{"id":250261,"date":"2026-07-15T13:49:59","date_gmt":"2026-07-15T17:49:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=250261"},"modified":"2026-07-15T13:50:00","modified_gmt":"2026-07-15T17:50:00","slug":"crude-awakening-oils-back-now-what","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/crude-awakening-oils-back-now-what\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude Awakening: Oil&#8217;s Back, Now What?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Markets are balancing stronger inflation data against rising energy prices as investors look ahead to key retail sales reports and another wave of Big Tech earnings. Scott Bauer joins the IBKR Podcast to break down the latest Federal Reserve outlook, AI spending, CapEx trends and the market catalysts that could shape the week ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Crude Awakening: Oil's Back, Now What?\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=955gw-1b11d09-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-406\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 406<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hi, everyone.\u00a0This is Jeff Praissman with Interactive Brokers Podcast, and it&#8217;s my pleasure to welcome back to the IBKR Podcast Studio, Scott Bauer from Prosper Trading Academy.\u00a0Hey, Scott. How are you?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jeff, I am great. Yourself?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-0\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;m\u00a0good,\u00a0I&#8217;m\u00a0good. I always love having you come in on these Wednesdays, where we do a little quick rundown of the week before and the week ahead.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah,&nbsp;let&#8217;s&nbsp;kick it off, Scott. So last week, what was the biggest market story? And why did investors pay attention to it?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-0\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It was the Fed. It was the anticipation leading up to earnings\u00a0and also\u00a0the big IPO of SK&#8230; I always mispronounce it. SK Hynix,\u00a0I think it\u00a0is.\u00a0So\u00a0I think the market\u00a0really embraced that after the SpaceX IPO. But\u00a0we&#8217;re\u00a0seeing the same results, and maybe the market is now getting a little bit more cautious about IPOs and\u00a0maybe not\u00a0believing all the hype.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But I think that, and really the Fed, and then the follow-up this week with the Fed and where interest rates may go.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-1\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Got it. Got it. And it seems like every time\u00a0you&#8217;re in\u00a0here,\u00a0we&#8217;re\u00a0talking about oil prices, whether\u00a0they&#8217;re\u00a0rising or falling, and they were rising. So how did the rising oil prices and global events affect the market last week?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-1\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It&#8217;s\u00a0so interesting because when you look at the reports this week, the inflation reports, and we see those numbers being\u00a0really good, that&#8217;s\u00a0because that included oil prices, gas prices down from a month, six weeks ago.\u00a0So that was really good.\u00a0But now that oil prices are\u00a0back\u00a0up again and significantly higher, my concern is that&#8217;s\u00a0gonna\u00a0have some\u00a0really negative\u00a0fallout in the next reports we get.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So&nbsp;this constant back and forth,&nbsp;back&nbsp;and forth, I think is&nbsp;very difficult&nbsp;for the markets to really parse out.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-2\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah,\u00a0&#8217;cause\u00a0those reports are lagging, right? Time\u00a0lagging. And\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0interesting\u00a0&#8217;cause\u00a0my&#8230; You\u00a0kind of put\u00a0me in a tough spot here, Scott,\u00a0&#8217;cause\u00a0my next question&#8217;s based on last week&#8217;s economic reports, is the US economy showing signs of\u00a0trends are\u00a0slowing down? So based on reports,\u00a0it&#8217;s showing\u00a0signs of strength.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, in reality, with the events unfolding last week, it may be slowing down a little bit.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-2\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah, and Jeff,\u00a0I think we\u00a0spoke about this last time too, about these reports that come out. Like you said,\u00a0they&#8217;re\u00a0not real time, right?\u00a0They&#8217;re\u00a0lagging data.\u00a0So\u00a0what we just saw here, great, inflation numbers are down, but that is because those gas prices were down.\u00a0So\u00a0oil has rallied, what are we seeing, 10% plus since the last week or two.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So&nbsp;I think that&#8217;s&nbsp;gonna&nbsp;be a tough one for inflation on the next reports that we get.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-3\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And\u00a0let&#8217;s\u00a0look ahead\u00a0now, because\u00a0there&#8217;s\u00a0always reports coming out. So which economic reports should investors be watching most closely this week coming up, like the next five days or so?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-3\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sure.\u00a0So\u00a0we had some inflation reports.\u00a0We&#8217;re\u00a0gonna\u00a0get some manufacturing reports.\u00a0But I think we have to focus also on the consumer and retail sales.\u00a0Boy,\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0over and over and over\u00a0we talk about how the consumer has been so resilient. Retail sales have really\u00a0held\u00a0up.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And I have a feeling that we&#8217;re going to see some really good, robust numbers because of what we just talked about, because of those gas prices being so much lower, and that really may be factoring into consumers feeling, &#8220;Oh, maybe I have a little extra money here to spend.&#8221;&nbsp;So&nbsp;we&nbsp;gotta&nbsp;focus on that, and for me, if that number is really, really a solid, positive number, I think&nbsp;we&#8217;re&nbsp;gonna&nbsp;have to take that with a grain of salt.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-4\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gotcha. So again, that retail sales report,\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0still maybe not the full picture of the health of consumer given\u00a0maybe the\u00a0health of the consumer a while ago, a few weeks ago, but not necessarily now.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-4\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Exactly.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-5\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And then of\u00a0course too, we got earnings, right?\u00a0So\u00a0what are the big earning events next week and which ones have\u00a0maybe the\u00a0greatest potential to move the markets?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-5\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So\u00a0far\u00a0the banks were really, really good. Now we look\u00a0ahead\u00a0and\u00a0we&#8217;ve\u00a0got some of the big ones coming out, and the big tech stocks, the semis, those are really\u00a0gonna\u00a0be the key. Can they keep\u00a0up margins?\u00a0What&#8217;s\u00a0the\u00a0CapEx\u00a0going to be like, right? The markets were\u00a0really fearful\u00a0of the amount of\u00a0CapEx\u00a0that some of these companies were spending, and then\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0almost like\u00a0they wrote it off, and it was fine.\u00a0So\u00a0I think the big concern\u00a0is going to be, is AI really going to pay off with the amount of\u00a0CapEx\u00a0that these companies are really spending on?\u00a0So\u00a0when we see the likes of Google and Amazon and Meta and Microsoft and all of those coming up, that&#8217;s really\u00a0gonna\u00a0be the focus.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-6\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scott, this has been great as always. For our listeners, you can find more from Scott at Prosper Trading Academy, and look for him to stop by our studio, usually every other Wednesday. And again, always a pleasure, Scott.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-6\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jeff, thanks so much.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets are balancing stronger inflation data against rising energy prices as investors look ahead to key retail sales reports and another wave of Big Tech earnings. Scott Bauer joins the IBKR Podcast to break down the latest Federal Reserve outlook, AI spending, CapEx trends, and the market catalysts that could shape the week ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":914,"featured_media":250262,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[14545,912,3038,9807,217,2397,3221,77,446,19480,570,2099,850,789,18761,13038,3598,2298,4231,19392,1546,18379,4109,11690,4838],"contributors-categories":[13576,16315],"class_list":["post-250261","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-podcasts","category-podcasts","tag-ai-stocks","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-big-tech","tag-capex","tag-cpi","tag-earnings-season","tag-economic-data","tag-fed","tag-federal-reserve","tag-ibkr-podcast","tag-inflation","tag-interactive-brokers","tag-interest-rates","tag-investing","tag-investing-podcast","tag-market-analysis","tag-market-outlook","tag-market-recap","tag-oil-prices","tag-prosper-trading-academy","tag-retail-sales","tag-scott-bauer","tag-stock-market","tag-stock-market-news","tag-wall-street","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers","contributors-categories-prosper-trading-academy"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Crude Awakening: Oil&#8217;s Back, Now What? | IBKR Podcasts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/250261\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Crude Awakening: Oil&#039;s Back, Now What? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Markets are balancing stronger inflation data against rising energy prices as investors look ahead to key retail sales reports and another wave of Big Tech earnings. 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