{"id":251966,"date":"2026-07-29T15:56:40","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T19:56:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=251966"},"modified":"2026-07-29T16:28:33","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T20:28:33","slug":"pce-3-6-yes-is-potentially-undervalued-at-just-0-31-considering-that-the-median-estimate-is-3-7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/pce-3-6-yes-is-potentially-undervalued-at-just-0-31-considering-that-the-median-estimate-is-3-7\/","title":{"rendered":"PCE 3.6% \u201cYes\u201d Is Potentially Undervalued at Just $0.31 Considering That the Median Estimate is 3.7%: July 29, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) is generally well telegraphed by Wall Street as inputs from the Consumer and Producer gauges are available earlier in the month. June\u2019s headline figure is expected to come in at 3.7% tomorrow morning, but the \u201cYes\u201d at 3.6%<\/a> in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market is going for what I consider to be an undervalued $0.31, since it should cost north of $0.50 in my opinion. An in-line result of 3.7% or higher would deliver $1.00 back to investors, which would be over triple the original $0.31 paid. Meanwhile, the monthly Reuters poll of 37 forecasters sports minimum and maximum projections of 3.5% and 3.9%.  Additionally, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 3.8% and 4% are at $0.11 and $0.09.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Interactive<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Initial Claims Have Been Volatile<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Initial unemployment claims dropped to a 57-year low of 187k last week and there\u2019s at least one forecaster in the weekly Reuters poll that sees a number below that tomorrow morning. Indeed, the minimum estimate in the survey is at 185k, amidst a median and maximum projection of 200k and 215k. Against this backdrop, the \u201cYeses\u201d<\/a> at 190k, 200k and 210k are going for $0.91, $0.65 and $0.47 within the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market. This indicator has been incredibly volatile lately, rising to as high as 230k in early June, before plunging south of 190k recently. In my view, because the last two prints have come in under 210k and there\u2019s a strong expectation of that to occur again, the \u201cNo\u201d at $0.53 is undervalued at that threshold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Interactive<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

WEI Has Also Been All Over the Place<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Dallas Fed\u2019s Weekly Economic Index (WEI) has been all over the place lately, covering a wide range spanning from 2.55% to 3.22% in the past eight weeks while the last four have delivered results of 2.93%, 2.6%, 3.12% and 2.55%. For tomorrow afternoon\u2019s report, meanwhile, the \u201cYeses\u201d<\/a> at 2.6% and 3.2% are going for $0.67 and $0.22, reflecting the recent readings of the indicator. Furthermore, I think the former is slightly undervalued since we\u2019ve averaged around 2.8% on a year-to-date basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Interactive<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Eurozone GDP Expected to Recover<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The eurozone’s second-quarter gross domestic product report is poised to recover in tomorrow\u2019s update from the prior period\u2019s -0.2% quarter-over-quarter rate. Most of the 39 forecasters in the quarterly Reuters poll expect a positive number, as the survey carries a median of 0.2% amidst minimum and maximum values of 0% and 0.7%. The Interactive Brokers Prediction Market agrees on a positive number, as the \u201cYes\u201d at 0.2%<\/a> is going for $0.39, while the \u201cYeses\u201d at -0.2% and 0.6% are costing $0.98 and $0.07.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Interactive<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the afternoon of July 29, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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