{"id":243776,"date":"2026-06-02T13:09:14","date_gmt":"2026-06-02T17:09:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=243776"},"modified":"2026-06-02T16:52:28","modified_gmt":"2026-06-02T20:52:28","slug":"thursday-claims-with-forecastex-and-kalshi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/thursday-claims-with-forecastex-and-kalshi\/","title":{"rendered":"Thursday Claims with ForecastEx and Kalshi: June 2, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The newest addition to the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market includes contracts settled through Kalshi and the CME Group in addition to ForecastEx. This Thursday&#8217;s initial unemployment claims print provides an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/626425577\/product-details\/contracts?exchange=FORECASTX&amp;conid_yes=881158045\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">example<\/a> of an indicator listed by two different exchanges differently, with ForecastEx preceding each threshold with \u201cabove,\u201d while Kalshi uses \u201cat least\u201d before the statistic. The simple difference amongst the trade opportunities is that the former must arrive ahead of the number chosen to be profitable while the latter can come in equal to the figure to pay out $1.00. Additionally, the spreads across the venues can vary significantly, as you can see below, offering potential arbitrage possibilities for participants. Overall, though, this June 4 release is expected to land between 210k and 220k, which is in the same ballpark as the 213k median estimate in the monthly Reuters poll of 39 forecasters who have minimum and maximum projections of 205k and 225k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"858\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-5-1100x858.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-243780 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-5-1100x858.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-5-700x546.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-5-300x234.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-5-768x599.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/06\/image-5.png 1242w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/858;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>June 2, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The newest integration with the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market includes contracts settled through Kalshi and the CME Group in addition to ForecastEx. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":223537,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-243776","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - 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