{"id":250149,"date":"2026-07-14T13:05:46","date_gmt":"2026-07-14T17:05:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=250149"},"modified":"2026-07-14T13:34:46","modified_gmt":"2026-07-14T17:34:46","slug":"the-0-55-ppi-no-at-6-4-for-tomorrow-is-undervalued","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/the-0-55-ppi-no-at-6-4-for-tomorrow-is-undervalued\/","title":{"rendered":"The $0.55 PPI \u201cNo\u201d at 6.4% For Tomorrow Is Undervalued: July 14, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I\u2019m almost certain that plunging fuel costs last month drove a deceleration in May\u2019s 6.5% Producer Price Index (PPI), especially after this morning\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed from 4.2% to 3.5% during the same period. The consensus agrees as the 22 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll stand at a median estimate of 6.2% amidst minimum and maximum entries of 5.6% and 6.8%. Meanwhile, the PPI is much more sensitive to energy than the CPI and I anticipate that the result will post a miss at 5.9%. Against this backdrop, I find the \u201cNos\u201d at 6.4% and 6.6% significantly undervalued at $0.55 and $0.65, since I think the bar is far too elevated heading into this print. Under, the \u201cNos\u201d at 6.2%, 6% and 5.8% are going for $0.51, $0.20 and $0.11.  <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Canada To Hold Rates at 2.25%<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Bank of Canada is largely expected to hold rates with an elevated degree of confidence as we await tomorrow\u2019s decision. The 98% likelihood is supported by a monetary policy authority that doesn\u2019t want to risk job losses and\/or economic slowdown by adopting a patient approach on inflationary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 14, 2026.<\/a><\/em>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I\u2019m almost certain that plunging fuel costs last month drove a deceleration in May\u2019s 6.5% Producer Price Index (PPI), especially after this morning\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed from 4.2% to 3.5% during the same 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/ppi-data-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/250149","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=250149"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/250149\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":250160,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/250149\/revisions\/250160"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/218745"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=250149"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=250149"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=250149"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=250149"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}