{"id":243243,"date":"2026-05-21T13:02:19","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T17:02:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=243243"},"modified":"2026-05-21T14:27:06","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T18:27:06","slug":"how-much-will-umich-sentiment-be-revised","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/how-much-will-umich-sentiment-be-revised\/","title":{"rendered":"How Much Will UMich Sentiment Be Revised?: May 21, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Tomorrow\u2019s revision to the University of Michigan\u2019s Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to feature a modest upgrade from the 48.2 record low, as the Interactive Brokers prediction market prices the 48 \u201cYes\u201d at $0.71<\/a>. A sharp adjustment north to 50 or 52 is improbable, however, considering that the historical absolute average and median changes from the preliminary to the final are 1 and 0.7, signaling an elevated likelihood of a range between 47.2 and 49.2. The \u201cNos\u201d at those upper thresholds (50, 52) appear relatively attractive and undervalued in my opinion at $0.70 and $0.89. Under at 46 meanwhile, there\u2019s an 87% chance of the result not falling to that level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 21, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tomorrow\u2019s revision to the University of Michigan\u2019s Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to feature a modest upgrade from the 48.2 record low, as the Interactive Brokers prediction market prices the 48 \u201cYes\u201d at 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