{"id":243828,"date":"2026-06-03T12:55:37","date_gmt":"2026-06-03T16:55:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=243828"},"modified":"2026-06-04T04:40:07","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T08:40:07","slug":"worse-and-worser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/worse-and-worser\/","title":{"rendered":"Worse and Worser"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As we have discussed ad infinitum (or ad nauseam, if you prefer), money has been pouring into tech stocks \u2013 particularly the beneficiaries of the copious spending on all things related to artificial intelligence.  While it\u2019s certainly important, and frankly more fun, to focus on the market\u2019s winners, some well-known stocks and other financial instruments have been notable losers in recent days.  Let\u2019s take an unpleasant look at some.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First among them is bitcoin, along with other cryptocurrencies.  I\u2019ve recently been asked several times<\/a> why bitcoin has been a notable underperformer<\/a>.  One line of questioning wondered whether bitcoin was failing in its role as an inflation hedge.  My answer was succinct: Was it ever an inflation hedge?<\/a>  I ran various analyses of bitcoin versus the CPI and other inflation measures and could find no meaningful correlation between them.  That\u2019s OK \u2013 the same was true for gold.  Sometimes, gold acts as an \u201canti-dollar<\/a>,\u201d while sometimes it\u2019s a vehicle for speculation.  It can also fall during times of crisis if affected people sell their holdings to meet their cash needs.  If that\u2019s true for gold, why shouldn\u2019t that be the case for \u201cdigital gold,\u201d especially when it has been subject to various speculative swings throughout its relatively short existence. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the past couple of days, crypto bulls received some unpleasant news about some high-profile sales.  Mark Cuban announced that he had sold most of his bitcoin recently, noting<\/a>, \u201cThis might get some people upset: I think Bitcoin has lost the plot\u2026 It\u2019s not the hedge that I expected it to be and that was really disappointing.\u201d   The latest leg down was triggered by a small sale by Strategy (MSTR<\/a>).  The problem was not that there was a seller of 32 coins over the prior week, it was that the sales came from one of the cryptocurrency\u2019s greatest evangelists, a sworn \u201cHODL\u2019er\u201d who last sold in 2022.  The market did not seem to care that the sale was for largely technical reasons \u2013 to pay dividends on the company\u2019s preferred stock (STRC) \u2013 and instead realized that a persistent low level of bitcoin might indeed require further sales to facilitate those payments.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

6-Months, Bitcoin (red\/green candles), Ethereum (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

My prevailing theory for crypto\u2019s underperformance, particularly in the larger coins, goes back to a comment that I made in December<\/a>: \u201cBitcoin is for normies now.\u201d  This referred to the relative ease for non-crypto-focused investors to gain exposure through ETFs and easy access via a wide range of brokerage firms (such as IBKR).  Crypto became just one more speculative investment for those \u201cnormies,\u201d some of whom were nearing retirement age rather than the cohort of younger, earlier adopters.  Like so many other investors, they used these instruments to participate in the crypto runup that occurred before and in the months after the 2025 inauguration but then began to sour on them when they underperformed.  Frankly, if you\u2019re a momentum chaser, why wouldn\u2019t you chase semiconductors or other beneficiaries of AI spending at this point?  Sure, there are reasons to be nervous about those parabolic moves.  Thus, I\u2019m not advocating that everyone dump their poorer performing investments to chase the hottest ones, but it\u2019s clear that some have already done so and continue to do that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another sector that has been under pressure of late is listed exchanges.  Their recent swoon has some scratching their heads, and I was asked about it during a media appearance yesterday<\/a>.  The reason is one that demonstrates how momentum can work in the wrong direction. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

At first glance, the move is perplexing.  Stock, futures, and options volumes have remained robust, with options volumes experiencing a rapid, multi-year advance.  There is nothing on the immediate horizon that indicates a significant crack in those trends.  But the recent disclosure of some firms\u2019 plans to list perpetual futures<\/a> caught speculators in exchange stocks off-guard.  They fear that the rapid adoption of these contracts, which would not trade on these exchanges, could severely dent the exchanges\u2019 franchises.  Never mind that the initial listings will be limited to cryptocurrencies \u2013 a product whose diminished appeal we just discussed \u2013 and that there is nothing to preclude exchanges from listing their own similar products, trigger-happy traders sent the shares of publicly traded exchanges sharply lower.  Twitchy, aggressive trading interest is great when you\u2019re already on the right side of the market in question, not so great if you\u2019re caught offsides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1-Month Normalized Performance, ICE (white), CBOE (blue), NDAQ (red), CME (purple), MIAX (yellow)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3-Months Normalized Performance, ICE (white), CBOE (blue), NDAQ (red), CME (purple), MIAX (yellow)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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some.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":225104,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[14545,410,21660,320,35,12307,1633,4479,1594,21661,3922,14098,778,11370,702],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-243828","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-ai-stocks","15":"tag-bitcoin","16":"tag-bitcoin-underperformance","17":"tag-cboe","18":"tag-cme-group","19":"tag-crypto-market","20":"tag-cryptocurrency","21":"tag-digital-assets","22":"tag-ethereum","23":"tag-exchange-stocks","24":"tag-market-rotation","25":"tag-mstr","26":"tag-nasdaq","27":"tag-semiconductor-stocks","28":"tag-strategy","29":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWorse 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