{"id":242535,"date":"2026-05-07T13:12:49","date_gmt":"2026-05-07T17:12:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=242535"},"modified":"2026-05-07T18:16:26","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T22:16:26","slug":"tomorrows-nonfarm-payrolls-expected-around-73k","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/tomorrows-nonfarm-payrolls-expected-around-73k\/","title":{"rendered":"Tomorrow\u2019s Nonfarm Payrolls Expected Around 73K: May 7, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tomorrow\u2019s nonfarm payroll release data is expected to show an April addition of around 73k workers, according to pricing in the Interactive Brokers prediction market. The result would be a deceleration from March\u2019s 178k. Indeed, the 50k \u201cYes\u201d is going for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/market-details?id=582530257%7C20260508%7C50000%7CApril%202026%7Cexchange%3DFORECASTX\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">$0.69<\/a> while the 100k and 150k \u201cNos\u201d are offered at $0.64 and $0.85. Participants have been attentive to alternative labor numbers on the economic calendar that have generally signaled healthy conditions conducive to ongoing headcount expansions. Meanwhile, the monthly Reuters poll of 69 forecasters carries a median of 62k against the backdrop of minimum and maximum projections of -15k and 150k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"176\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-19-1100x176.png\" alt=\"IBKR predictive contract regarding US payroll additions\" class=\"wp-image-242539 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/176;width:847px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-19-1100x176.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-19-700x112.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-19-300x48.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-19-768x123.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-19.png 1447w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"756\" height=\"579\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-21.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR predictive contracts regarding US payroll additions\" class=\"wp-image-242541 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 756px; aspect-ratio: 756\/579;aspect-ratio:1.3056867009458444;width:846px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-21.png 756w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-21-700x536.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-21-300x230.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 756px) 100vw, 756px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-unemployment-expected-steady\"><strong>Unemployment Expected Steady<em> <\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The US unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3%, as the Interactive Brokers prediction market sees a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/market-details?id=573031117%7C20260508%7C4.2%7CApril%202026%7Cexchange%3DFORECASTX\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> 64%<\/a> chance of a number ahead of 4.2% as well as 96% and 95% probabilities of a figure of 4.1% or higher or a statistic less than or equal to 4.4%. The monthly Reuters poll of 67 forecasters envisions a narrow range of potential outcomes, too, in light of the indicator\u2019s lack of deviation, with a median of 4.3% against the backdrop of minimum and maximum values of 4.2% and 4.4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"145\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-24-1100x145.png\" alt=\"IBKR predictive contract regarding US unemployment rate\" class=\"wp-image-242544 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/145;aspect-ratio:7.58583998143602;width:871px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-24-1100x145.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-24-700x92.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-24-300x40.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-24-768x101.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-24.png 1440w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"748\" height=\"715\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-22.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR predictive contracts regarding US unemployment rate\" class=\"wp-image-242542 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 748px; aspect-ratio: 748\/715;width:872px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-22.png 748w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-22-700x669.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-22-300x287.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 748px) 100vw, 748px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-canada-unemployment-projected-at-6-6\"><strong>Canada Unemployment Projected At 6.6% <\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Canadian unemployment rate is much more volatile than the American one, and pricing in the Interactive Brokers prediction market reflects that reality. The \u201cNo\u201d at the 6.6% threshold is priced at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/market-details?id=773080482%7C20260508%7C6.6%7CApril%202026%7Cexchange%3DFORECASTX\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">$0.57<\/a>, while the \u201cYes\u201d at 6.4% and the \u201cNo\u201d at 6.8% are going for $.90 and $0.80, after March\u2019s figure came in at 6.7%. But despite the datapoint\u2019s wild swings in recent years, the monthly Reuters poll of 16 forecasters is pretty narrow, as a median estimate of 6.7% contends with minimum and maximum entries of 6.6% and 6.8%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"130\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-20-1100x130.png\" alt=\"IBKR predictive contract regarding Canada unemployment \" class=\"wp-image-242540 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/130;aspect-ratio:8.461994981045553;width:884px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-20-1100x130.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-20-700x82.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-20-300x35.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-20-768x90.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-20.png 1443w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"756\" height=\"744\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-23.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR predictive contracts regarding Canada unemployment rate\" class=\"wp-image-242543 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 756px; aspect-ratio: 756\/744;aspect-ratio:1.0161373379803165;width:883px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-23.png 756w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-23-700x689.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-23-300x295.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 756px) 100vw, 756px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>May 7, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tomorrow\u2019s nonfarm payroll release data is expected to show an April addition of around 73k workers, according to pricing in the Interactive Brokers prediction market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":113983,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-242535","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - 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