{"id":242793,"date":"2026-05-14T13:01:30","date_gmt":"2026-05-14T17:01:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=242793"},"modified":"2026-05-14T18:37:57","modified_gmt":"2026-05-14T22:37:57","slug":"industrial-production-yes-at-1-is-undervalued","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/industrial-production-yes-at-1-is-undervalued\/","title":{"rendered":"Industrial Production \u201cYes\u201d at 1% Is Undervalued: May 14, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Tomorrow\u2019s release of industrial production data is expected to reflect an annualized increase of 1%, but the \u201cYes\u201d at that specific threshold is going for $0.32<\/a>. In my opinion, there\u2019s a better chance of a beat than a miss considering that March\u2019s figure was particularly weak against the backdrop of a manufacturing sector that has been strengthening in other surveys. I\u2019m projecting that April\u2019s print will depict a robust improvement from the prior period\u2019s sluggish performance and think the \u201cYes\u201d carries a fair value of $0.60, offering Interactive Brokers prediction market participants a potential opportunity to earn $1.00 back on a result as low as 1.1%. Still, it’s important to note this indicator\u2019s historic volatility as illustrated by the 47 forecasters in the monthly Reuters poll ranging from\u00a0 0.2%, to as high as 1.3%.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 14, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tomorrow\u2019s release of industrial production data is expected to reflect an annualized increase of 1%, but the \u201cYes\u201d at that specific threshold is going for $0.32. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":181760,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,26,3],"tags":[720],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-242793","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-industrial-production","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIndustrial Production \u201cYes\u201d at 1% Is 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