{"id":244576,"date":"2026-06-18T12:59:43","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T16:59:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=244576"},"modified":"2026-06-19T04:32:01","modified_gmt":"2026-06-19T08:32:01","slug":"meet-the-new-boss-not-the-same-as-the-old-boss","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/meet-the-new-boss-not-the-same-as-the-old-boss\/","title":{"rendered":"Meet the New Boss, Not the Same as the Old Boss"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Kevin Warsh certainly began his new term as Federal Reserve Chair with a bang.  As I noted to a reporter yesterday<\/a>, \u201cany new CEO worth his salt \u2013 and he is the CEO of a huge institution \u2013 is going to want to do things his way.\u201d  He certainly made that clear during yesterday\u2019s press conference.  Markets seemed relatively sanguine<\/a> ahead of the FOMC meeting.  That changed in a hurry as the afternoon progressed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations for rate action at yesterday\u2019s meeting were essentially nil, but there was no shortage of potential surprises.  We wrote on Tuesday<\/a> about a key question that investors needed to ask themselves:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First and foremost, is he a hawk or a dove?  During his previous tenure at the Fed, Warsh was known as a hawk, especially when he pushed back against some of the monetary stimulus that was implemented in response to the Global Financial Crisis.  Yet he was nominated for the Chair by a President who has vocally pushed for interest rate cuts throughout his second term, so it is difficult to imagine that Warsh was able to obtain the nod without portraying at least some predilection for lower rates. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, we certainly learned the proper avian analogy.  It was clearly the raptor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The relatively sparse FOMC Statement<\/a> set the initial tone.  Chair Warsh indicated that he wanted to reassess the amount of guidance that the FOMC offers, and that was the first sign of his reluctance to offer as much as his predecessors.  Entire sentences and even paragraphs about assessing incoming data and its implications were omitted.  (Here is a strikethrough comparison<\/a>.) So too was a paragraph about how the individual members voted, though that was superfluous after a unanimous decision.  (By the way, customers of IBKR Prediction Markets got that one largely correct.  We noted on Tuesday<\/a> that there was a 70% \u201cYes\u201d for zero dissents.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once Warsh took the podium it became evident that his tone was very different from the reassuring \u201cGoldilocks in a Suit<\/a>\u201d tone that Jerome Powell mastered and investors enjoyed.  With rare exceptions<\/a>, traders could grasp something hopeful in his commentary, allowing traders to choose their preferred adventure.  Warsh was offering none of that.  Yet some of the items were generally thought-provoking, such as the announcements about five task forces<\/a> focusing on reforming the following areas: communication, balance sheet, data sources, jobs in an evolving economy, and inflation frameworks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Short-term rates bore the brunt of the market reaction.  On Tuesday, Fed Funds futures were pricing in a 50% chance for a hike by October, with the first hike fully priced in for March.  By yesterday afternoon, an October hike was fully priced in. (IBKR Forecast Trader<\/a> customers are far less certain, with a 67% \u201cNo\u201d for rates at least 3.75% by October.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That change in expectations was reflected in 2-year yields, which rose by 13 basis points.  Yet 10-year yields only rose by 5 basis points, implying that traders were taking the new Chair at his word that quelling longer-term inflation was a serious concern.  That led to the flattest yield curve in over a year.  Today, with 2-years bouncing back by 2 basis points and 10-years recouping yesterday\u2019s move, that spread is down to 28 basis points. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of our investing mantras is that if markets have difficulty pricing low-volatility assets, like 2-year notes, how are they supposed to price riskier assets like stocks?  Traders had great difficulty doing so yesterday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, however, is another matter.  Never underestimate stock traders\u2019 willingness to step into any breach in tech stocks\u2019 upward momentum.  There was some positivity that arose from the signing of the memorandum of understanding with Iran, even though plenty of positivity had already been wrung out of that deal (see Monday\u2019s \u201cBuy the Rumor, Buy the (Sort of) News<\/a>\u201d).  The news about Apple (AAPL) buying Intel (INTC) chips \u2013 at the behest of INTC\u2019s 10% government investor \u2013 led to a 6.5% rally in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) that pushed that measure past Monday\u2019s record high.  That index was relatively unscathed yesterday, as it bounced 1.4% after falling 5.7% on Tuesday.   And as the semis go, so does the entire tech sector.  The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is up more than 2% today after losing 1% yesterday, and that has led to 1% rally in the S&P 500 (SPX) that has nearly recouped yesterday\u2019s 1.2% fall.  No good dip remains unbought for long.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kevin Warsh certainly began his new term as Federal Reserve Chair with a bang. As I noted to a reporter yesterday, \u201cany new CEO worth his salt \u2013 and he is the CEO of a huge institution \u2013 is going to want to do things his way.\u201d He certainly made that clear during yesterday\u2019s press conference. Markets seemed relatively sanguine ahead of the FOMC meeting. That changed in a hurry as the afternoon progressed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":181906,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-244576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMeet the New Boss, Not the Same as the Old Boss<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Kevin Warsh certainly began his new term as Federal Reserve Chair with a bang. 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