{"id":244698,"date":"2026-06-22T11:45:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-22T15:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=244698"},"modified":"2026-06-23T05:03:23","modified_gmt":"2026-06-23T09:03:23","slug":"fed-rate-hikes-are-coming-bank-of-america-warns-in-shocking-hawkish-call","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/fed-rate-hikes-are-coming-bank-of-america-warns-in-shocking-hawkish-call\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Rate Hikes Are Coming, Bank Of America Warns In Shocking Hawkish Call"},"content":{"rendered":"\n


The Federal Reserve may be preparing to deliver a series of interest-rate hikes that few investors are currently expecting.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bank of America delivered a sharp hawkish pivot on Monday, telling clients it now expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 75 basis points before the end of 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The call marks a striking reversal that puts the bank well ahead of the market pricing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bank\u2019s economist Aditya Bhave said he sees three straight 25bp hikes in September, October and December, lifting the federal funds rate to 4.25%-4.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is about 25 basis points more, and three months earlier, than the market, which has priced in two hikes by March 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bank of America now holds one of the most hawkish rate calls on Wall Street.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed\u2019s Warsh Signals Regime Shift<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The new forecast follows a more hawkish-than-expected June Federal Open Market Committee meeting and recent comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh<\/strong>, which the bank reads as evidence that policymakers have pivoted toward inflation risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe data call for hikes,\u201d Bhave said, adding that both recent economic data and the Fed\u2019s updated reaction function support tighter monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bank described the change as a shift \u201cfrom risk management to supply shock management.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation has reaccelerated even as many expected price pressures to keep cooling. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation could reach 3.5% in May, roughly 70 basis points above year-ago levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While tariffs and other temporary factors have contributed to the increase, economists believe the Fed is growing less tolerant of repeated supply-side inflation shocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation, Bhave said, has \u201cgotten unambiguously worse.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strengthening labor-market conditions have also removed one of the main justifications for last year\u2019s easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cPowell framed last year\u2019s 75bp of cuts as \u2018risk management\u2019 cuts, due to the slowdown in labor data,\u201d Bhave said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBut the labor market has firmed up this year,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hawkish case is reinforced by growth. BofA lifted its second-quarter GDP tracking estimate to 2.8% annualized, driven by a strong May retail sales print alongside upward revisions \u2014 hardly the backdrop for a central bank looking to ease.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What It Means For Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The call reframes how rate risk is priced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Fed tightening into a resilient economy pressures bond prices, pushes yields higher and complicates the rate-sensitive corners of an equity market that rallied to records this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a previous\u00a0article<\/a>, we noted that the U.S. dollar index has historically been one of the biggest beneficiaries of a Fed rate-hike regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors next turn to Fed Governor Christopher Waller,<\/strong> who delivers remarks Monday in the first key commentary following the hawkish June FOMC meeting, for confirmation that the rest of the committee is leaning the same way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted June 22, 2026 – Fed Rate Hikes Are Coming, Bank Of America Warns In Shocking Hawkish Call<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Federal Reserve may be preparing to deliver a series of interest-rate hikes that few investors are currently expecting.<\/p>\n

Bank of America delivered a sharp hawkish pivot on Monday, telling clients it now expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 75 basis points before the end of 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1128,"featured_media":225598,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13584],"class_list":["post-244698","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-benzinga"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFed Rate Hikes Are Coming, Bank Of America Warns In Shocking Hawkish Call<\/title>\n<meta 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