{"id":251576,"date":"2026-07-27T13:06:27","date_gmt":"2026-07-27T17:06:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=251576"},"modified":"2026-07-27T17:24:03","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T21:24:03","slug":"hike-at-this-weeks-fomc-priced-at-0-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/hike-at-this-weeks-fomc-priced-at-0-19\/","title":{"rendered":"Hike at This Week\u2019s FOMC Priced at $0.19: July 27, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has communicated a hawkish view on inflation since being appointed to the helm of the central bank, but Interactive Brokers Prediction Market participants don\u2019t think he\u2019ll hike this week in an effort to quell price pressures. Odds of a pause were additionally helped in the past few days by lower oil prices stemming from US and Iran pausing hostilities for three consecutive nights as they attempt to negotiate a solution to the conflict. Meanwhile, the disinflation trend is still in tact even as fuel charges have rebounded from the middle of the month. May\u2019s Consumer Price Index peak of 4.2% was followed by June\u2019s 3.5%, and my estimate of July is 3.3%, pointing to a gauge that will once again carry a 2-handle by year-end if crude can remain below $70 per barrel, where it was in the beginning of July. Heading into Wednesday’s decision, a hold contract costs $0.80 <\/a>while a 25-basis point increase is going for $0.19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 27, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has communicated a hawkish view on inflation since being appointed to the helm of the central bank, but Interactive Brokers Prediction Market participants don\u2019t think he\u2019ll hike this week in an effort to quell price 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