{"id":248057,"date":"2026-06-30T14:49:52","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T18:49:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=248057"},"modified":"2026-06-30T14:56:41","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T18:56:41","slug":"is-the-strait-of-hormuz-becoming-irrelevant","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/is-the-strait-of-hormuz-becoming-irrelevant\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Strait of Hormuz Becoming Irrelevant?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As global energy producers build new pipelines and alternative export routes, could the Strait of Hormuz be losing its strategic importance? Macro strategist Sam Rines joins IBKR&#8217;s Elizaveta Gridneva to explore energy security, geopolitical risk, the resilience trade, AI and where investors may find opportunities in a rapidly changing world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Is the Strait of Hormuz Becoming Irrelevant?\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=k86s3-1aff9d2-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-401\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 401<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-elizaveta-gridneva\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Elizaveta Gridneva<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Welcome to our latest podcast. Today my guest is Sam Rines, a Global Macro Strategist for WisdomTree in the United States.\u00a0It&#8217;s\u00a0a delight to host you on this week&#8217;s podcast, Sam. Welcome to the program.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Samuel Rines<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hey, thank you so much for having me, Eliza.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-elizaveta-gridneva-0\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Elizaveta Gridneva<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Recently, you delivered a fascinating\u00a0webinar\u00a0about\u00a0possible opportunities\u00a0for investors in what you term a world on fire. We will link to the\u00a0webinar\u00a0in the show notes for anyone interested in watching the recording. And\u00a0let&#8217;s\u00a0talk\u00a0all things macro today.\u00a0Let&#8217;s\u00a0jump straight into it.\u00a0So\u00a0you emphasized the importance of having a framework rather than reacting to headlines.\u00a0What is the core\u00a0framework investors should use today to translate geopolitical shocks into actionable portfolio decisions?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-samuel-rines\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Samuel Rines<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Again, I do think that stepping back and having a framework of sorts, and it\u00a0doesn&#8217;t\u00a0have to be perfect, it can be iterated on, et cetera, is incredibly important in this political environment.\u00a0I think it&#8217;s really important to go back to the big poster boards on the White House lawn that we had about tariffs, for example.\u00a0That was\u00a0a really interesting\u00a0time for\u00a0beginning to develop a framework for dealing with the current geopolitical environment, particularly when it emanates from the US, right? We all saw those big boards. We all were like, &#8220;Wait a minute, those are very large numbers. How exactly is that going to work\u00a0out?&#8221;\u00a0&#8216;Cause\u00a0it\u00a0would&#8217;ve\u00a0been\u00a0very interesting\u00a0to see a world where the average tariff rate coming into the US was in the high 20s. But if you really dug deep and thought about what the administration in the US was looking for, you\u00a0came to a conclusion\u00a0that was\u00a0pretty straightforward, which\u00a0was this\u00a0probably isn&#8217;t\u00a0where\u00a0they&#8217;re\u00a0going to end, right?\u00a0This is\u00a0a starting\u00a0point of\u00a0a negotiation. You start up here and you\u00a0wanna\u00a0end up here, and you eventually end up where you\u00a0wanna\u00a0end up.\u00a0It&#8217;s\u00a0the same thing\u00a0with\u00a0Greenland, right? When we moved through tariffs and all of that happened and, you know, then the Supreme Court said, &#8220;No, those are illegal,&#8221; and now\u00a0they&#8217;re\u00a0getting paid back and all that fun stuff.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But then you pivoted to Greenland and NATO, and all of a&nbsp;sudden&nbsp;it was the US wants Greenland.&nbsp;We&#8217;re&nbsp;only going to accept, you know, a deal with Europe if we&nbsp;get&nbsp;Greenland, and&nbsp;we&#8217;re&nbsp;going to leave NATO and all this stuff. If you really dug into it, what did the US want? It really wanted a return to something like the &#8217;80s and &#8217;90s, where the US had significant bases in Greenland, had access to it.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And guess what? Greenland has really fallen out of the narrative.&nbsp;All of a sudden, the US got access to the bases and now it&#8217;s kind of over.&nbsp;We never hear about that anymore. The concept of leaving NATO, what did that do? It really sparked a little bit of an underlying fear within Europe that, you know, they had to&nbsp;spend on&nbsp;defense&nbsp;and, you know, that spiraled into something.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Same thing with tariffs, right? Tariffs spiraled into the US beginning to pivot, you&nbsp;know,&nbsp;US producers beginning to pivot where their things were made associated with lower tariffs.&nbsp;So&nbsp;these all had, call it&#8211; and I like to call it a resilience play, but&nbsp;we&#8217;ll&nbsp;talk about that a little later.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now you have the Iran-US-Israel conflict, and\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0very similar, right? At the start of the conflict, the US and Israel were saying: We want regime change.\u00a0It&#8217;s\u00a0going to be democratic, and\u00a0we&#8217;re\u00a0going to own all the oil. And then we had the Marco Rubio speech, and all of a sudden, the goalposts were moved to, well, it&#8217;s really about the Navy.\u00a0It&#8217;s\u00a0really about their ability to make drones and ballistic missiles and\u00a0a nuclear bomb. That is a significant shift in goalposts\u00a0all of a sudden, and I think that, again, it starts here and\u00a0kinda\u00a0goes here. Obviously,\u00a0that&#8217;s\u00a0still ongoing. Negotiations are ongoing. But you can really, if you entered with the framework of the last two major things, you kind of understood when you had this called d\u00e9tente and ceasefire, that was really something to pay attention to, that the US was likely to be done with major kinetic events and really want to negotiate an end.\u00a0So that&#8217;s really what I mean by having a framework.\u00a0It&#8217;s\u00a0understand\u00a0that when you get these\u00a0very big\u00a0claims, that really\u00a0what&#8217;s\u00a0underlying is something\u00a0that&#8217;s\u00a0a little less than what you start off with, that\u00a0you&#8217;re\u00a0going to end up coming down.\u00a0That&#8217;s really important, I think, for investors, particularly when it comes to geopolitical events and understanding how to navigate them, right?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you got scared out of markets because of tariffs, that was bad. If you got&nbsp;scared out&nbsp;of markets because of Greenland and NATO, that was bad. If you got scared out of markets because of the Iran-Israel conflict, that was bad, right?&nbsp;It was really about having a forward look into what was actually going to go on, et cetera, and maybe beginning to look through some of the oil price shocks as well.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-elizaveta-gridneva-1\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Elizaveta Gridneva<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Great, Sam. That was a really great debrief of what happened in the last months and kind of the analysis of where we should react to.\u00a0And, um, okay, if we talk about now, so currently across the geopolitical landscape, we see tariffs, conflicts, shifting alliances.\u00a0So\u00a0what do you think are the biggest investment themes you believe the market is still underappreciating?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Because you mentioned that we need to&nbsp;kind of really&nbsp;understand&nbsp;what&#8217;s&nbsp;the most important and to react to that, not to the headlines.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-samuel-rines-0\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Samuel Rines<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So\u00a0what do\u00a0I think the market\u00a0is underappreciating?\u00a0I think the market\u00a0is underappreciating the underlying strength of the global economy, specifically the US and really, on the margin, even Europe and Japan, right? Those are the big three in terms of, you know, minus China, but those are the big three in terms of the developed markets.\u00a0And when you look at those three, guess what?\u00a0They&#8217;re\u00a0holding up. You know, yes, oil is $90 to $100, but all of a\u00a0sudden\u00a0it&#8217;s one of those times where you look at same-store sales in the US via Redbook.\u00a0I love the Redbook data, and those are running 9% year over year and have been for the last month.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You know,\u00a0there&#8217;s\u00a0a lot of underlying strength in the global economy that I think is kind of shrugged aside and kind of left for dead because of sentiment indices or whatever it might be, right? Never believe what people say, believe what they do. Um, you know, people can say that\u00a0they&#8217;re\u00a0not having\u00a0a great time, but if they go out and spend,\u00a0that&#8217;s\u00a0what matters.\u00a0It\u00a0doesn&#8217;t\u00a0really matter what they\u00a0say,\u00a0it matters how they spend. And people are continuing to\u00a0spend.\u00a0Yeah,\u00a0there&#8217;s\u00a0some trade down, but trade down is still spending.\u00a0So\u00a0I would say, to me,\u00a0what&#8217;s\u00a0underappreciated in all the geopolitical shocks is that the developed world is holding up incredibly well.\u00a0It&#8217;s\u00a0not just AI,\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0not just the energy sector and, you know, call it West Texas and a few little pockets in the United States.\u00a0It&#8217;s really, I would say, pretty broad in terms of the underlying strength that has been kind of pushed aside.\u00a0And I think that&#8217;s really one of the mistakes that investors might be making, is assuming that all of these shocks are somehow going to knock the global economy into a recession instead of looking at the actual data and saying, &#8220;Oof, this actually looks pretty interesting here.\u00a0 Maybe I need to dig in a little bit more to all of what&#8217;s actually happening on the ground.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-elizaveta-gridneva-2\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Elizaveta Gridneva<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You highlighted a structural shift towards increased European defense spending.\u00a0How should investors think about gaining exposure to this theme? Specific sectors or\u00a0maybe companies?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-samuel-rines-1\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Samuel Rines<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sure. We hear a lot about European defense in terms of the conflict that the US has had with\u00a0NATO\u00a0and, you know, all the potential wranglings there. But when you look at, call it, the beginning of the Ukraine-Russia war,\u00a0I think that\u00a0is incredibly important to pay attention to because that was really a catalyst for the countries that were paying attention.\u00a0It&#8217;s\u00a0not as though Trump threatening NATO was the major catalyst. It was a catalyst, but it\u00a0wasn&#8217;t\u00a0the major catalyst. Poland is spending 5% of its GDP on defense consistently. It is doing&#8230;\u00a0It&#8217;s\u00a0seen this,\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0seen this before and\u00a0doesn&#8217;t\u00a0really want it to happen again.\u00a0So\u00a0Poland is spending an incredible amount of money.\u00a0Germany is beginning to step up to the plate and spend money, and it has the balance sheet to do it in Europe.\u00a0It&#8217;s one of the few countries that actually has a balance sheet still in Europe to do this type of investment.\u00a0And then you have the UK, you have France, you have even Italy to a degree.\u00a0Greece is also spending quite a bit. Then you have\u00a0the Nordic\u00a0countries, right?\u00a0It&#8217;s\u00a0very similar\u00a0to Poland.\u00a0They&#8217;ve\u00a0seen this story before, too. We forget the Winter War that Finland fought.\u00a0So\u00a0I do think that\u00a0there&#8217;s\u00a0a number of\u00a0catalysts there that are not short term, and\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0not reliant on headlines around NATO.\u00a0I think\u00a0that&#8217;s\u00a0really important, that this is not something where\u00a0all of\u00a0a\u00a0sudden\u00a0the Ukraine-Russia war ends and Europe is like, &#8220;Oh, okay, we&#8217;ll stop spending on defense.&#8221; This is a very\u00a0long-tailed, we call it the defense\u00a0supercycle\u00a0at WisdomTree,\u00a0very long\u00a0tail. Now, where would I be looking?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;d be looking at some of the places where people have really kind of overlooked, again, like Saab, for example, right?\u00a0At least in the US, we think of it as a car company.\u00a0That&#8217;s\u00a0not what it is anymore. They have the\u00a0Gripen,\u00a0I might have mispronounced that, but they have a very cost-effective fighter jet.\u00a0They have very cost-effective submarines, some of which Poland\u00a0are\u00a0buying.\u00a0So\u00a0I&#8217;d\u00a0be paying attention to some of those off-the-radar\u00a0kind\u00a0of companies. Alongside, and I\u00a0don&#8217;t\u00a0think this can be\u00a0overstated,\u00a0I would be paying\u00a0very close\u00a0attention to\u00a0what&#8217;s\u00a0going on with those drone companies.\u00a0When you look at the conflict in the Middle East, what are Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Dubai, Kuwait, what are they looking for?\u00a0They&#8217;re\u00a0looking for drones and drone\u00a0deterrence\u00a0and drone detection.\u00a0And who is really beginning to become the leader there?\u00a0That&#8217;s\u00a0going to\u00a0be\u00a0Europe.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To a lesser extent Asia, but\u00a0almost right\u00a0there as well. You really want to pay attention to where the incremental orders are going. It used to be if you had a conflict like this, you were going to see companies like Raytheon and Lockheed Martin really get a lot of orders out of it.\u00a0That&#8217;s\u00a0just not what\u00a0you&#8217;re\u00a0seeing this time. The marginal order is going to\u00a0drones,\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0going to lower-cost systems, and really trying to fight that asymmetric cost structure that\u00a0we&#8217;ve\u00a0seen recently in conflicts.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-elizaveta-gridneva-3\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Elizaveta Gridneva<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Really great\u00a0insight. Thank you. And\u00a0really thought-provoking, and\u00a0yeah, I really want to research some of the, at least, fields that you mentioned. And if we step back, I remember you mentioning resilient trade.\u00a0Let&#8217;s\u00a0talk about that. Can you tell us more about your\u00a0idea\u00a0on resilient trade and energy infrastructure?\u00a0Which companies, regions, or\u00a0maybe asset\u00a0classes are best positioned to\u00a0benefit\u00a0from the shift away from choke points like the Strait of\u00a0Hormuz?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-samuel-rines-2\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Samuel Rines<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So\u00a0this is a broad one, and\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0one of those, again, where I like to step back from the headlines and really dig into a little bit of history,\u00a0&#8217;cause\u00a0I do think context is always\u00a0really important. If you go back to the &#8217;80s, you had the Iran-Iraq War, and Saudi Arabia saw that and said, &#8220;Wait a minute.\u00a0This type of conflict is something that could close the Strait of\u00a0Hormuz, and that would be existential to our revenue. We need to have some resilience here.&#8221; I like to say conflict and geopolitics create resilience, and resilience creates opportunity. And what did they do?\u00a0They built the East-West Pipeline. So instead of going through the Strait of\u00a0Hormuz, seven million barrels can make it to the Red Sea very quickly and easily.\u00a0It&#8217;s\u00a0a\u00a0pretty straightforward\u00a0thing. You put the crude in the pipeline, it gets out the pipeline, and then you ship\u00a0it\u00a0and you have no exposure to the Strait of\u00a0Hormuz\u00a0on those seven million barrels.\u00a0You look at the UAE, right? The UAE has a pipeline of about 2.5 million\u00a0barrels, if\u00a0I remember correctly. And when you look at what the UAE is doing right now, what are they doing?\u00a0They&#8217;re\u00a0doubling that pipeline. And by doubling that pipeline, you\u00a0get to\u00a0roughly five\u00a0million barrels a day.\u00a0That&#8217;s more than they export on a daily basis at the moment, right?\u00a0So\u00a0all of the UAE exports will just go right around the Strait of\u00a0Hormuz\u00a0and be gone. It\u00a0wouldn&#8217;t\u00a0surprise me to see\u00a0additional\u00a0announcements out of Saudi that they are going to increase the capacity of the East-West Pipeline or build a sister pipeline next to it.\u00a0And then all of a sudden, guess what?\u00a0If you double the capacity of the East-West Pipeline, that&#8217;s more than Saudi has ever exported\u00a0on a daily basis\u00a0going to the Red Sea.\u00a0So\u00a0all of\u00a0a\u00a0sudden\u00a0you have two countries exporting, you know, call it\u00a0roughly 14\u00a0million barrels a day that have no exposure to the Strait of\u00a0Hormuz.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then Kuwait. Kuwait can plug into a couple of pipelines,\u00a0maybe go\u00a0through Syria, which\u00a0all of a sudden\u00a0is somehow one of the most stable countries in the Middle East. I\u00a0don&#8217;t\u00a0think anybody had that on their bingo card three years ago, but it is.\u00a0So\u00a0you can begin to ship it\u00a0out\u00a0a different corridor as well.\u00a0That does strand some Iraqi crude. It strands some Iranian crude, but\u00a0that&#8217;s\u00a0their own problem.\u00a0So\u00a0it&#8217;s interesting to me that this is probably Iran&#8217;s last time actually having the Strait of\u00a0Hormuz\u00a0card to pull in a conflict or in some sort of geopolitical position because what they&#8217;ve told everybody in the Middle East is, &#8220;Don&#8217;t rely on the Strait of\u00a0Hormuz.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Go around it.&#8221; And\u00a0that&#8217;s\u00a0exactly what\u00a0they&#8217;re\u00a0doing and what\u00a0they&#8217;re\u00a0capable of doing.\u00a0So\u00a0to me, by, you know, call it the end of 2027, I think\u00a0we&#8217;ll\u00a0be talking about how the Strait of\u00a0Hormuz\u00a0is\u00a0a really interesting\u00a0thing that we used to talk about and\u00a0doesn&#8217;t\u00a0matter anymore. And what does that\u00a0do?\u00a0It stabilizes the long-term energy cost because you just\u00a0don&#8217;t\u00a0care about one more choke point. You know, there are more choke points out there that might matter one day, but the Strait of\u00a0Hormuz\u00a0might not. And\u00a0so\u00a0I do think\u00a0that&#8217;s\u00a0one of the\u00a0more\u00a0interesting plays. You can look at companies that supply\u00a0the steel\u00a0for pipes.\u00a0You know, there are companies like Tenaris that are interesting and have a long history of supplying that type of project. You can really dig into\u2014no pun intended there\u2014you can really dig into who has supplied the construction labor, the engineering, et cetera, in that area.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And the other thing that this type of conflict does is it reinforces the need for less geopolitically risked supply on the energy market.\u00a0So\u00a0I would say\u00a0you&#8217;re\u00a0going to continue to see development, particularly in North and South America. That is going to continue to be a thing.\u00a0You&#8217;ve\u00a0seen Venezuela, you know,\u00a0doesn&#8217;t\u00a0get talked about a whole lot anymore, but Venezuelan exports have exploded recently.\u00a0They&#8217;re\u00a0up very significantly. You have Guyana right next to Venezuela, which used to produce absolutely no oil, call it seven years ago, and\u00a0all of a sudden,\u00a0that&#8217;s\u00a0cruising towards two, two and a half million barrels a day.\u00a0And\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0not a country that consumes most of its own oil.\u00a0It&#8217;s\u00a0a country that exports most of it, and\u00a0that&#8217;s\u00a0jointly owned by Exxon, Chevron, and the Chinese National Oil Company, CNOOC. So those are the types of plays that I would be thinking about from the energy side.\u00a0And when it comes to the resilience trade more broadly, we like to think of it as a way of contemplating what&#8217;s going to be built in the US, how it&#8217;s going to be built, et cetera, and why the Trump administration did things like funding Intel, right?\u00a0It wants foundries in the US. Why did the Trump administration do rare earths? It wants more production in the US, right? It wants that resilience against not necessarily just the Middle East, but also the potential for deteriorating relations with China, et cetera.\u00a0Again,\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0also the\u00a0reason why\u00a0the US is beginning to fund quantum in a more real and significant way.\u00a0Not only is it AI that we&#8217;re competing with, it&#8217;s also quantum and those go-forward technologies that are very important.\u00a0So overall, I would say those really are resilience trades.\u00a0They&#8217;re\u00a0not all things you necessarily want to be all in on, but\u00a0they&#8217;re\u00a0really things you want to pay attention to and pay attention to what might be the next one.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Those resilience trades have been&nbsp;very good&nbsp;as of late, and I would say&nbsp;it&#8217;s&nbsp;really about what is the next piece of resilience and how do you put a portfolio in front of that?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-elizaveta-gridneva-4\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Elizaveta Gridneva<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That&#8217;s\u00a0fascinating. Thank you.\u00a0It&#8217;s\u00a0like\u00a0you&#8217;re\u00a0drawing the picture of, you know, moving elements of the world for our listeners, so I think that will be\u00a0very interesting.\u00a0And\u00a0let&#8217;s\u00a0talk about AI a little bit. You framed AI not just as a tech trend, but also as a geopolitical arms race.\u00a0Where should investors look beyond the obvious mega-cap tech names to capture value in this build-out?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-samuel-rines-3\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Samuel Rines<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So\u00a0this is one of my favorite questions because everybody talks about the chips, everybody wants to talk about the\u00a0hyperscalers, et cetera.\u00a0They&#8217;re\u00a0important, right?\u00a0It&#8217;s\u00a0important to have NVIDIA\u00a0dominating\u00a0the AI chips.\u00a0It&#8217;s\u00a0important to have the\u00a0hyperscalers\u00a0really be at the forefront of putting AI in people&#8217;s hands. But where does it really get interesting for me on the AI investment front that people\u00a0haven&#8217;t\u00a0paid attention to?\u00a0I mean,\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0gone from just the chips and just the\u00a0hyperscalers\u00a0to now you have\u00a0optics\u00a0and you have fiber beginning to rip.\u00a0You&#8217;ve\u00a0got memory ripping. But where does it really make a difference?\u00a0It makes a\u00a0difference in\u2014we always talked about demographics 10 years ago, right? Demographics, or five years ago. The demographics were destiny, and it was always going to be a problem, et cetera, et cetera.\u00a0What does AI do? Theoretically, it makes people far more productive. And if\u00a0all of\u00a0a\u00a0sudden\u00a0you have AI making things far more productive,\u00a0maybe demographics\u00a0aren&#8217;t\u00a0as big of a deal as we thought.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So\u00a0I would say\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0worth digging into places like Japan, for example, where the demographics were supposed to be a problem. It was supposed to be this existential crisis for them.\u00a0But\u00a0there&#8217;s\u00a0an interesting company called Sompo, and\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0an insurance company in Japan, and they realized a long time ago that elder care was going to be a problem in Japan. You\u00a0didn&#8217;t\u00a0have enough young people to take care of\u00a0the older\u00a0people.\u00a0And\u00a0so\u00a0who did they partner with?\u00a0They partnered with a company called Palantir in the US a long time ago,\u00a0as in\u00a0five to six years ago,\u00a0somewhere in\u00a0there, to begin to be able to make it more efficient for people to go and provide that elder care. And they ended up owning\u00a0a very significant\u00a0stake in Palantir, and obviously, that\u00a0worked out\u00a0very well for them.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I think\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0really that type of mentality. If you approach AI\u00a0with\u00a0what does it\u00a0solve\u00a0in the medium term, what problems are being solved, what&#8217;s being underpriced at the moment, it avoids a little bit of the hype cycle.\u00a0It avoids the need to trade in and out of chips. It avoids the need to really worry about what headline&#8217;s coming out when, and it provides an opportunity to really take advantage of the longer-term structural shifts that AI, even if\u00a0it\u00a0under-delivers in terms of its promises, can actually begin to deliver on the margin.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So&nbsp;that&#8217;s&nbsp;where&nbsp;I think AI&nbsp;is incredibly undervalued right now, is really thinking about what problems it can help solve, even if it&nbsp;doesn&#8217;t&nbsp;fully solve them in the near term.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-elizaveta-gridneva-5\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Elizaveta Gridneva<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thank you, Sam. And I think the last question for today.\u00a0We discussed quite a few topics.\u00a0I think it\u00a0was super interesting. I learned quite a lot.\u00a0But if investors today are building a globally diversified portfolio,\u00a0let&#8217;s\u00a0talk about where you think they should be overweight and underweight across regions.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What&#8217;s&nbsp;the key thesis behind those positioning decisions for investors?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-samuel-rines-4\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Samuel Rines<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So\u00a0as I just said, and I do run model portfolios at WisdomTree, so\u00a0I&#8217;m\u00a0going to say where\u00a0I&#8217;m\u00a0overweight and where\u00a0I&#8217;m\u00a0underweight. So not just talking, actually\u00a0giving\u00a0where I have allocations.\u00a0I would be overweighting places like, I just said, Japan, particularly given the potential tailwind of AI and valuations.\u00a0You can get some pretty incredible global companies at pretty incredibly cheap prices that will benefit radically from AI on the margin.\u00a0Even, again, if AI under-delivers,\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0still going to\u00a0be a big deal\u00a0for these companies, and if AI over-delivers,\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0going to be tremendous.\u00a0And so overweight places like Japan.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I would be&nbsp;overweight&nbsp;things in the US that are quality on the growth front. I&nbsp;don&#8217;t&nbsp;think you have to take incremental, significant cyclical risk&nbsp;in order to&nbsp;outperform in the US, so&nbsp;I&#8217;d&nbsp;be overweighting the quality side of the portfolio, but quality growth.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u00a0don&#8217;t\u00a0think that you just want to have pure exposure to the quality side of the equation. You want to have exposure to the growth side of the equation on a quality front, paying attention to what those balance sheets are\u00a0actually looking\u00a0like and what the growth in cash flow might look like.\u00a0I think that&#8217;s going to be very important, and I think that allows a portfolio to take advantage of what AI is capable of returning to the bottom line of some of these traditionally, call it, less interesting companies from a tech perspective.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-samuel-rines-5\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Samuel Rines<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then I would be overweight, call it, the emerging world ex-China. I think\u00a0there&#8217;s\u00a0some\u00a0very interesting\u00a0opportunities there. I do think the US and China are going to be in perpetual competition for the\u00a0foreseeable future. And while China may have its cyclical booms on the equity side, I think\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0worth trying to find a way to keep up without taking that risk.\u00a0I do think\u00a0there&#8217;s\u00a0a significant amount of\u00a0sanctions\u00a0risk there. The US\u00a0kind of found\u00a0its footing when Ukraine invaded Russia in terms of how to sanction again. I would say\u00a0there&#8217;s\u00a0a substantial potential that China does get sanctioned. Well, not the entire country, but that you get individual companies sanctioned, and that creates a problem, at least for US-based investors.\u00a0But a country like India continues to grow very quickly. You can find exposure there and be overweight India\u00a0relative\u00a0to China in terms of the emerging world, and overweight places like Mexico and Poland as well. I think those two are very well-positioned to be, I would say, the China-plus-one trade, where you want to have manufacturing in places that, you know, that&#8217;s not China for tariff purposes.\u00a0Poland is\u00a0a very interesting\u00a0place to look if\u00a0you&#8217;re\u00a0a European country looking for close-in manufacturing, and Mexico continues to have\u00a0a very good\u00a0relationship with the Trump administration and has USMCA being renegotiated. And I think\u00a0there&#8217;s\u00a0a number of\u00a0reasons why you\u00a0haven&#8217;t\u00a0heard much about USMCA negotiations, and\u00a0that&#8217;s\u00a0because the negotiations, particularly with Mexico, are going very well.\u00a0So\u00a0I would be overweight\u00a0those, and\u00a0am\u00a0overweight\u00a0those two as well.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-elizaveta-gridneva-6\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Elizaveta Gridneva<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Great.\u00a0That&#8217;s\u00a0very\u00a0unique insight, that if you\u00a0haven&#8217;t\u00a0heard about something, think about it. Sam Rines has been my guest today, and\u00a0he&#8217;s\u00a0the macro strategist for WisdomTree United States. On behalf of our audience, thank you so much for taking the time to sit down with me today.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-samuel-rines-6\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Samuel Rines<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hey, thank you.\u00a0Really\u00a0appreciate it.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-elizaveta-gridneva-7\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Elizaveta Gridneva<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thank you very much. And to the audience, if you enjoyed this edition, please remember to like and subscribe to our channel. Thank you very much.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As global energy producers build new pipelines and alternative export routes, could the Strait of Hormuz be losing its strategic importance? Macro strategist Sam Rines joins IBKR&#8217;s Elizaveta Gridneva to explore energy security, geopolitical risk, the resilience trade, AI and where investors may find opportunities in a rapidly changing world.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1701,"featured_media":248058,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[15018,912,19379,21817,449,18650,11237,11507,10999,5172,3876,3109,12657,21111,21819,15171,15094,9707,1804,11024,21816,4231,6667,21818,21815,21248,199,2167,21814],"contributors-categories":[13576,13714,13638],"class_list":["post-248057","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-podcasts","category-podcasts","tag-ai-investing","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-commodity-markets","tag-defense-spending","tag-emerging-markets","tag-energy-infrastructure","tag-energy-markets","tag-energy-security","tag-energy-transition","tag-geopolitical-risk","tag-geopolitics","tag-global-economy","tag-global-investing","tag-global-macro","tag-india-investing","tag-investment-opportunities","tag-japan-stocks","tag-macro-investing","tag-middle-east","tag-nato","tag-oil-exports","tag-oil-prices","tag-portfolio-strategy","tag-resilience-trade","tag-sam-rines","tag-strait-of-hormuz","tag-tariffs","tag-us-economy","tag-wisdomtree","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers","contributors-categories-wisdomtree-europe","contributors-categories-wisdomtree-u-s"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is the Strait of Hormuz Becoming Irrelevant? | IBKR Podcasts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/248057\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is the Strait of Hormuz Becoming Irrelevant? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As global energy producers build new pipelines and alternative export routes, could the Strait of Hormuz be losing its strategic importance? Macro strategist Sam Rines joins IBKR&#039;s Elizaveta Gridneva to explore energy security, geopolitical risk, the resilience trade, AI and where investors may find opportunities in a rapidly changing world.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/is-the-strait-of-hormuz-becoming-irrelevant\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-06-30T18:49:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-06-30T18:56:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/pod20260604sam_coverimage.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Elizaveta 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