{"id":250561,"date":"2026-07-20T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-20T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=250561"},"modified":"2026-07-21T04:37:45","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T08:37:45","slug":"weekly-market-recap-week-of-july-20-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-week-of-july-20-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: Week of July 20, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 id=\"h-the-week-in-review\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Headline CPI cooled sharply, rising 3.5 y\/y<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Core CPI ticked lower to 2.6% y\/y<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Core retail sales declined 0.2% m\/m<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-week-ahead\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>New home sales<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Building permits<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Flash global PMIs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Last week kicked off the 2Q26 earnings season, and two shortages appear to have driven much of the growth: disrupted Middle East oil supply and scarce AI hardware. Analysts expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to rise 23% y\/y, which, if realized, would mark a second straight quarter of 20%+ growth \u2014 a feat seen only once in the past two decades, in 2018, when earnings had not declined the year before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Looking across sectors, Energy EPS is expected to grow fastest, at around 120% y\/y, buoyed by higher oil prices after the war disrupted Middle East supply. However, IT is yet again doing most of the heavy lifting: EPS is expected to rise 61%, driving two-thirds of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth. Within IT, though, the profit pool is shifting. As this week\u2019s chart shows, earlier in the AI cycle, hyperscalers drove more growth, whereas in 2Q, semiconductors are expected to generate nearly half of S&amp;P 500 earnings growth. As these hyperscalers race for AI dominance, demand for chips and memory has outpaced supply, allowing suppliers to charge more and expand margins. Put simply, chip buyers are funding an earnings boom for chip sellers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Looking ahead, the pace of earnings growth is likely near its peak. Energy\u2019s outsized earnings growth should prove short-lived as oil prices ease and supply normalizes. The AI imbalance may take longer to resolve, but it cannot persist indefinitely. With hyperscaler margins already contracting, either AI monetization catches up with spending or AI capex growth eventually slows, cooling semiconductor earnings growth as well. Therefore, the earnings outlook from here rests on how quickly hyperscalers can show the receipts from their AI spending.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s chart highlights S&amp;P 500 earnings driven by energy and AI chip shortages, with semiconductors fueling nearly half of 2Q26 growth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":250562,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":["post-250561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: Week of July 20, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This 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