{"id":248018,"date":"2026-06-25T10:03:03","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T14:03:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=248018"},"modified":"2026-06-25T12:29:40","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T16:29:40","slug":"feds-favorite-inflation-gauge-hits-3-year-high-fueling-rate-hike-bets-updated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/feds-favorite-inflation-gauge-hits-3-year-high-fueling-rate-hike-bets-updated\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed’s Favorite Inflation Gauge Hits 3-Year High, Fueling Rate-Hike Bets (UPDATED)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Editor\u2019s note:<\/strong> This article was updated to add more detail and context.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation gauge climbed again in May as the energy shock continued to filter through the broader consumer basket, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The headline Personal Consumption Expenditure price index rose 0.4% on the month, missing the 0.5% expected after April\u2019s 0.4% gain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From a year earlier, it quickened from 3.8% to 4.1%, matching the 4.1% forecast and marking the highest reading since April 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month, matching both the previous and expected 0.3%.-<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The annual rate inched up from 3.3% to 3.4%, matching estimates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report marks the third straight uncomfortable inflation print to land on the desk of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh<\/strong>, bolstering investor bets on interest-rate increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Money markets now price a near-certain 25-basis-point hike in the fed funds rate by October 2026, with a second increase expected by March 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation Rises But US Consumers Keep Spending<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The May Personal Income and Outlays report pointed to resilient consumers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Personal income rose 0.7% on the month \u2014 its strongest gain since July 2025 and well above the 0.4% consensus \u2014 while personal spending also climbed 0.7%, or $156.1 billion, beating estimates of 0.6% and accelerating from a downwardly revised 0.4% in April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The spending gain was broad-based, with outlays rising $94.3 billion on services and $61.8 billion on goods. Adjusted for inflation, real consumer spending increased 0.3% in May after a flat reading in April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The strength in demand, set against a 0.4% rise in prices, suggests households are still spending even as the cost of living keeps climbing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Stronger Q1 GDP Print<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In a separate release, the BEA\u2019s third estimate showed the US economy grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in the first quarter, revised up from the 1.6% second estimate and a sharp acceleration from 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upgrade, however, was not driven by stronger domestic demand. It reflected almost entirely a downward revision to imports \u2014 which subtract from GDP \u2014 partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Final first-quarter real consumer spending was cut to 0.5% from prior estimates, and real final sales to private domestic purchasers, a cleaner gauge of underlying demand, was revised down to 1.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The GDP report\u2019s quarterly inflation gauges underscored the price pressure: the PCE price index rose 4.6% in Q1 and the core measure 4.4%. Corporate profits from current production increased $74.4 billion, revised up $34 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market Reaction: Relief Across The Board<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Equities pushed higher after the in-line inflation data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Futures on the S&P 500 were up 0.2% to 7,450 points, while contracts on the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Small caps led the move, the rate-sensitive corner of the market cheered the expected print.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Treasury market did the heavy lifting. The policy-sensitive 2-year yield fell about 5 basis points to 4.10%, as traders trimmed bets on a near-term hike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The dollar slipped from the one-year high it reached earlier in the session, with the US Dollar Index easing back toward 101.27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold rebounded above $4,000 an ounce, rising about 0.5% after a brutal stretch that had dragged bullion to an eight-month low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crude oil remained under heavy pressure, with West Texas Intermediate trading below $70 a barrel as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz unwound the war-risk premium that had driven prices higher during the Iran conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted June 25, 2026 – Fed’s Favorite Inflation Gauge Hits 3-Year High, Fueling Rate-Hike Bets (UPDATED)<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation gauge climbed again in May as the energy shock continued to filter through the broader consumer basket, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1128,"featured_media":218634,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13584],"class_list":["post-248018","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-benzinga"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFed’s Favorite Inflation Gauge Hits 3-Year High, Fueling Rate-Hike Bets 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