{"id":249947,"date":"2026-07-13T12:54:43","date_gmt":"2026-07-13T16:54:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=249947"},"modified":"2026-07-13T13:29:34","modified_gmt":"2026-07-13T17:29:34","slug":"only-27-chance-of-a-hotter-than-expected-cpi-tomorrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/only-27-chance-of-a-hotter-than-expected-cpi-tomorrow\/","title":{"rendered":"Only 27% Chance of a Hotter-Than Expected CPI Tomorrow: July 13, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow\u2019s release of the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to reflect a sharp deceleration from May\u2019s 4.2%, which many on Wall Street including myself believe to be the peak for 2026. The median estimate for the headline figure stands at 3.8%, according to the monthly Reuters poll consisting of 51 forecasters. Meanwhile, the minimum and maximum projections within this sample are hovering at 3.6% and 4%. Against this backdrop, the Interactive Brokers <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/712856687\/product-details\/contracts?exchange=FORECASTX&amp;conid_yes=763339037\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Prediction Market<\/a> sees just a 27% chance of a number coming in ahead of 3.8%, amidst a 94% likelihood that the result won\u2019t exceed 3.9%. The \u201cYeses\u201d at 3.6% and 3.7%, are going for $0.96 and $0.70, by the way.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1067\" height=\"402\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-32.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-249949 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-32.png 1067w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-32-700x264.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-32-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-32-768x289.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1067px) 100vw, 1067px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1067px; aspect-ratio: 1067\/402;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-consider-no-at-3-85-for-us-gasoline\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Consider \u201cNo\u201d at $3.85 For US Gasoline<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite the modest lift we\u2019ve seen in oil prices in the last few days, I highly doubt weekly gasoline stickers jumped from $3.777 to above $3.85 in just seven days, and for this reason I find the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/751047548\/product-details\/contracts?exchange=FORECASTX&amp;conid_yes=897526925\">\u201cNo\u201d at $3.85<\/a> significantly undervalued at $0.43. In fact, because the increase in crude has been slight, as West Texas Intermediate rose less than $10 per barrel from the $67.04 trough on July 2 to the $76.08 peak on July 8, there\u2019s even a chance that the cost has gotten cheaper as the positive lag effects from the sharp slide from March&#8217;s $120\u00a0 may have not reversed to heavier fuel charges at the pump yet, considering that expenses have become lighter for eight consecutive weeks. Besides a $0.07 jump in seven days is a tall bar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1066\" height=\"403\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-33.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-249950 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-33.png 1066w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-33-700x265.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-33-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-33-768x290.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1066px) 100vw, 1066px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1066px; aspect-ratio: 1066\/403;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>July 13, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tomorrow\u2019s release of the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to reflect a sharp deceleration from May\u2019s 4.2%, which many on Wall Street including myself believe to be the peak for 2026. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":206724,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[2180,21845],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-249947","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-consumer-price-index","tag-interactive-brokers-prediction-market","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ 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