{"id":251193,"date":"2026-07-23T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=251193"},"modified":"2026-07-23T13:20:13","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T17:20:13","slug":"the-midterm-year-rally-in-gold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/the-midterm-year-rally-in-gold\/","title":{"rendered":"The Midterm-Year Rally in Gold"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Dear Investor,<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

You may be familiar with the four-year cycle, also known as the election cycle, which is characterized by the presidential elections that take place every four years.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Did you know that the election cycle also exists for other instruments such as gold?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Things are getting interesting right now. The current year, 2026, is a midterm election year. And gold performs very well in midterm election years: for gold, the midterm election year is the best year in the four-year cycle!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The four-year cycle in gold<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s look at the results of a gold investment in each year of the four-year cycle. The table shows the average performance of gold in election years, post-election years, midterm election years, and post-election years, in US dollar terms, starting in 1968.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Four-year cycle: Gold performance since 1968<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Election year<\/strong><\/td>Post-election year<\/strong><\/td>Midterm election year<\/strong><\/td>Post-election year<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
3,94%<\/td>5,28%<\/td>11,09%<\/td>9,68%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

You can clearly see that the years with midterm elections \u2013 such as 2026 \u2013 performed best with 11.09%. But the years following the general election \u2013 such as the upcoming 2027 \u2013 also fared well with 9.68%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The midterm election year in detail<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

But what does a midterm election year look like in detail? After all, we\u2019re already halfway through the year. Take a look at the chart. It shows you the seasonal trend of gold only in years that are midterm election years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold, typical course of the midterm election years, 1968 to 2026<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n
\"Chart
Things start looking up in July. Source: Seasonax<\/a> | View pattern<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As you can see, in midterm election years, gold prices typically rise sharply starting in July. This increase, characteristic of midterm election years, lasts until February of the following year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The situation for gold is therefore improving cyclically from now on. The weakness of the past few months could now be replaced by an upward movement!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Use the filter function!<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As you can see, Seasonax<\/em> offers you much more than just annual seasonality. Use Seasonax<\/em> \u2018s filter function if you want to see how an instrument performs over a four-year cycle or any other cycle. You\u2019ll find the filter switch in the upper right corner of each seasonal chart.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Filter switch<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
The filter is easily accessible above every seasonal chart. Source: Seasonax<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

After clicking, the redesigned filter menu opens. With it, you can assess the cyclical market situation and apply all kinds of filters in just a few clicks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Filter function on Seasonax<\/em> , with selected election cycle<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n
\"Seasonax
One click to the election cycle. Source: Seasonax<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This allows you to instantly see the typical price movements of specific years, such as midterm election years, for all instruments, in addition to the annual seasonality, with just a few clicks. Alternatively, you can filter for individual years that exhibit particular characteristics. This way, you can further improve your trading results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted July 21, 2026 – The Midterm-Year Rally in Gold<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

You may be familiar with the four-year cycle, also known as the election cycle, which is characterized by the presidential elections that take place every four years.<\/p>\n

Did you know that the election cycle also exists for other instruments such as gold?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":577,"featured_media":224120,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[21,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13716],"class_list":["post-251193","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-commodities","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-seasonax"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Midterm-Year Rally in Gold | Traders' Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"You may be familiar with the four-year cycle, also known as the election cycle, which is 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