{"id":244097,"date":"2026-06-10T12:57:36","date_gmt":"2026-06-10T16:57:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=244097"},"modified":"2026-06-11T04:36:06","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T08:36:06","slug":"i-shouldnt-leave","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/i-shouldnt-leave\/","title":{"rendered":"I Shouldn\u2019t Leave"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Some of you might have noticed that I\u2019ve been quiet for a couple of days.  (At least I hope you\u2019ve noticed\u2026)  I\u2019ve been traveling on business for the past couple of days, so while I have been engaged in markets, I haven\u2019t had the opportunity to write my daily pieces or comment publicly about the recent volatility.  One of my out-of-office messages says, \u201cdon\u2019t let the markets crash in my absence.\u201d  After the volatility of the past few days, that remark seems even snarkier than usual.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of time constraints today, I\u2019ll need to be brief. We\u2019re now seeing what happens when consensus gets shaken and momentum breaks.  Some of the most reliable themes were shattered in recent days.  While their recent demise does not definitively portend that they will continue to fail, the longer the damage persists, the harder it will be to resuscitate these market drivers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6-Days, ES (red\/green 5-minute candles, right scale), NQ (blue line, left) June Futures<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The above chart shows the damage that has occurred since last Wednesday, the day before Broadcom (AVGO) earnings were released.  A key narrative was punctured after that day\u2019s close \u2013 that AI-related revenues and earnings<\/a> were going to climb unimpeded for the near future.  After a solid run of positive earnings and guidance from a range of the recipients of that largesse, AVGO reported poor revenue guidance for the coming quarter.  Note, however, that stocks rallied on Thursday, nonetheless.  The key themes were intact, at least for that day.  It took another day for them to unravel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. The idea of unrelenting spending pushing semiconductor stocks ever higher was punctured on Friday, when the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell more than 10%.\u00a0 That selling continued into Asian trading on Monday, when South Korea\u2019s KOSPI index fell by more than 8%.\u00a0 While SOX was able to recoup about half its losses on Monday, the index has since given back most of those gains and is less than 1% above Friday\u2019s close as I type this.\u00a0 Remember, parabolic moves are inherently unstable and typically end badly and with unpredictable timing.\u00a0 Even modest profit-taking has dramatic effects in that sort of environment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. The notion that \u201cbuy-the-dip\u201d works all the time every time has taken a bit of a turn this week.\u00a0 Even though SOX was able to bounce substantially on Monday (before falling the next day and a half), the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have not managed meaningful bounces from Friday\u2019s close.\u00a0 There have been attempts to rally, but those were fleeting, leading to only a modest bump on Monday and sharper selling yesterday.\u00a0 It seemed as though there were hopeful rallies, perhaps reflecting genuine enthusiasm, perhaps staged to get excitable rally-chasers to follow along, but they failed.\u00a0 Nonetheless, key benchmarks did bounce nicely off yesterday\u2019s lows and we\u2019re yet to test them again today.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. The ratchet gave way<\/a>.\u00a0 After weeks of reliable rallies when the President offered hopeful news about an end to hostilities in the Persian Gulf, traders were unprepared when shooting resumed yesterday and today.\u00a0 We are certainly not back to the level of shooting that prevailed in March, but we are also more than three months into the war with no tangible progress toward ending it.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    The failure to maintain a rally or even a sustainable bounce is more concerning to me than the fact that we\u2019ve had a few down days in the past week.  There is no incontrovertible evidence of a major psychological change, but there are many more warning signs of one than just a week ago.  Now, I\u2019m off to the airport\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Some of you might have noticed that I\u2019ve been quiet for a couple of days.\u00a0 (At least I hope you\u2019ve noticed\u2026)\u00a0 I\u2019ve been traveling on business for the past couple of days, so while I have been engaged in markets, I haven\u2019t had the opportunity to write my daily pieces or comment publicly about the recent volatility.\u00a0 One of my out-of-office messages says, \u201cdon\u2019t let the markets crash in my absence.\u201d\u00a0 After the volatility of the past few days, that remark seems even snarkier than 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Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/market-down-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/244097","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=244097"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/244097\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/244104"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=244097"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=244097"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=244097"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=244097"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}