{"id":243125,"date":"2026-05-20T12:40:59","date_gmt":"2026-05-20T16:40:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=243125"},"modified":"2026-05-20T12:44:27","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T16:44:27","slug":"tech-rally-at-the-edge-is-the-market-running-on-borrowed-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/tech-rally-at-the-edge-is-the-market-running-on-borrowed-time\/","title":{"rendered":"Tech Rally at the Edge: Is the Market Running on Borrowed Time?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In this IBKR Midweek Minute, Scott Bauer joins Jeff Praissman to discuss whether the tech-driven market rally is running on borrowed time as stocks push to record highs. They break down inflation, rising yields and Fed policy uncertainty to assess whether the current momentum can last.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Tech Rally at the Edge: Is the Market Running on Borrowed Time?\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=3ppbt-1acbe88-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-386\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 386<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Hi, everyone. This is Jeff Praissman with Interactive Brokers Podcast, and\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0my pleasure to welcome back to the podcast studio Scott Bauer from Prosper Trading Academy. Hey, Scott. How are you?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeff, all is well here in Chicago. How about you?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-0\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s\u00a0all good here in Connecticut as well. And I love these Wednesday mornings when you come over to the\u00a0studio\u00a0and we\u00a0talk\u00a0a little market activity. And for our listeners, even before we get started, to get more from Scott, you can just go to prospertrading.com or find many great articles and podcasts on our website, ibkr.com, and click on Education. So, Scott, last week stocks hit a record high. You know,\u00a0they&#8217;re\u00a0led by tech and AI names.\u00a0Yeah, how sustainable is this rally given, you know, rising inflation and higher yields?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-0\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I mean,\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0been\u00a0pretty\u00a0incredible\u00a0and, you know, the buy into these tech stocks has been\u00a0really aggressive. However, you know, it looks like the broader macro backdrop might be, you know, a bit more restrictive. We&#8217;re looking at the Fed raising rates potentially later in the year and, you know, that divergence is really kind of honing in that maybe the equity rally is becoming increasingly dependent on just too few stocks and not as broad as we saw it maybe even just a month ago.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-1\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And well, one thing I did find\u00a0interesting\u00a0that, you know, retail sales\u00a0came in\u00a0pretty solid, but\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0kinda\u00a0conflicting, right? At least mentally because, like, you know,\u00a0there&#8217;s\u00a0been some rising delinquencies, and obviously inflation pressures\u00a0remain. I mean, everyone knows how expensive everything is right now. What do you think this says about the real health of the consumer?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-1\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I mean, the consumer is so, so resilient, and so far it seems like all the higher, you know, gas pump prices that we&#8217;re all paying maybe it hasn&#8217;t hit some of the data just yet, but we are seeing this K economy. We are seeing it diverge even more so. And if you look at some of the retail sales data,\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0some of those more expensive items like furniture and home furnishing store sales, which were down, you know,\u00a0fairly considerably. Cars were down. So even though overall spending is there,\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0kind of at\u00a0that, you know, that top line there. Consumers are really focused on more of their recurring expenses, things that they need to spend on right now. So even though\u00a0the resiliency\u00a0is there, I think\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0starting to wane a little bit.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-2\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Got it. And, you know, Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the Fed\u00a0chair\u00a0and, you know, kind of, you know, officially\u00a0signaling like\u00a0sort of more of a restrictive stance. Like, how should investors think about rate cuts or even, you know, hikes from here?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-2\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah.\u00a0And you know, we\u00a0have to\u00a0follow the bond market.\u00a0And even Warsh, as much as he would like to lower rates, contends\u00a0that&#8217;s\u00a0really not\u00a0possible right now.\u00a0So\u00a0we&#8217;ll\u00a0get the minutes later today, and\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0really\u00a0gonna\u00a0say how hawkish the entire FOMC\u00a0maybe has\u00a0become.\u00a0So\u00a0I think, you know,\u00a0he&#8217;s\u00a0in a\u00a0really difficult\u00a0spot because his\u00a0goal\u00a0mandate in general is to get rates lowered, and that&#8217;s not\u00a0gonna\u00a0happen anytime soon.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-3\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And as always, we have so much data coming out in a couple of weeks. What should markets watch for with the upcoming FOMC minutes and Fed speeches? And you think\u00a0there&#8217;s\u00a0any sign of policy divergence or concerns about inflation?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-3\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Well,\u00a0I think the concerns\u00a0are still\u00a0there\u00a0and maybe they have even gotten a bit deeper. And I think\u00a0we&#8217;ll\u00a0hear that in the minutes, that\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0not\u00a0maybe just, you know, sticky anymore, but it is really an issue.\u00a0So\u00a0in these minutes, as we just discussed, I would expect the focus really to be on how far, you know, to the hawkish side\u00a0maybe the\u00a0entire committee has been. And then\u00a0we&#8217;ll\u00a0get, you know, as you said, a bunch of Fed speakers afterwards. But to me the focus really is going to be, are they looking to hike rates this year, early next year? When is that going to be?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-4\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Mm-hmm. And finally, with PMI and jobless claims due, could these data points shift expectations around growth in the Fed&#8217;s next move?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-4\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>There&#8217;s\u00a0no question about that because especially PMI, which is the Flash Purchasing Managers Index, that data covers not just here in the U.S., but Eurozone, UK, Japan, Australia. We get that from S&amp;P Global.\u00a0So\u00a0we&#8217;re\u00a0gonna\u00a0get with those numbers a really\u00a0timely\u00a0read on the overall global economy. And even though maybe consumers here\u00a0aren&#8217;t\u00a0feeling it or\u00a0aren&#8217;t\u00a0feeling the higher prices at the gas pump just yet, is that really hitting in other parts of the world?\u00a0That and\u00a0how are higher rates really hitting people?\u00a0So\u00a0I think this\u00a0is a good one because this is not just isolating here in the U.S.,\u00a0it&#8217;s\u00a0really global.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-5\">Jeff Praissman<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Scott, as always, this has been great. For our listeners, this is Scott Bauer from Prosper Trading Academy. Comes in every other Wednesday and gives us a rundown of the past week of the market and the week ahead.\u00a0Thanks, Scott. Looking forward to next time we see you.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-5\">Scott Bauer<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks a lot, Jeff.\u00a0<br><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In this IBKR Midweek Minute, Scott Bauer joins Jeff Praissman to discuss whether the tech-driven market rally is running on borrowed time as stocks push to record highs. 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