{"id":244035,"date":"2026-06-09T13:05:26","date_gmt":"2026-06-09T17:05:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=244035"},"modified":"2026-06-09T13:24:29","modified_gmt":"2026-06-09T17:24:29","slug":"tomorrows-cpi-expected-at-4-2-while-core-projected-at-2-9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/tomorrows-cpi-expected-at-4-2-while-core-projected-at-2-9\/","title":{"rendered":"Tomorrow\u2019s CPI Expected at 4.2%, While Core Projected at 2.9%: June 9, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Tomorrow\u2019s May Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to climb 4.2% year over year (y\/y), the highest in 37 months, or since April 2023, as heavier energy costs from the Middle East war drive the indicator north. This gauge is well telegraphed by Wall Street and has a narrow range of potential outcomes with the monthly Reuters poll of 47 forecasters having minimum and maximum estimates of 4.1% and 4.3%. In the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market<\/a>, meanwhile, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 4.1%, 4.2% and 4.3% costing $0.93, $0.43 and $0.08.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Housing To Weigh on Core<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

But the slower moving core segment, which excludes food and energy prices due to their volatility, is projected to be 3% at 2.9% y\/y, as it takes a few months for elevated fuel costs to begin spreading more broadly to goods and services. Additionally, heavy interest rates and immigration restriction have weighed on rent growth and residential valuations, against the backdrop of shelter comprising the largest component of the CPI. The softening real estate sector is offsetting some of the lift in gasoline prices. The Interactive Brokers Prediction Market, meanwhile, sees a 53%<\/a> possibility of a result ahead of 2.8%, amidst the \u201cYeses\u201d at 2.6% and 3% going for $0.97 and $0.04. Similarly, the monthly Reuters poll of 49 forecasters features minimum and maximum expectations of 2.8% and 3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 9, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tomorrow\u2019s May Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to climb 4.2% year over year (y\/y), the highest in 37 months, or since April 2023, as heavier energy costs from the Middle East war drive the indicator north. 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