{"id":242699,"date":"2026-05-12T15:59:05","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T19:59:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=242699"},"modified":"2026-05-12T18:29:43","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T22:29:43","slug":"4-4-yes-is-undervalued-for-tomorrows-ppi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/4-4-yes-is-undervalued-for-tomorrows-ppi\/","title":{"rendered":"4.4% \u201cYes\u201d Is Undervalued for Tomorrow\u2019s PPI: May 12, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/727520267\/product-details\/contracts?exchange=FORECASTX&amp;conid_yes=859476742\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">IBKR prediction market<\/a> places a 59% chance that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) will exceed 4.4% tomorrow, a low bar when analyzing the gauge\u2019s sensitivity to rising food and energy costs. Additionally, the monthly Reuter\u2019s poll of 21 forecasters stands at a median of 4.9%, which is much further, at 50 basis points north of the 4.4% threshold. In my view, the $0.59 price for the \u201cYes\u201d at the 4.4% threshold is undervalued, even as the minimum projection in the survey is at 4.2%. The 4.4% level should be a breeze for the PPI to clear. Consider the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The March print reflected the impact of higher oil prices, but since then, rising energy costs have further spread throughout the economy as demonstrated by today\u2019s hotter-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI). In a similar manner to the CPI, the spreading impact of higher energy costs throughout the economy is likely to push the PPI considerably higher than 4.4%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The PPI is more levered to food and energy than the CPI and it is a relatively volatile indicator. Therefore, it\u2019s poised to accelerate at a much faster pace than the CPI, which came in at 3.8% this morning. For context, March\u2019s CPI and PPI numbers came in at 3.3% and 4%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Additionally, March\u2019s PPI results seemed subdued and were a colossal downside miss, as those loftier fuel charges potentially hadn\u2019t fully made it through supply chains, positioning tomorrow\u2019s print to possibly beat to the upside.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For investors seeking exposure to \u201cYes\u201d offerings with lower hurdles, the IBKR prediction market includes contracts with thresholds of 4% and 4.2% that are priced at $0.86, $0.73 and are also undervalued in my opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"786\" height=\"430\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-37.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-242701 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-37.png 786w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-37-700x383.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-37-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-37-768x420.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 786px) 100vw, 786px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 786px; aspect-ratio: 786\/430;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"212\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-36.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-242700 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-36.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-36-700x159.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-36-300x68.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-36-768x174.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/212;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the afternoon of <a>May 12, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The IBKR prediction market places a 59% chance that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) will exceed 4.4% tomorrow, a low bar when analyzing the gauge\u2019s sensitivity to rising food and energy costs. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":206628,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[40,4505],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-242699","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-oil","tag-producer-price-index","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>4.4% \u201cYes\u201d Is 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