{"id":248933,"date":"2026-07-01T13:14:03","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T17:14:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=248933"},"modified":"2026-07-01T18:59:25","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T22:59:25","slug":"nonfarm-payrolls-111-7k-yes-going-for-0-50-heading-into-jobs-thursday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/nonfarm-payrolls-111-7k-yes-going-for-0-50-heading-into-jobs-thursday\/","title":{"rendered":"Nonfarm Payrolls 111.7k \u201cYes\u201d Going For $0.50 Heading into Jobs Thursday: July 1, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow is Jobs Thursday, rather than Friday, since Independence Day and its associated extended weekend has moved the high-impact economic indicator forward on the calendar. Interactive Brokers Prediction Market participants anticipate a June number near 111.7k, as that threshold carries <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/582530260\/product-details\/contracts?exchange=FORECASTX&amp;conid_yes=769644021\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cYes\u201d<\/a> pricing of $0.50, consistent with a coinflip. The odds are essentially in-line with the economist consensus estimate of 110k, with projections ranging from 25k to 200k, according to a Reuters poll of 70 forecasters. When analyzing probabilities from an over and under framework, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 150k, 50k and 0 are priced at $0.30, $0.81 and $0.94, indicating an elevated likelihood of a result poised to decelerate from May\u2019s 172k; however, a statistic above 100k would signal an ongoing reacceleration.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"416\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-1100x416.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-248956 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-1100x416.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-700x264.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-768x290.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image.png 1117w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/416;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-unemployment-expected-steady-at-4-3\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Unemployment Expected Steady at 4.3%<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow\u2019s unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3%, as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/573166959\/product-details\/contracts?exchange=FORECASTX&amp;conid_yes=772203802\">\u201cYes\u201d<\/a> at 4.2% and the \u201cNo\u201d at 4.3% are going for $0.69 and $0.68. Over and under, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 4.4%, 4.1% and 4% are priced at $0.07, $0.90 and $0.97, indicating a narrow range of potential outcomes. The limited set of values is also apparent in the monthly Reuters poll of 68 forecasters, which carries a median estimate of 4.3% amidst minimum and maximum projections of 4.2% and 4.4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"421\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-1-1100x421.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-248957 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-1-1100x421.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-1-700x268.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-1-300x115.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-1-768x294.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-1.png 1114w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/421;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-claims-0-76-yes-at-210k-looks-attractive\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Claims $0.76 \u201cYes\u201d at 210K Looks Attractive<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The $0.76 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/626425577\/product-details\/contracts?exchange=FORECASTX&amp;conid_yes=889755107\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u201cYes\u201d<\/a> at 210k looks attractive to me as it relates to tomorrow\u2019s initial unemployment claims, because this indicator has tended to feature summer increases in recent years and the past seven prints haven\u2019t been below that threshold. Additionally, not one of the 37 forecasters in the weekly Reuters poll expects a figure that low with projections ranging from 215k to 230k amidst a median estimate of 220k. Over and under, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 230k, 220k and 200k are going for $0.10, $0.34 and $0.94.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"418\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-2-1100x418.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-248958 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-2-1100x418.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-2-700x266.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-2-300x114.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-2-768x292.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/image-2.png 1128w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/418;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>July 1, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tomorrow is Jobs Thursday, rather than Friday, since Independence Day and its associated extended weekend has moved the high-impact economic indicator forward on the calendar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":113983,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[21845,14896],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-248933","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-interactive-brokers-prediction-market","tag-payrolls-report","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/jose-torres\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Nonfarm Payrolls 111.7k \u201cYes\u201d Going For $0.50 Heading into Jobs Thursday: July 1, 2026","description":"Tomorrow is Jobs Thursday, rather than Friday, since Independence Day and its associated extended weekend has moved the high-impact economic 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