{"id":244138,"date":"2026-06-11T12:55:58","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T16:55:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=244138"},"modified":"2026-06-11T20:09:47","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T00:09:47","slug":"consider-nos-on-umich-consumer-sentiment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/consider-nos-on-umich-consumer-sentiment\/","title":{"rendered":"Consider \u201cNos\u201d on UMich Consumer Sentiment: June 11, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The University of Michigan\u2019s (UMich) Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a record low of 44.8 last month and a sharp recovery isn\u2019t expected. Many of the struggles from the prior report still exist, namely the Middle East conflict leading to pain at the pump and geopolitical anxiety, elevated inflation, sluggish paycheck increases and high mortgage rates. Against this backdrop, the median estimate in the monthly Reuters poll of 42 forecasters is 46 amidst minimum and maximum projections of 42 and 48.5. Meanwhile the \u201cNos\u201d <\/a>at 48 and at 50 are going for what I consider to be undervalued prices of $0.17 and $0.47. The trades are profitable on a number equal to or less than 48 in the former case, or 50 in the latter example. While the preliminary print is due tomorrow, this contract does settle upon release of the final publication on June 26. Historically, revisions have averaged a change of around plus or minus 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Preliminary CPI At 124.9<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Germany\u2019s preliminary May Consumer Price Index (CPI) print was 124.9 and there\u2019s an expectation that tomorrow\u2019s final result will arrive right around there as well. Indeed, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market prices the 125 \u201cYes\u201d<\/a> at $0.16, implying just a 16% chance of a number of 125.1 or higher. Over and under, the 124 and 126 thresholds are out of reach with elevated degrees of certainty above 95%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Consider \u201cYeses\u201d On India CPI<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The monthly increase expected in India\u2019s CPI is poised to deliver a number near 105.5, considering that April\u2019s figure was at 105.1. But the \u201cYeses\u201d<\/a> at 104 and 105 are going for undervalued prices of $0.93 and $0.81, in my opinion, requiring a May decline in inflation to potentially lose money. The path to a decrease here is narrow, as heavier fuel costs likely pushed this gauge up meaningfully.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 11, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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