foul container traffic bound for Suez, sending Europe-Asia freight the long way around the Cape of Good Hope.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its\u00a0lowest level since 1983.<\/a>\u00a0President Trump authorized releasing up to 172 million barrels back in May to hold prices down. It worked, for a while, but traders are now talking about\u00a0\u201ctank bottoms,\u201d<\/a>\u00a0the point at which pulling more oil out gets physically difficult.
\"U.S.
Why Gold Hasn\u2019t Rallied on the War<\/strong>
Gold is supposed to be the asset you own when wars break out and tankers stop moving, so I get why some investors have been frustrated in recent months. Instead of soaring, the yellow metal has been stuck near $4,000 an ounce, down roughly a fifth since the strikes on Iran began in late February, and well off its January record near $5,600.
The reason for this isn\u2019t a mystery. Oil prices have increased, pushing up inflation and interest rate expectations. Gold prices, as a result, have been pressured.
You can watch it in the bond market. The U.S. 10-year yield touched 4.71% last week, its highest level since January 2025. German bunds hit levels not seen since 2011. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England both meet this week, and both are expected to hold rates steady while flagging the risk of hikes down the road.
\"Gold
Longtime readers know I\u2019ve argued for years that the single most important variable for the gold price is the real interest rate. When real rates climb, the metal has tended to struggle because, unlike fixed income, it doesn\u2019t bear interest.
The foreign share of U.S. Treasury holdings has also fallen from about 56% in 2008 to\u00a030% at the end of 2025.<\/a>\u00a0The marginal buyer of government debt is now a price-sensitive American, and those buyers demand more compensation in higher yields. I don\u2019t believe this will reverse significantly when the shooting stops.
China Is Buying the Weakness<\/strong>
The People\u2019s Bank of China bought 15 tonnes of gold in June\u2014its largest single-month purchase since October 2023\u2014bringing official holdings to 2,346 tonnes. That represents 20 consecutive months of accumulation, the\u00a0longest streak on record,<\/a>\u00a0according to the World Gold Council (WGC).
Focus not just on\u00a0what<\/em>\u00a0China is doing, but how. Its rate of accumulation has accelerated as the price of gold has fallen. The country added 40 tonnes in the first half, during which gold lost close to 30% of its value from its all-time high in late January. Analysts at New York-based hedge fund Zweig-DiMenna calculate roughly\u00a0$5.7 billion of Chinese purchases in H1,<\/a>\u00a0most of it in the second quarter, against about $2 billion in all of 2025, when gold was rallying hard.
I believe China could be making a bet for the ages, if John Paulson\u2019s forecast turns out to be accurate. The legendary hedge fund manager, who made billions shorting the subprime mortgage market in 2007, told CNBC last week that he believes we\u2019re\u00a0still in the early innings of a long-term gold rally.<\/a>
\u201cAs people lose faith in paper currencies, gold as an alternative will continue to grow,\u201d Paulson said, adding that the metal \u201cis becoming the most apt reserve currency in the world, replacing fiat currency.\u201d
Miners Are Printing Cash at $4,000 Gold<\/strong>
I want to highlight another comment Paulson made during his interview. Investors, he said, could stand to benefit even more by maintaining exposure to gold miners on top of the metal. I agree, which is why I\u2019ve long recommended a 10% weighting in gold, split evenly between physical bullion and gold mining stocks.
Gold has averaged roughly $4,700 an ounce so far in 2026 against\u00a0all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of below $2,000.<\/a>\u00a0Even at $4,000, that\u2019s an extraordinary margin, and it\u2019s showing up as free cash flow, net cash balance sheets and buybacks. Scotiabank expects\u00a0meaningful share repurchases<\/a>\u00a0from Newmont, Barrick, Agnico Eagle and Kinross. RBC\u2019s Josh Wolfson describes producers as operating from a position of strength.
As projected, Newmont reported record free cash flow in the second quarter, generating $2.2 billion after producing some 1.3 million ounces. The Denver-based company also announced a $0.26-per-share dividend. Newmont and Barrick, which is scheduled to report next month, are expected to post combined second-quarter profits of around $3.5 billion, which would be massive.
The World Remains Underweight<\/strong>
By historical standards, gold investment remains grossly underweight. As a percent of portfolios, gold accounts for low-single-digit exposure. With metal prices off 30% from their record high, now might be time to consider accumulating.
Keeping your exposure to between 5% and 10% and rebalancing regularly helps with discipline. No need to have an opinion on the Strait of Hormuz.
China\u2019s central bank isn\u2019t trying to time the market, and I don\u2019t think you should either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted 2026 – Why Gold Is Falling Even as Conflict in the Middle East Escalates<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

 All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this\/these website(s) and is not responsible for its\/their content.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (06\/30\/2026): Newmont Corp., Barrick Mining Corp., Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Now Iran is working a second front, leaning on its Houthi allies in Yemen to threaten the Bab el-Mandeb, the southern gate to the Red Sea. It\u2019s about as narrow as Hormuz. With Saudi Arabia pushing more barrels through its East-West pipeline to the port of Yanbu, an attack there would put something like 4.5 million barrels a day at risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":238459,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[21,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13633],"class_list":["post-252023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-commodities","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-us-global-investors"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy Gold Is Falling Even as Conflict in the Middle East Escalates<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Now Iran is working a second front, leaning on its Houthi allies in Yemen to threaten the Bab el-Mandeb, the southern gate to the Red Sea. 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