{"id":249843,"date":"2026-07-13T11:15:54","date_gmt":"2026-07-13T15:15:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=249843"},"modified":"2026-07-14T04:13:59","modified_gmt":"2026-07-14T08:13:59","slug":"weekly-market-recap-week-of-july-13-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-week-of-july-13-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: Week of July 13, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 id=\"h-the-week-in-review\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>ISM Services PMI fell to 54.0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The trade deficit widened to $77.6bn<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-week-ahead\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>CPI<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PPI<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumer Sentiment<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a short and sweet statement, the FOMC left rates unchanged at 3.50% &#8211; 3.75% at their June meeting. Despite this decision and some expected easing in inflation, markets are still pricing in a 55% chance of a hike at the September meeting and pricing in at least one hike by the end of this year. That view likely reflects the hawkishly skewed June dot plot and was reinforced by the meeting minutes, which showed an upward revision to the inflation outlook, with inflation now expected to remain above 2% until the end of 2028. Officials also flagged AI-related spending as a potential source of current and future inflationary pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While the committee seems hawkish, it is worth remembering that only 12 of the 19 FOMC participants who normally submit dot plots have voting power. Notably, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds voting power but did not submit a dot plot in June, consistent with his push for a shift in Fed communications. While the dot plot does not identify individual participants, this week\u2019s chart uses recent speeches on growth, labor and inflation to show that the voting members of the committee currently skew more dovish than nonvoting members. Our analysis suggests the majority sit firmly in the hold or cut camp, which points to a potential disconnect with market pricing for hikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As investors weigh the Fed\u2019s next move, paying attention to the outlook of the voting members of the committee can provide more helpful context than the dot plot alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1017\" height=\"405\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-13-102134.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-249844 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-13-102134.png 1017w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-13-102134-700x279.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-13-102134-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/Screenshot-2026-07-13-102134-768x306.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1017px) 100vw, 1017px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1017px; aspect-ratio: 1017\/405;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chart of the Week: Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Output derived by machine learning\u2019s assessment of recent Fed speech,<br>public remarks and dissents. Assessment is based on a qualitative judgement of each committee member\u2019s stance on growth, inflation<br>and labor markets, and thus an assumed view of near-term policy changes.<br>Thought of the week: Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Assessment is based on a qualitative judgement of each committee<br>member\u2019s stance on growth, inflation and labor markets, and thus an assumed view of near-term policy changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted July 13, 2026 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Copyright 2024 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., July 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of July 13, 2026 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s chart highlights that despite hawkish signals, most FOMC voting members favor holding or cutting rates over hiking.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":249845,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":["post-249843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: Week of July 13, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This 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