{"id":243500,"date":"2026-05-27T12:55:22","date_gmt":"2026-05-27T16:55:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=243500"},"modified":"2026-05-28T04:19:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-28T08:19:14","slug":"five-econ-contracts-expiring-tomorrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/five-econ-contracts-expiring-tomorrow\/","title":{"rendered":"Five Econ Contracts Expiring Tomorrow: May 27, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

It\u2019s rare to see gross domestic product (GDP) grow in a quarter when corporate profits decline, as the two indicators are strongly correlated. The first three months of the year expanded at a strong 2% annualized rate for GDP, according to a preliminary release, and against this backdrop, there are potentially undervalued opportunities in the Interactive Brokers prediction market, in my view. I expect that corporate profits will be amplified during that time period and anticipate the results to be well above 0. Meanwhile, the \u201cYeses\u201d<\/a> at -2% and 0% are going for $0.53 and $0.36. They should carry heavier prices, in my opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

PCE Expected Around 3.8%<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Tomorrow\u2019s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is largely expected to come in at 3.8% year over year, and it\u2019s usually a well-telegraphed indicator since many of its inputs are available from inflation releases scheduled earlier in the month. In light of its historically subdued deviation rate, the \u201cYes\u201d<\/a> at 3.8% is going for $0.24, while the \u201cYes\u201d at 3.6% and the \u201cNo\u201d at 4% are priced at $0.96 and $0.95. Meanwhile, the monthly Reuters poll of 39 forecasters offers some alternative perspectives, as the minimum and maximum projections are 3.7% and 4%, signaling that there\u2019s potentially more room for an upside beat rather than a downside miss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Participants Anticipate an Ongoing Reacceleration<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Participants in the Interactive Brokers prediction market believe that the economy will continue reaccelerating as there\u2019s a 68%<\/a> chance that tomorrow\u2019s Dallas Fed figure will exceed its year-to-date average of 2.6%. Meanwhile, there are 36% and 22% odds of a number ahead of 2.8% or 3%. In 20 observations this year, 2.8% has been beat five times while 2.99%, the highest level of the year, was printed last Thursday. Under, the 2.4% \u201cYes\u201d is at $0.81, a threshold that has been conquered in 15 consecutive weeks.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Layoffs Expected to Be Tempered<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Layoffs are expected to be tempered in tomorrow\u2019s unemployment claims report, as the ongoing economic expansion is conducive to continued payroll expansions. The Interactive Brokers prediction market<\/a> anticipates a number around 212k, which closely mirrors the monthly Reuters poll of 39 forecasters. Indeed, the survey\u2019s median is 211k, although there are minimum and maximum projections of 200k and 216k. Against this backdrop, prediction market contracts ahead of tomorrow\u2019s release price the \u201cYeses\u201d at 200k and 210k at $0.87 and $0.60, while the \u201cNo\u201d at 220k is at $0.90, signaling a narrow range of potential outcomes, relatively speaking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

New Home Sales Could Be Flat<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

New home sales are expected to be flat when released tomorrow as heavy mortgage rates, lofty valuations and challenging affordability conditions weigh on construction activity. In March, 682k seasonally adjusted annualized units were sold; however, the April \u201cYeses\u201d across the 600k, 650k, 700k and 750k thresholds are priced at $0.86, $0.61, $0.38 and $0.10, indicating a likely outcome around 670k within the Interactive Brokers prediction market. Similarly, the Reuters poll of 42 forecasters carries a median of 665k, amidst minimum and maximum values of 600k and 710k. This indicator is difficult to project and sustains an elevated deviation rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 27, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s rare to see gross domestic product (GDP) grow in a quarter when corporate profits decline, as the two indicators are strongly correlated. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":237369,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[4434],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-243500","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-corporate-earnings","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFive Econ Contracts Expiring Tomorrow: May 27, 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