{"id":249235,"date":"2026-07-06T13:00:36","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T17:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=249235"},"modified":"2026-07-06T16:49:21","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T20:49:21","slug":"july-fed-hike-probability-going-for-0-11-september-at-0-28","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/july-fed-hike-probability-going-for-0-11-september-at-0-28\/","title":{"rendered":"July Fed Hike Probability Going For $0.11, September at $0.28: July 6, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s recent comment that price pressures are too elevated has sustained rate hike expectations as depicted by the yield curve. Despite acknowledging last week at the European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal, that cost risks have eased due to lower gasoline prices, his unwavering hawkishness has the odds of a rate increase at 11% this month and 28% in September. He\u2019s been attentive to the domestic monetary policy authority tolerating above-target inflation for over five years and has sought solutions to tame charge forces without sacrificing economic buoyancy or employment. Additionally, the robust jobs picture, which is hardened by a 24-month high in labor vacancies, a 12-month low in unemployment and a year-to-date monthly average payroll gain of 92k, has the committee squarely focused on the price side of its mandate, as the workforce is doing just fine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 6, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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