{"id":243135,"date":"2026-05-20T13:15:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-20T17:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=243135"},"modified":"2026-05-21T02:18:07","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T06:18:07","slug":"some-midweek-relief","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/some-midweek-relief\/","title":{"rendered":"Some Midweek Relief"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In the current market environment, three down days in a row is a long streak.&nbsp; It\u2019s not at all surprising that stocks would look for a chance to rebound after a modest drop, even if it would be considered insignificant under normal circumstances.&nbsp; The key to today\u2019s reaction started in the bond market, where the recent jump in yields was indeed relatively momentous.&nbsp; It then continued when oil dropped after some optimistic comments about Iran from the President.&nbsp; The pattern continues\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stocks took another leg higher at 11:15 ET after a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-05-20\/treasuries-rally-as-trump-cites-final-stages-of-us-iran-talks\">White House pool report emerged<\/a> with a comment from the President saying the US was in the \u201cfinal stages\u201d of talks with Iran.&nbsp; That certainly seems like a solid reason for a combined move higher in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, alongside a drop in oil futures.&nbsp; But these moves were already in effect well before that key headline.&nbsp; It turns out that the pool report was utilizing comments that were made by the President at Joint Base Andrews as he boarded a flight to Connecticut to address the graduates of the Coast Guard Academy in New London (huzzah!). Thus, although many traders had not seen the full report, news of that comment had clearly taken root among traders in the affected assets shortly after it was made around 10 AM.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although we have commented that the recent decline in major stock indices is historically modest, that is not the case for the jump in bond yields over the past week.&nbsp; The 10-year yield was 4.41% last Monday, the day prior to the most recent CPI report.&nbsp; Yesterday, six trading days later, that same yield was 4.67%. It\u2019s not typical for yields to jump by more than \u00bc% in a week, and stock traders should be thankful that the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) fell by less than 1% during the same span.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then again, the market demonstrates very low expectations for volatility.&nbsp; The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has been mired in the high teens for weeks and showed little inclination to bounce even during Friday\u2019s selloff or yesterday\u2019s more modest drop.&nbsp; Part of that can be explained by the relatively low levels of correlation among index components.&nbsp; The COR1M Index (Cboe 1-Month Implied Correlation Index) has been dragging itself along at relatively depressed levels over the past few weeks.&nbsp; The latter is not quite at its 1-year lows, but it is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/complacency-or-correlation\/?query=cor1M&amp;query_id=Yp7LanGgTwaNzcw3soFzvA&amp;index=engine-name-placeholder&amp;user_token=Yp7LanGgTwaNzcw3soFzvA\">by no means boosting volatility<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-year-vix-daily-candles-cor1m-blue-line\"><strong><em>1-Year, VIX (daily candles), COR1M (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1014\" height=\"570\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-57.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-243136 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-57.png 1014w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-57-700x393.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-57-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-57-768x432.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1014px) 100vw, 1014px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1014px; aspect-ratio: 1014\/570;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have previously mentioned the sort of ratchet effect that accompanies positive rhetoric about the situation in the Persian Gulf.&nbsp; Stocks and bonds rally (yields fall) and oil sinks whenever there is positive news about peace talks or a possible resolution to the war.&nbsp; Yet the aftereffects have differed since the end of March.&nbsp; When the talks lead nowhere, as they unfortunately have done multiple times, yields and oil return to their now-prevailing uptrends but stocks suffer no lasting ill effects.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019ll see if that continues in the coming days.&nbsp; We have our usual hopes that today\u2019s comments about the final stages of the war prove to be true, though we retain our now-well-earned skepticism that it will be the case immediately (especially when followed by comments like \u201cwe\u2019ll see what happens\u201d and \u201cwe\u2019re going to do some things that are a little bit nasty, but hopefully that won\u2019t happen\u201d).&nbsp; It is more likely that this afternoon\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/bonds-a-bummer-ahead-of-big-earnings\/\">highly anticipated Nvidia (NVDA) earnings<\/a> will set the tone for tomorrow&#8217;s trading.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the current market environment, three down days in a row is a long streak.\u00a0 It\u2019s not at all surprising that stocks would look for a chance to rebound after a modest drop, even if it would be considered insignificant under normal circumstances.\u00a0 The key to today\u2019s reaction started in the bond market, where the recent jump in yields was indeed relatively momentous.\u00a0 It then continued when oil dropped after some optimistic comments about Iran from the President.\u00a0 The pattern continues\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":243138,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[17767,4231,4109,4232,860],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-243135","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-nvidia-earnings","15":"tag-oil-prices","16":"tag-stock-market","17":"tag-treasury-yields","18":"tag-volatility","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. 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