{"id":243001,"date":"2026-05-18T12:39:46","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T16:39:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=243001"},"modified":"2026-05-18T17:44:21","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T21:44:21","slug":"forecasters-narrowly-expect-first-gas-price-decline-in-4-weeks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/forecasters-narrowly-expect-first-gas-price-decline-in-4-weeks\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasters Narrowly Expect First Gas Price Decline in 4 Weeks: May 18, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecasters in the Interactive Brokers prediction market narrowly expect the first weekly decline in gasoline prices in the past four to hit the wires in less than 24 hours. The previous print from last Tuesday was $4.50 per gallon. Meanwhile, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/app\/?loginType=2&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0#\/751047548\/product-details\/contracts?exchange=FORECASTX&amp;conid_yes=878753259\">\u201cYes\u201d<\/a> at that threshold for tomorrow\u2019s publication is costing $0.47. The pricing signals a 53% chance of lessening pain at the pump for the upcoming report. But investors project the result to be remain in the vicinity, as the \u201cYeses\u201d at $4.45 and $4.55 are going for $0.90 and $0.07, implying a projected headline figure of $4.48, which would mark a marginal $0.02 decrease.<em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1081\" height=\"677\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-47.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-243003 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-47.png 1081w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-47-700x438.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-47-300x188.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-47-768x481.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1081px) 100vw, 1081px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1081px; aspect-ratio: 1081\/677;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-canada-housing-to-remain-weak\"><strong>Canada Housing to Remain Weak <\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ongoing slump in the Canadian real estate sector is expected to continue, as the nation\u2019s New Housing Price Index has only reflected one increase in the past 13 months, in February. Forecasters remain downbeat about tomorrow\u2019s print for April, as it features just a 4% chance of a number above 0, even though 0 is the median estimate for the upcoming publication. Meanwhile, a beat at 0.1% or over would return $1.00 back on a $0.04 investment if it were to come in positive, and that trade looks like an undervalued one to me, simply too cheap to be that close to consensus. Deeper in the minuses, furthermore, participants see 49% and 86% odds of statistics north of -0.2% or -0.4%.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1082\" height=\"673\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-46.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-243002 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-46.png 1082w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-46-700x435.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-46-300x187.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-46-768x478.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1082px) 100vw, 1082px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1082px; aspect-ratio: 1082\/673;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>May 18, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Forecasters in the Interactive Brokers prediction market narrowly expect the first weekly decline in gasoline prices in the past four to hit the wires in less than 24 hours. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":208057,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[815],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-243001","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-gasoline","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecasters Narrowly Expect First Gas Price Decline in 4 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In this capacity, he is responsible for economic analysis, economic commentary and educational content focused on the economy. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Jos\u00e9 spent 6 years working as an economist in the United States government within the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). During his time with the U.S. government, Jos\u00e9 frequently led presentations covering economic conditions and forecasts for elected officials, political appointees and senior management. He also built economic models, consulted with private sector executives, contributed to the modernization of economic processes and gained recognition for predicting the inflationary episode of the 2020s. Jos\u00e9 has also been a professor of economics at the City University of New York and holds a master\u2019s degree in financial economics from West Texas A&amp;M University. His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/06\/gas-pump-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/243001","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=243001"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/243001\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/208057"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=243001"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=243001"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=243001"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=243001"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}