{"id":251238,"date":"2026-07-23T13:13:28","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T17:13:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=251238"},"modified":"2026-07-23T16:53:16","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T20:53:16","slug":"assessing-the-600k-yes-at-0-55-on-new-home-sales-which-could-be-due-for-a-bounce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/assessing-the-600k-yes-at-0-55-on-new-home-sales-which-could-be-due-for-a-bounce\/","title":{"rendered":"Assessing the 600K \u201cYes\u201d at $0.55 on New Home Sales, Which Could Be Due For a Bounce: July 23, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The 600k bar on US New Home Sales isn\u2019t lofty, as it\u2019s been exceeded in all but two months of 2026, when January and May came in at 580k and 587k, near four-year lows. For this reason, I believe the $0.55 \u201cYes\u201d at 600k<\/a> contract may be an undervalued opportunity, as the indicator has typically bounced above the level after declining beneath it in a prior period. Indeed, since the pandemic, there\u2019s only been one instance of two consecutive results below 600k occurring in the summer of 2022, when the Fed was raising rates aggressively. Furthermore, the consensus projects a June increase, too, as the 37 forecasters within the monthly Reuters poll carry a median of 610k against the backdrop of minimum and maximum entries of 581k and 630k. Over and under, meanwhile, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 675k 650k, 625k, 575k and 550k are going for $0.19, $0.28, $0.39, $0.84 and $0.92 in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market as it relates to tomorrow\u2019s 10:00 am release.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Shallower Decline in Canada New Homes Expected<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Interactive Brokers Prediction Market participants expect Canada\u2019s New Housing Price Index to decline a shallower 0.2% month over month after May\u2019s performance came in at -0.3%. Indeed, the \u201cYes\u201d at -0.2% is going for $0.38, while the \u201cYeses\u201d at -0.5% and 0.4%<\/a> are priced at $0.79 and $0.68.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 23, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/home-sale-sign-featured-img-ForecastTrader.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/251238","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=251238"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/251238\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":251310,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/251238\/revisions\/251310"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/220585"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=251238"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=251238"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=251238"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=251238"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}