{"id":245105,"date":"2026-06-23T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-23T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=245105"},"modified":"2026-06-24T05:03:04","modified_gmt":"2026-06-24T09:03:04","slug":"do-we-drop-the-micron","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/do-we-drop-the-micron\/","title":{"rendered":"Do We Drop the Mic(ron)?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While much of the world was focused on geopolitical events, a more sizeable market-related development occurred just over three months ago.&nbsp; After the close on March 18<sup>th<\/sup>, Micron Technology (MU) reported blowout earnings and stellar guidance.&nbsp; MU, along with other memory chip stocks, has become one of the keys to the broad market rally over the past several weeks.&nbsp; That makes tomorrow\u2019s earnings report highly consequential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From the date of MU\u2019s last release until yesterday\u2019s record high close, the stock was up more than 2.5x, giving it a market capitalization of more than $1.2 trillion.&nbsp; That made MU the 7<sup>th<\/sup> largest company in the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and the 3<sup>rd<\/sup> largest component in the modified-cap-weighted Nasdaq 100 (NDX).&nbsp; Any weakness, or even a failure to clear the sky-high expectations that are already baked into this stock, could shake market sentiment.&nbsp; We saw <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/the-fault-avgo-is-in-ourselves\/\">Broadcom (AVGO) get punished<\/a> earlier this month for offering \u201conly\u201d $16 billion in revenue guidance when $17.2 billion was expected.&nbsp; A huge gain was not huge enough, and the stock plunged.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Interestingly, something similar happened to MU after its last report.&nbsp; The stock fell by about 30% in less than two weeks after its blowout earnings, though it of course nearly quadrupled from its March low through yesterday\u2019s high.&nbsp; The initial drop was the result of lofty expectations combined with global stock market malaise caused by the war in the Persian Gulf.&nbsp; Today\u2019s selling notwithstanding, the global market malaise is long behind us.&nbsp; The lofty expectations remain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>MU: 6-Months, Daily Candles, with Vertical Line at March 18<sup>th<\/sup> Earnings Date<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"686\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-66-1100x686.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-245109 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-66-1100x686.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-66-700x437.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-66-300x187.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-66-768x479.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-66.png 1178w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/686;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today we see some profit-taking in the global chip sector weighing on MU and some of its peers.&nbsp; South Korea\u2019s KOSPI was down by 10% thanks to plunges in SK Hynix and Samsung, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is down by nearly 7%.&nbsp; Some of that might be reflecting nervousness ahead of MU\u2019s earnings, but it might simply be a matter of the tendency for parabolic moves to be unstable and unpredictable.&nbsp; It could easily be a combination of both.&nbsp; Let\u2019s see how options traders might be viewing the risk\/reward calculus ahead of tomorrow afternoon\u2019s report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The IBKR Probability Lab shows some modest risk aversion reflected in options expiring on Friday.&nbsp; We see a peak probability around the 1040 level, about 4% below the current market price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for MU Options Expiring June 26, 2026<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"577\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-67-1100x577.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-245110 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-67-1100x577.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-67-700x367.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-67-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-67-768x403.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-67.png 1381w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/577;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders in NDX options that expire on Thursday are not particularly biased, though.&nbsp; The peak probability is at the current index level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for NDX Options Expiring June 25, 2026<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"577\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-68-1100x577.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-245111 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-68-1100x577.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-68-700x367.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-68-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-68-768x403.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-68.png 1377w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/577;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Skews for near-term options show a considerable amount of risk aversion.&nbsp; At-money options are pricing in roughly 11% daily moves between now and Friday, which is well above the 6-quarter average of 7% (-3.78%, 10.21%, -2.82%, -0.98%, -8.04%, -16.18%).&nbsp; Then again, MU is down 11% today.&nbsp; Skews are steep, with highly asymmetrical downside.&nbsp; Remember that we have seen relatively flat or even upside skews on several tech-related options ahead of their earnings reports.&nbsp; Perhaps this reflects the fact that MU has fallen after 5 of its past 6 reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Skews for MU Options Expiring June 26 (green), July 2 (dark blue), July 10, 2026 (light blue)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"577\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-68-1100x577.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-245112 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-68-1100x577.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-68-700x367.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-68-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-68-768x403.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-68.png 1377w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/577;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While much of the world was focused on geopolitical events, a more sizeable market-related development occurred just over three months ago.\u00a0 After the close on March 18th, Micron Technology (MU) reported blowout earnings and stellar guidance.\u00a0 MU, along with other memory chip stocks, has become one of the keys to the broad market rally over the past several weeks.\u00a0 That makes tomorrow\u2019s earnings report highly consequential.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":242358,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-245105","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Do We Drop the Mic(ron)? | Traders&#039; 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