{"id":245097,"date":"2026-06-23T13:08:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-23T17:08:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=245097"},"modified":"2026-06-23T13:52:00","modified_gmt":"2026-06-23T17:52:00","slug":"650k-no-on-new-home-sales-going-for-just-0-38","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/650k-no-on-new-home-sales-going-for-just-0-38\/","title":{"rendered":"650K \u201cNo\u201d On New Home Sales Going for Just $0.38: June 23, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Tomorrow\u2019s May US New Home Sales print is expected to come in at 640k seasonally adjusted annualized units, which would mark a modest increase from April\u2019s 622k. The publication is projected to be the fourth result of the year under 650k; however, the Interactive Brokers’ Predictive Market \u201cNo\u201d contract<\/a> at that threshold costs just $0.38, offering a wide path for a triple-like opportunity for investors who would receive $1.00 if the release fails to exceed that level. Real estate data have been sluggish lately, as elevated mortgage rates and pricey valuations limit transaction momentum, and for that reason I find this trade to be undervalued. Additionally, I also think the \u201cNos\u201d at 625k, 700k and 725k are attractive as I believe participants in the interactive Brokers Prediction Market are too optimistic for this specific release; the contracts are priced at $0.13, $0.83 and $0.83. Turning to the monthly Reuters poll of 42 forecasters, the minimum and maximum values stand at 602k and 675k against the backdrop of a 639k median. Finally, this gauge is notoriously volatile and sports a lofty deviation rate, indicating a high potential for significant surprises on a relative basis.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Interactive<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 23, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tomorrow\u2019s May US New Home Sales print is expected to come in at 640k seasonally adjusted annualized units, which would mark a modest increase from April\u2019s 622k.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":182301,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[2543],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-245097","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-new-home-sales","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n650K \u201cNo\u201d On New Home Sales 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