{"id":251725,"date":"2026-07-28T13:07:04","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T17:07:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=251725"},"modified":"2026-07-28T13:26:39","modified_gmt":"2026-07-28T17:26:39","slug":"theres-a-75-chance-of-at-least-1-dissenter-tomorrow-while-exactly-1-or-2-cost-0-29-and-0-30","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/theres-a-75-chance-of-at-least-1-dissenter-tomorrow-while-exactly-1-or-2-cost-0-29-and-0-30\/","title":{"rendered":"There\u2019s a 75% Chance of At Least 1 Dissenter Tomorrow, While Exactly 1, or 2 Cost $0.29 and $0.30: July 28, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Participants in the Interactive Brokers prediction market assign around a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/853715009\/product-details\/contracts?exchange=KALSHI\">75% chance<\/a> of at least one voting member formally disagreeing with tomorrow\u2019s Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The verdict is likely to be a hold and not a hike, as an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/853722976\/product-details\/contracts?exchange=KALSHI\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">81% probability<\/a> of no change signals a high degree of confidence in a steady central bank this month. Meanwhile, a few officials have wanted to get in front of elevated inflationary pressures by tightening policy sooner rather than later and for that reason, there are 29%, 30% and 13% approximate likelihoods of exactly one, two, or three dissenters at this Wednesday\u2019s main event. Furthermore, the prices for 0 and four are going for $0.25 and $0.07, indicating a wide range of potential outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"413\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-94-1100x413.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-251735 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-94-1100x413.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-94-700x263.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-94-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-94-768x288.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-94-1536x576.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-94.png 1711w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/413;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>July 28, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Participants in the Interactive Brokers prediction market assign around a 75% chance of at least one voting member formally disagreeing with tomorrow\u2019s Federal Reserve interest rate decision. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":182332,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-251725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 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