{"id":244379,"date":"2026-06-17T12:07:26","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T16:07:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=244379"},"modified":"2026-06-17T14:24:08","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T18:24:08","slug":"whos-really-in-control-markets-inflation-or-the-fed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/whos-really-in-control-markets-inflation-or-the-fed\/","title":{"rendered":"Who\u2019s Really in Control: Markets, Inflation or the Fed?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this IBKR Podcast episode, Scott Bauer and Jeff Praissman break down whether price action is being driven more by macroeconomic forces, central bank decisions or trader positioning &#8211; and what that means for what comes next..<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Who\u2019s Really in Control: Markets, Inflation or the Fed?\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=v7cab-1aeff02-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-395\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 395<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hi, everyone. This is Jeff Praissman with Interactive Brokers Podcast.\u00a0It&#8217;s\u00a0my pleasure to welcome to the podcast studio Scott Bauer, Prosper Trading Academy. Hey, Scott. How are you?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scott Bauer<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jeff, I am great. How are you?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-0\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;m\u00a0good. And love\u00a0having you come in every other week for our quick market rundowns.\u00a0And j-\u00a0you know, for our audience, we go through the past week in the market and then\u00a0kinda\u00a0look ahead a little bit as well.\u00a0Scott,\u00a0lot\u00a0of activity, right, in the market. And, you know, what were some of the biggest drivers of the market performance over the past week? And, you know, in general, how did equities react across different sectors?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I mean, we certainly\u00a0have to, you know, go to Iran, right? Geopolitics and what may be happening at the end of this week, and the market certainly, you know, took that as\u00a0very positive\u00a0news. Oil prices, you know, I guess we could\u00a0probably use\u00a0the ad- adjective\u00a0maybe plummeting\u00a0or\u00a0maybe that&#8217;s\u00a0a verb.\u00a0But you know, I think oil, the oil price reaction certainly helped the markets, especially the Dow. And you know, now that earnings season is over,\u00a0I think that\u00a0is squarely the focus for the markets right now.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-1\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah, and I imagine there&#8217;s kind of like a, you know, flow-through effect if you know,\u00a0ener- oil becomes low, then helps out the\u00a0consumers\u00a0and it may help out some other sectors as well, like retail.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-0\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0supposed to\u00a0work.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-2\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yep. You know, every time we talk, there&#8217;s obviously economic releases like every day at this point.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So&nbsp;what are some of the key ones that had an effect on the market, you know, last week? And what did, you know, what kind of signal about the health of the economy did they show?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-1\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Well,\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0so interesting because, you know, CPI and PPI still show that inflation is absolutely a problem, yet the market\u00a0kind of shrugged\u00a0it off.\u00a0Eco data across the board really continues to be fairly strong.\u00a0So, you know, I\u00a0th-\u00a0I think the market\u00a0is\u00a0somewhat grappling\u00a0with the inflation data, but balanced off by, okay, things are calming down overseas.\u00a0Things\u00a0are looking\u00a0good. Obviously, we have\u00a0big\u00a0Fed announcement. But for me, it&#8217;s\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0the CPI and PPI last week, and then I know\u00a0we&#8217;re\u00a0gonna\u00a0bring this up here momentarily, but next week we get some more inflation data.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-3\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yeah. I was\u00a0gonna\u00a0say you know, obviously the second part of that question is you know,\u00a0what&#8217;s\u00a0coming up a week, you know, next week, right? What did we just get through and find\u00a0out\u00a0and what, you know, what should the traders be paying attention to next week?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scott Bauer:&nbsp;So&nbsp;we get FOMC now, but then really, you know, looking to next week, we get PCE. So that is going to be huge. PCE and GDP. Is&nbsp;PCE g-&nbsp;going to show the same thing that CPI and PPI showed? Is it going to just, you know, give us&nbsp;kind of a&nbsp;clear path and&nbsp;we&#8217;ll&nbsp;see what the reaction is, especially after Fed announcement that we get later today.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-4\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gotcha. And, you know,\u00a0we&#8217;re\u00a0gonna\u00a0go to your favorite subject,\u00a0the VIX. We saw volatility pull back, you know, last week.\u00a0I think it\u00a0was trading around 16 or so, kind of hovering in that area.\u00a0So\u00a0what does that tell us about the investor sentiment and\u00a0kind of their\u00a0positioning right now?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-2\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Absolutely that the more macro environment people are, I don&#8217;t want to say complacent because a VIX at 16 is really not complacent, but they&#8217;re, I&#8217;d say, more at ease.\u00a0If we saw the VIX down at, you know, low teens, then\u00a0we&#8217;d\u00a0talk about complacency. But I think that, you know, both the retail side and institutional side are looking at things and saying\u00a0that,\u00a0&#8220;You know what?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There, there still could really be some upside here, but&nbsp;we&#8217;re&nbsp;willing to, you know, with a VIX right in that, you know, mid-teen range&nbsp;there,&nbsp;we&#8217;re&nbsp;willing to still buy some protection.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-5\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Got it.\u00a0So\u00a0kind of hedging\u00a0the bets a little bit, but y- you know, feeling a little optimistic as well.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-3\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Exactly.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-6\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And, you know, finally, what are you know, what are markets currently pricing in for these upcoming events, and where do you think we could see some surprises come out?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-4\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is so much upside call buying in the indices, Jeff, a-as, as you know, that, you know, whether it&#8217;s coming from the retail side or institutional side, there is s- so much optimism here.\u00a0So\u00a0what could derail this? Obviously, if we get to Friday and the, you know, memo of understanding or agreement that we have, if something falls apart, that could\u00a0probably hit\u00a0the markets a little bit.\u00a0If Warsh and the FOMC\u00a0kind of say\u00a0something that,\u00a0that the market is not expecting, we could see, you know, some problems there as well. But right\u00a0now\u00a0I\u00a0don&#8217;t\u00a0want to say\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0all systems\u00a0go\u00a0for the marketplace, but with everything the market has come up against, boy, has it responded resiliently. The one thing\u00a0I&#8217;ve\u00a0really been focused on is even with the pressure now that the Fed is more than likely going to raise\u00a0rates,\u00a0the market is certainly comfortable with the 10-year sitting right around, what, 4.40, 4.42 or so.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-jeff-praissman-7\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scott, as always, this has been great for our listeners. You can find more from Scott at prospertrading.com as well as on our website interactivebrokers.com. Click on Education, find past podcasts, webinars,\u00a0articles\u00a0everything from, you know, Scott and Prosper Trading Academy. Scott, once again, thank you for\u00a0swinging by\u00a0the studio and looking forward to our next chat.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-scott-bauer-5\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Me too.\u00a0Thanks\u00a0so much, Jeff.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this IBKR Podcast episode, Scott Bauer and Jeff Praissman break down whether price action is being driven more by macroeconomic forces, central bank decisions or trader positioning &#8211; and what that means for what comes 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\"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2024\\\/05\\\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg\",\n\t                \"width\": 669,\n\t                \"height\": 669,\n\t                \"caption\": \"Interactive Brokers\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"publishingPrinciples\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/about-ibkr-campus\\\/\",\n\t            \"ethicsPolicy\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/cyber-security-notice\\\/\"\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Person\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/f47d7b3d455b7dd41e4b36f95ea08ba4\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Jeff Praissman\",\n\t            \"description\": \"Jeff Praissman is the Sr. Trading Education Specialist at 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