{"id":245036,"date":"2026-06-23T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-23T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=245036"},"modified":"2026-06-24T05:10:51","modified_gmt":"2026-06-24T09:10:51","slug":"why-the-fed-may-need-to-stay-patient","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/why-the-fed-may-need-to-stay-patient\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the Fed may need to stay patient"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 id=\"h-key-takeaways\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Monetary policy tightening has often occurred in the later stages of market cycles, which is why inflation expectations matter for the next Federal Reserve (Fed) move.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Oil prices dropped dramatically, inflation breakevens have followed, and inflation pressures have faded.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Fed\u2019s most prudent course, in my view, is patience. Based on current conditions, the next move may be easing, not a hike.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019m often asked when I would finally turn negative on financial markets. My answer rarely changes. It\u2019s when the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/what-is-federal-reserve-inflation.html\">Fed<\/a>&nbsp;raises&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/what-is-interest-rate.html\">interest rates<\/a>&nbsp;and ends the cycle. Except for the brief and anomalous 2020 COVID-19 recession, monetary policy tightening has often occurred in the later stages of market cycles. That\u2019s why I watch&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/what-is-inflation-fed-measure.html\">inflation<\/a>&nbsp;expectations as closely as I do. They tell you how the Fed is performing on its price\u2011stability mandate, recognizing that it must also pursue maximum employment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That\u2019s what made last week so puzzling. Reports that the Fed is split on whether to raise rates caught my attention. Not because the debate is inherently surprising, but because it feels disconnected from the world we\u2019re living in today. It made me wonder whether policymakers still believe it\u2019s March 2026, or whether they\u2019ve noticed that three months have passed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Changes since March<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Back in March, following the outbreak of the war with Iran, the inflation story was obvious. Oil prices surged.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/fed-markets-inflation-policy-stocks.html#1\">1<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;The 3\u2011year Treasury inflation breakeven pushed toward a 3% peak on March 18.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/fed-markets-inflation-policy-stocks.html#2\">2<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;The 5\u2011year breakeven climbed to 2.74% on the same date.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/fed-markets-inflation-policy-stocks.html#3\">3<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;I took some comfort in the fact that the 5\u2011year never breached 3.0% the way it did in 2022 during the supply\u2011chain crunch and Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. But still, the direction was clear. Inflation expectations were rising, and the Fed had reason to sound vigilant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But that was March. Today\u2019s environment is fundamentally different. Oil prices have dropped dramatically.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/fed-markets-inflation-policy-stocks.html#4\">4<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;Inflation breakevens have followed.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/fed-markets-inflation-policy-stocks.html#5\">5<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;The 1\u2011year breakeven is now below 2%, a level that hardly suggests \u201coverheating.\u201d<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/fed-markets-inflation-policy-stocks.html#6\">6<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;If anything, it may be the opposite. Inflation pressures have been fading, not accelerating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So why exactly would the Fed be raising rates? It\u2019s not as if the economy is running hot. Job growth has been relatively soft, despite the recent three\u2011month stretch of better\u2011than\u2011expected gains.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/fed-markets-inflation-policy-stocks.html#7\">7<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;Wage growth has been moderating.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/fed-markets-inflation-policy-stocks.html#8\">8<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;That\u2019s why last Thursday\u2019s Fed\u2011induced market selloff and the flattening of the yield curve left me scratching my head. The market seemed to react to a Fed that\u2019s still fighting the war\u2011driven inflation scare of early spring rather than the reality of mid\u2011June. The stance feels backward\u2011looking, as if policymakers were anchored to the moment oil spiked rather than when it dropped dramatically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed on hold<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In my view, the Fed remains on hold, and the next move (whenever it comes) may more likely be an easing than a hike. The current shape of the yield curve suggests policy may be restrictive. If the Fed were to tighten into this backdrop, it could risk contributing to a downturn it\u2019s trying to avoid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The upshot is that the cycle has continued. Peaks in oil, interest rates, and inflation expectations<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/fed-markets-inflation-policy-stocks.html#9\">9<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;have often coincided with turning points that can support broader markets, not undermine them.&nbsp;Unless the data shifts meaningfully \u2014 and right now it has still shifted in the opposite direction of what a rate hike would require \u2014 the Fed\u2019s most prudent course to me is patience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What to watch this week<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>Date<\/strong><\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>Region<\/strong><\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>Event<\/strong><\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>Why it matters<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">June 22<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">China<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Loan Prime Rate decision<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Signals whether policy support is shifting<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">China<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Foreign direct investment (May)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Shows whether capital inflows are stabilizing<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Europe<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde speech<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">May frame the next leg of policy expectations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">June 23<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Europe<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Germany and Eurozone Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index (PMI) (flash, June)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Early read on growth momentum and pricing pressure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">S&amp;P Global&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/what-is-purchasing-managers-index-pmi.html\">Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index<\/a>&nbsp;(PMI) (flash, June)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Timely check on the economy\u2019s speed limit<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">June 24<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">New home sales (May)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Shows how rates are flowing through housing<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">June 25<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Gross domestic product (GDP) (third estimate, Q1)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Confirms how much growth cooled to start the year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Durable goods orders (May)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Read-through on business investment appetite<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Initial jobless claims<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">High-frequency check on labor market cracks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Japan<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Consumer Price Index (CPI) (June)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Key test of whether inflation is sticking<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">June 26<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Personal income and outlays, including Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation (May)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">University of Michigan consumer sentiment (final, June)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Shows whether consumers are feeling better or worse<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">China<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Industrial profits (May)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Tests whether factory margins are improving<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted on June 22, 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/fed-markets-inflation-policy-stocks.html\">Why the Fed may need to stay patient<\/a> &#8211; by Invesco US<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Footnotes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Source: Bloomberg L.P., June 18, 2026, based on US West Texas Intermediate Crude Sweet Oil.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg L.P., June 18, 2026, based on the 3-year US Treasury inflation breakeven. A breakeven inflation rate is a market-derived estimate of future inflation, calculated by comparing the yield on a standard government bond (nominal) to the yield on a Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) of the same maturity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg, L.P., June 16, 2026, based on the 5-year US Treasury inflation breakeven.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg L.P., June 18, 2026, based on US West Texas Intermediate Crude Sweet Oil.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg L.P., June 16, 2026, based on the 3- and 5-year US Treasury inflation breakeven.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg L.P., June 16, 2026, based on the 1-year US Treasury inflation breakeven.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 31, 2026, based on nonfarm payrolls.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 31, 2026, based on average hourly earnings.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg L.P., June 18, 2026, based on US West Texas Intermediate Crude Sweet Oil, the 10-year US Treasury rate, and the 5-year US Treasury inflation breakeven.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Monetary policy tightening has often occurred in the later stages of market cycles, which is why inflation expectations matter for the next Federal Reserve (Fed) move.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":177,"featured_media":206992,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13606],"class_list":["post-245036","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-invesco-us"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why the Fed may need to stay patient | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Monetary 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