{"id":243769,"date":"2026-06-02T11:45:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-02T15:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=243769"},"modified":"2026-06-03T03:32:11","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T07:32:11","slug":"what-stock-market-pessimists-may-be-missing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/what-stock-market-pessimists-may-be-missing\/","title":{"rendered":"What stock market pessimists may be missing"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\">Key takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The current pessimism is puzzling because it\u2019s happening at a time when key macro pressures appear to be easing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Strong earnings growth alongside a Federal Reserve that\u2019s on hold can be a constructive combination for markets.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This market cycle will end. It always does. But it typically hasn\u2019t ended with credit spreads tightening and inflation expectations falling.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I have growing anecdotal evidence that some investors think the market advance is too good to be true. That\u2019s largely based on conversations with friends and family. But it really struck me when several people felt the need to show me that a prominent financial TV host warned that one day we\u2019ll have a crash.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/stock-market-pessimists.html#1\">1<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;That\u2019s hardly news. All cycles end. That same pessimistic host also acknowledged that we don\u2019t know when.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A quick scroll through my business-related social media feed reinforces the point. The usual pessimists are out in force, arguing that an&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/what-is-inflation-fed-measure.html\">inflation<\/a>&nbsp;spiral is here, rates will keep rising, and the US debt story is finally unraveling. The long-awaited moment for the permabear has arrived. Or has it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-sometimes-facts-get-in-the-way\"><strong>Sometimes facts get in the way<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Compounding the skepticism is the nearly 200% two-month rise in the stock of a prominent memory-chip company,<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/stock-market-pessimists.html#2\">2<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;helping to drive an 18.5% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index over the same period.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/stock-market-pessimists.html#3\">3<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;To some, it feels unsustainable. Never mind that the company is only trading at 10x forward earnings.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/stock-market-pessimists.html#4\">4<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;Compare that to the 18 prior periods when the S&amp;P 500 rose by 18.5% or more over a two-month span. Returns were positive over the following six months in 16 of those instances, with an average gain of 10.6%.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/stock-market-pessimists.html#5\">5<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;Sometimes facts get in the way of the naysayers\u2019 good story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-easing-macro-pressures\"><strong>Easing macro pressures<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The skeptics will be right eventually. They usually are at some point. The issue is timing, and I think it\u2019s likely not now. What makes the current pessimism particularly puzzling is that it\u2019s happening at a moment when key macro pressures appear to be easing. Oil prices,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/what-is-interest-rate.html\">interest rates<\/a>, and inflation expectations have all shown signs of peaking.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/stock-market-pessimists.html#6\">6<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;Yes, the most recent 3.3% core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reading moved in the wrong direction,<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/stock-market-pessimists.html#7\">7<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;but markets were already aware of that. We\u2019ve also already seen the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/what-is-federal-reserve-inflation.html\">Federal Reserve<\/a>&nbsp;(Fed) rate cuts priced out with little disruption.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/stock-market-pessimists.html#8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">More importantly, the inflation breakeven has been drifting lower.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/stock-market-pessimists.html#9\">9<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;Markets appear increasingly comfortable with the idea that inflation isn\u2019t reaccelerating in a meaningful way. Geopolitical uncertainty remains. We don\u2019t know the resolution of the Iran war or the path for the Strait of Hormuz. But markets tend to discount outcomes well before they\u2019re realized, and there\u2019s a growing belief that these risks will eventually stabilize.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So, what are the naysayers missing?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-earnings-tell-a-strong-story\"><strong>Earnings tell a strong story<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First, earnings. US corporate earnings grew by 28% in the first quarter, well above the mid-single-digit expectations.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/stock-market-pessimists.html#10\">10<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;Prices haven\u2019t climbed at the same pace, meaning valuations have fallen.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/stock-market-pessimists.html#11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Second, the discount rate. Markets have already adjusted to a less accommodative Fed path. Inflation expectations have generally been moving lower in recent days,<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/stock-market-pessimists.html#12\">12<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;and it\u2019s difficult to see the Fed raising rates in this environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Strong earnings growth alongside a Fed that\u2019s on hold is a constructive combination in my view. If oil prices and interest rates continue to move lower together, it could also support a broadening in market leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The pessimist often sounds smart. The narrative is compelling. Yes, this cycle will end. It always does. But it typically doesn\u2019t end with credit spreads tightening<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/stock-market-pessimists.html#13\">13<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;and inflation expectations falling.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/stock-market-pessimists.html#14\">14<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;The permabears will eventually have their moment and likely remind everyone that they were right. But when it arrives,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/markets-seek-direction-not-perfection.html\">markets may be higher<\/a>&nbsp;than they have been today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-to-watch-this-week\">What to watch this week<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>Date<\/strong><\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>Region<\/strong><\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>Event<\/strong><\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>Why it matters<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">June 1<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">ISM Manufacturing Index (May)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Key gauge of factory activity and business conditions across the US economy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">China<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Caixin Manufacturing&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/what-is-purchasing-managers-index-pmi.html\">Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index<\/a>&nbsp;(PMI) (May)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Early read on factory activity and export demand<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Japan<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Manufacturing PMI (final)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Momentum in Japan\u2019s industrial sector and global trade exposure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Eurozone<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Manufacturing PMI (final)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Manufacturing health across the region and broader growth trends<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">UK<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Manufacturing PMI (final)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Provides insight into business activity and domestic demand conditions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Eurozone<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Unemployment rate (April)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Labor market strength, a key driver of consumer spending<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">June 2<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Eurozone<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Consumer Price Index (CPI) flash estimate (May)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Key inflation measure that shapes European Central Bank policy expectations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">June 3<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">China<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Services PMI (May)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Indicates strength of consumer-facing sectors and domestic demand<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">ADP Employment Report (May)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Early read on private-sector hiring ahead of official jobs report<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Factory orders (Apr)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Manufacturing demand trends and momentum<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">ISM Services Index (May)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Services sector activity, which drives most of US economic growth<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">June 4<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Productivity (Q1)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">How efficiently businesses are producing goods and services, with implications for inflation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">June 5<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Employment report (May)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Closely watched labor market release, shaping expectations for growth and interest rates<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Consumer credit (Apr)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Borrowing trends and consumer spending strength<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted June 1, 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/stock-market-pessimists.html?utm_campaign=thirdparty&amp;utm_source=ibrokers&amp;utm_medium=referralference\">What stock market pessimists may be missing<\/a> by Invesco US<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Footnotes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Source: Yahoo Finance, \u201cCNBC\u2019s Andrew Ross Sorkin Warns \u2018Crash Is Coming\u2019 \u2014 But CEOs Too \u2018Scared\u2019 to Stand Up to Trump,\u2019\u201d May 25, 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg L.P., May 27, 2026, based on the rise of the stock price of Micron Technologies from March 31, 2026 to May 27, 2026. The mention of individual companies is not intended as investment advice.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg L.P., May 27, 2026, based on the 18.5% return of the S&amp;P 500 Index from March 31, 2026 to May 27, 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg L.P., May 27, 2026, based on Bloomberg consensus expectations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg L.P., and Invesco Strategy &amp; Insights, as of May 28, 2026, based on daily data from Dec. 31, 1956 to May 28, 2026. The study examines periods where both the two-month return on the S&amp;P 500 exceeds 18.5% and the subsequent six-month return is positive. Adjacent trading days where these conditions are true are excluded from the analysis. Past performance does not guarantee future results. An investment cannot be made directly into an index.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg L.P., May 27, 2026, based on US West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil, the 10-year US Treasury rate, and the 5-year US inflation breakeven. A breakeven inflation rate is a market-derived estimate of future inflation, calculated by comparing the yield on a standard government bond (nominal) to the yield on a Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) of the same maturity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 2026<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg L.P., May 27, 2026, based on fed funds implied future rates.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg L.P., May 27, 2026, based on the 3- and 5-year US Treasury inflation breakeven.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg L.P., May 27, 2026, based on the earnings per share growth of the companies in the S&amp;P 500 Index and Bloomberg consensus expectations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg L.P., May 27, 2026, based on the price and price-to-earnings ratio of the S&amp;P 500 Index.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg L.P., May 27, 2026, based on the 3- and 5-year US Treasury inflation breakeven.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg L.P., May 27, 2026, based on the option-adjusted spread of the Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg L.P., May 27, 2026, based on US West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil, the 10-year US Treasury rate, and the 5-year US inflation breakeven.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Important information<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NA5531731<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investments cannot be made directly in an index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ADP Employment Report measures nonfarm private payrolls. It\u2019s published monthly in collaboration with Moody\u2019s Analytics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index measures the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. It includes US dollar-denominated securities publicly issued by US and non-US industrial, utility, and financial issuers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in consumer prices and is a commonly cited measure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Credit spread is the difference in yield between bonds of similar maturity but with different credit quality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A discount measures how much less one stock (or index) is trading compared with another stock (or index).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Earnings per share (EPS) refers to a company\u2019s total earnings divided by the number of outstanding shares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The federal funds rate is the rate at which banks lend balances to each other overnight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forward earnings per share is a variant of earnings per share and is calculated using a company\u2019s projected earnings over the next 12 months divided by the number of outstanding shares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A flash estimate is an early estimate for an economic data point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gross domestic product (GDP) is a broad indicator of a region\u2019s economic activity, measuring the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced in that region over a specified period of time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Implied futures rates are the specific interest rates that financial markets expect, or imply, will occur in the future, calculated from the prices of interest rate futures and forward contracts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Inflation is the rate at which the general price level for goods and services is increasing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ISM Manufacturing Index is based on Institute of Supply Management surveys of manufacturing firms in the US and monitors employment, production, inventories, new orders, and supplier deliveries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A market cycle is a trend or pattern that may exist in a given market environment, allowing some securities or asset classes to outperform others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Monetary easing refers to the lowering of interest rates and deposit ratios by central banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Option-adjusted spread (OAS) is the yield spread that must be added to a benchmark yield curve to discount a security\u2019s payments to match its market price, using a dynamic pricing model that accounts for embedded options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), or the PCE Index, measures price changes in consumer goods and services. Expenditures included in the index are actual US household expenditures. Core PCE excludes food and energy prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Purchasing Managers\u2019 Indexes (PMI) are based on monthly surveys of companies worldwide and gauge business conditions within the manufacturing and services sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The S&amp;P 500\u00ae Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of the US stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A spread in finance is the difference between two related values, such as prices, rates, or yields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a type of light, sweet crude oil that comes from the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In general, stock values fluctuate, sometimes widely, in response to activities specific to the company as well as general market, economic, and political conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The opinions referenced above are those of the author as of May 29, 2026. These comments should not be construed as recommendations, but as an illustration of broader themes. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The current pessimism is puzzling because it\u2019s happening at a time when key macro pressures appear to be easing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":177,"featured_media":215032,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13606],"class_list":["post-243769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-invesco-us"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What stock market pessimists may be missing<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The current pessimism is 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