{"id":249636,"date":"2026-07-09T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-09T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=249636"},"modified":"2026-07-09T11:08:46","modified_gmt":"2026-07-09T15:08:46","slug":"oil-surges-again-as-us-iran-war-escalates-top-economist-justin-wolfers-explains-the-hidden-pattern-driving-gas-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/oil-surges-again-as-us-iran-war-escalates-top-economist-justin-wolfers-explains-the-hidden-pattern-driving-gas-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Surges Again as US-Iran War Escalates: Top Economist Justin Wolfers Explains the \u2018Hidden Pattern\u2019 Driving Gas Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br>Fresh military strikes in the Middle East have&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/news\/politics\/26\/07\/60324761\/trump-declares-iran-ceasefire-over-says-talks-are-a-waste-of-time-report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">shattered a fragile ceasefire<\/a>, sending crude oil prices surging and guaranteeing an immediate spike in fuel costs. This rapid increase, contrasted with sluggish price drops during periods of relief, is driven by a \u201chidden pattern\u201d that economists have long tracked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-rockets-and-feathers-phenomenon\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Rockets and Feathers Phenomenon<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While consumers will see their local gas station prices jump almost instantly, relief during the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/news\/politics\/26\/07\/60350307\/trump-sours-on-iran-deal-at-nato-summit-says-lets-just-finish-the-job-as-strait-of-hormuz-violence-escalates-im-not-sure-i-want-to\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">recent ceasefire<\/a>&nbsp;was frustratingly slow. Economist Justin Wolfers, in a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/newsletter.platypuseconomics.com\/p\/the-hidden-pattern-in-gas-prices?hide_intro_popup=true\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Substack<\/a>&nbsp;post, describes this \u201chidden pattern\u201d as an asymmetric economic phenomenon where retail gas prices invariably rise \u201clike rockets, while falling like feathers.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to Wolfers\u2019 extensive economic data analysis, when&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/trading-ideas\/movers\/26\/07\/60339242\/ceasefire-cracks-oil-bounces-why-exxon-chevron-stocks-are-hot-again\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">crude oil prices rise<\/a>, retail gasoline \u201ccatches up really quickly,\u201d with most movement landing within a week. Conversely, when oil falls, the financial relief arrives in \u201cslow motion,\u201d dribbling in over several weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-renewed-conflict-triggers-oil-surge\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Renewed Conflict Triggers Oil Surge<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, President&nbsp;<strong>Donald Trump<\/strong>&nbsp;declared an interim accord with<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/news\/politics\/26\/07\/60349174\/irans-parliament-speaker-says-strait-of-hormuz-will-open-only-under-tehrans-terms-slams-us-bullying\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">&nbsp;Iran effectively \u201cover\u201d<\/a>&nbsp;after the U.S. military launched new strikes in retaliation for attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consequently, global oil markets reacted immediately, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising to $74.16 per barrel and Brent crude climbing to $78.70.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-market-realities-vs-price-gouging\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Market Realities vs. \u2018Price Gouging\u2019<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During the brief period of declining crude costs, President Trump demanded retailers&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/news\/politics\/26\/06\/60177013\/trump-warns-gasoline-retailers-to-cut-prices-as-anthony-pompliano-says-hes-acting-like-biden\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">lower pump prices<\/a>&nbsp;\u201cIMMEDIATELY,\u201d accusing companies of illegal \u201cprice gouging.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The national average currently sits at $3.7960, far above&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/markets\/commodities\/26\/06\/60121018\/trump-said-gas-prices-are-not-falling-fast-enough-but-this-analyst-says-costs-declining-faster-than-2022s-record-5-gallon-average\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Trump\u2019s $2.50 target<\/a>, while drivers in California face average costs exceeding $5.45 a gallon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wolfers notes this slow descent isn\u2019t necessarily a conspiracy. The lag often results from consumer search habits\u2014drivers shop less aggressively when prices drop\u2014or \u201ctacit strategic interaction,\u201d where neighboring gas stations simply hesitate to cut their prices first.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-oil-surges-again\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Oil Surges Again<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the last check, WTI&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/trading-ideas\/long-ideas\/26\/07\/60341396\/oil-is-up-5-this-shipping-gauge-moved-four-times-as-much\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">crude oil futures<\/a>&nbsp;were trading higher in the early New York session by 0.11% to hover around $73.60 per barrel. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On the other hand, U.S. stock futures advanced on Wednesday, as the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&amp;P 500 indices rose, following Wednesday\u2019s mixed close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted July 9, 2026 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/etfs\/sector-etfs\/26\/07\/60355937\/oil-surges-again-as-us-iran-war-escalates-top-economist-justin-wolfers-explains-the-hidden-pattern-driving-gas-prices\">Oil Surges Again as US-Iran War Escalates: Top Economist Justin Wolfers Explains the \u2018Hidden Pattern\u2019 Driving Gas Prices<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Disclaimer:<\/em><\/strong><em>&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fresh military strikes in the Middle East have shattered a fragile ceasefire, sending crude oil prices surging and guaranteeing an immediate spike in fuel costs. This rapid increase, contrasted with sluggish price drops during periods of relief, is driven by a \u201chidden pattern\u201d that economists have long tracked.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1578,"featured_media":241150,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[21,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13584],"class_list":["post-249636","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-commodities","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-benzinga"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Oil Surges Again as US-Iran War Escalates: Top Economist Justin Wolfers Explains the \u2018Hidden Pattern\u2019 Driving Gas Prices<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Fresh military strikes in the Middle East have shattered a fragile ceasefire, sending crude oil prices surging and guaranteeing an immediate spike in...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/249636\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Oil Surges Again as US-Iran War Escalates: Top Economist Justin Wolfers Explains the \u2018Hidden Pattern\u2019 Driving Gas Prices | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Fresh military strikes in the Middle East have shattered a fragile ceasefire, sending crude oil prices surging and guaranteeing an immediate spike in fuel costs. This rapid increase, contrasted with sluggish price drops during periods of relief, is driven by a \u201chidden pattern\u201d that economists have long tracked.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/oil-surges-again-as-us-iran-war-escalates-top-economist-justin-wolfers-explains-the-hidden-pattern-driving-gas-prices\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-07-09T14:30:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-07-09T15:08:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/04\/gas-prices-oil-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" 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